5:45 Roscommon
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden for two-year-olds over 7½f at Roscommon on good ground brings together a dozen largely unproven runners in a race that lacks depth. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with the selection Someday Somewhere heading the numbers on 57, followed closely by Cashel Queen, Matavai Bay, Hypiradon and Green Sparkle. Most of the field arrive with limited experience and modest form, underlining that this is an ordinary contest where the first horse to show significant improvement could take advantage.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. With several runners likely to be held up, including the selection and Cashel Queen, the key question will be whether those positioned prominently early can maintain their effort or if the race will fall into the laps of those delivered late. Matavai Bay is the one with prominent run-style and may try to make the most of that in a race where the fractions could be kind to those up with the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Someday Somewhere KTB Selection57/100Someday Somewhere has shown ordinary form in two runs so far, finishing third then fourth without suggesting he is well above average.
- 2Cashel Queen53/100Fair filly who has shown consistent form in three starts, finishing placed twice at this trip including a solid second last time.
- 3Matavai Bay52/100Lightly raced colt who has shown very little in two starts to date, finishing sixth of seven then last of six.
- 4Hypiradon51/100Hypiradon has shown little in two starts to date, finishing sixth then last.
- 5Green Sparkle50/100Green Sparkle has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth and then last.
- 6Nando Royale50/100Placed third on debut here over this trip and improved to finish sixth in a stronger race last time.
- 7Pints Of Glory48/100Pints Of Glory showed fair form when finishing fourth on debut then sixth last time.
- 8Prince Of Peppard46/100Prince Of Peppard has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth then sixth.
- 9Luca Brillante43/100Lightly raced colt who showed modest form when finishing sixth then seventh in two starts over 6f.
- 10Captain James Cook41/100Captain James Cook has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions.
- 11Eighteenth Smiles41/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in five runs, finishing no closer than fifth.
- 12Honey Deuce39/100Honey Deuce has shown little in two starts so far, finishing sixth then ninth.
The contenders
Someday Somewhere KTB Fit 57/100
Someday Somewhere has shown ordinary form in two runs so far, finishing third then fourth without suggesting he is well above average. He steps up to 7½f today having already tried the trip once without success, which poses a fresh question at this early stage. Trainer Stephen Thorne has a 100% strike rate at Roscommon from one run, while W J Lee takes the mount with an 11% strike rate at the track from 322 rides. The colt is competitive on good ground having been placed once from one run, though he has no course form on record. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find improvement in what looks a steadily-run affair where being handy pays. Overall the picture remains modest but he tops the KTB Fit ratings.
Cashel Queen KTB Fit 53/100
Cashel Queen is a fair filly who has shown consistent form in three starts, finishing placed twice at this trip including a solid second last time. She now steps back up to 7½f which looks a fair fit on what she has done. The yard of Donnacha Aidan O'Brien has a 10% strike rate at Roscommon from 10 runs, while the 5lb claimer Paddy Harnett is aboard. She has been placed once from two runs on good ground and holds no course form. Usually held up and producing her effort late with medium confidence, she should be suited by the steadily-run, tactical nature of the race. Her consistency gives her a solid place in the KTB Fit order.
Matavai Bay KTB Fit 52/100
Matavai Bay is a lightly raced colt who has shown very little in two starts to date, finishing sixth of seven then last of six. He steps up from 6f to 7.5f today which asks a fresh question at this stage. Trainer Kevin Thomas Coleman holds a solid 12% strike rate at Roscommon from 26 runs, and Shane Foley is in the saddle with a 10% strike rate at the track from 338 rides. He has one run on good ground without placing. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he could be well positioned in a race lacking a leader where being prominent is likely to pay. The KTB Fit score places him right in the mix despite the modest form.
Hypiradon KTB Fit 51/100
Hypiradon has shown little in two starts to date, finishing sixth then last. He steps up in trip now having already been tried over this distance without success. The trainer Kevin Thomas Coleman holds a 12% strike rate at Roscommon from 26 runs, though jockey Rory Cleary has a 3% strike rate at the track from 329 rides. He has one run on good ground without placing and holds no course form. Typically settling in midfield, he will look to find a rhythm in what is expected to be a steadily-run, tactical contest. His KTB Fit score keeps him among the principals despite the limited promise shown so far.
Green Sparkle KTB Fit 50/100
Green Sparkle has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth and then last. The step up to 7½f looks a fair question and first-time headgear is now applied, but with only two runs on the board the overall picture remains very unclear. Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a solid 20% strike rate at Roscommon from 279 runs, and Declan McDonogh takes the ride with a 13% strike rate at the track from 437 rides. He is unproven on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to unfold favourably in a tactical affair. The application of headgear offers a possible spark in a modest profile.
The rest of the field
Nando RoyaleKTB Fit 50/100
Nando Royale placed third on debut here over this trip and improved to finish sixth in a stronger race last time. Lightly raced with only two runs on the board so the form has to be treated with caution. Trainer Gavin Cromwell has a solid 12% strike rate at the track from 189 runs and the colt has been placed once from two runs on good ground.
Pints Of GloryKTB Fit 48/100
Pints Of Glory showed fair form when finishing fourth on debut then sixth last time. Dropping back from a mile to today's 7½f looks a sensible move though he has already been beaten twice at the trip. Trainer Gordon Lyons has a solid 17% strike rate from 291 runs at Roscommon while Colin Keane takes the ride.
Prince Of PeppardKTB Fit 46/100
Prince Of Peppard has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth then sixth. He now steps up to an untested 7½f with first-time headgear applied. The trainer J P Murtagh holds a 14% strike rate at Roscommon from 121 runs.
Luca BrillanteKTB Fit 43/100
Luca Brillante is a lightly raced colt who showed modest form when finishing sixth then seventh in two starts over 6f. He steps up to an untested 7½f today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Dermot Weld has a solid 14% strike rate at Roscommon from a large sample.
Captain James CookKTB Fit 41/100
Captain James Cook has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions. He steps up to 7½f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard of A P O'Brien has a modest 13% strike rate from 292 runs at Roscommon.
Eighteenth SmilesKTB Fit 41/100
Eighteenth Smiles is a modest performer who has shown little spark in five runs, finishing no closer than fifth. Steps up to 7½f for the first time today having failed to trouble the judge when tried at the trip last time. First-time headgear is now applied.
Honey DeuceKTB Fit 39/100
Honey Deuce has shown little in two starts so far, finishing sixth then ninth. The trip rise looks an open question with no placed form at this distance. Trainer strike rate here is modest at 5% from 19 runs while the small sample means going suitability remains unknown.
KTB verdict
Someday Somewhere tops the KTB Fit ratings and is taken as the selection in a race where most of the field have shown only modest form at best. He has an ordinary profile from two starts but benefits from the trainer's perfect if limited record at Roscommon and the booking of W J Lee. The steadily-run nature of the race could suit his held-up style if the leaders come back to him. Cashel Queen looks the main danger on the back of consistent placed efforts and a yard that knows the track, while Matavai Bay could capitalise on his prominent run-style in a tactical contest. The remainder largely make up the numbers at this stage.
KTB Selection Someday Somewhere
This is the narrative read of the 5:45 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the trainer with a 100% strike rate at Roscommon?
Someday Somewhere, whose trainer Stephen Thorne has a 100% strike rate at Roscommon from one run.
How many runs has Cashel Queen had and what is her best recent effort?
Cashel Queen has had three runs, with placed efforts twice at this trip including a solid second last time.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Green Sparkle, Prince Of Peppard and Eighteenth Smiles are all wearing first-time headgear.
What is the course record for Nando Royale?
Nando Royale has one run at Roscommon, finishing third over this trip on debut.
Which horse is dropping back in trip from a mile?
Pints Of Glory is dropping back from a mile to today's 7½f.
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