6:15 Roscommon
This Irish EBF Auction Series contest over 7½f at Roscommon brings together a field of nine two-year-olds on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings suggest a fairly competitive heat, headed by Seven Nation Army on 59, with Green Dreamer, Noble Agenda and Gabby Hayes completing the principals between 48 and 53. With only tentative pace information available, the race lacks a clear leader on paper and could develop into a tactical affair.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with medium confidence, pointing to a possible front-runner but on thin evidence. Sword Of State is the only horse noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, while the majority of the field – including the top three in the KTB Fit order – are held-up types who produce their effort late. This raises the key question of whether the race will unfold at a genuine gallop or become a sprint for the line, with those racing prominently potentially gaining an advantage if the pace is modest.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Seven Nation Army KTB Selection59/100Useful colt who showed his best form when winning a 7f maiden last time and has already scored once over today's trip.
- 2Green Dreamer53/100Green Dreamer showed fair promise when winning a maiden over this trip on debut and backed that up with a solid fifth in a stronger race over a mile last time.
- 3Noble Agenda52/100Noble Agenda made a winning start over 7f and now steps up to today's 7½f trip where he already has a 1-from-1 record.
- 4Gabby Hayes48/100Gabby Hayes showed little on debut when finishing ninth over 7f.
- 5Emotional Hedging47/100Emotional Hedging showed promise when second on debut over 6f.
- 6Sword Of State44/100Lightly raced with just two runs this year and a low data confidence rating so this has to be treated with caution.
- 7Lars Soldier44/100Lars Soldier is a fair 2-year-old with solid placed form at this level and a recent string of consistent efforts.
- 8Grit And Glory43/100Grit And Glory has a single run behind him and steps up from 7f to today's 7½f trip having already tried the distance once without success.
- 9Oristown Boy40/100Oristown Boy is a fair sort who showed his best when winning a 7f maiden last time and has already won once in two starts at this trip.
The contenders
Seven Nation Army KTB Fit 59/100
Seven Nation Army arrives with the highest KTB Fit rating of 59 and is the clear selection. This useful colt showed his best form when landing a 7f maiden last time and has already scored once over today's trip. He was well held on his only previous run at Roscommon, however, and now steps up in distance having looked more comfortable at seven furlongs. Joseph Patrick O'Brien holds a 20% strike rate at the track from 279 runs with an A/E of 0.93, while Declan McDonogh has a 13% strike rate at Roscommon from 437 rides with an A/E of 0.94. The trainer-jockey combination shows 169 wins from 1540 rides at 11% with an A/E of 0.73. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to develop favourably given the tentative pace shape.
Green Dreamer KTB Fit 53/100
Green Dreamer is rated 53 on KTB Fit and represents the same powerful Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard. He showed fair promise when winning a maiden over this trip on debut and backed that up with a solid fifth in a stronger race over a mile last time. Dropping back to 7½f looks suitable having already won at the distance, and the good ground brings another positive from his small record of one win and one place from two runs. The yard's 20% strike rate at Roscommon from 279 runs carries an A/E of 0.93, though Dylan Browne McMonagle's record at the track reads 13% from 104 rides with an A/E of 0.67. The trainer-jockey partnership is operating at 19% from 1660 rides with an A/E of 0.90.
Noble Agenda KTB Fit 52/100
Noble Agenda comes in with a KTB Fit of 52 following a winning start over 7f. He now steps up to today's 7½f trip where he already has a 1-from-1 record. With only that one run in the book, the small sample means little else can be read into his form with any confidence, and he remains unproven on good ground. Ciaran Murphy operates at a 6% strike rate from 52 runs at Roscommon with an A/E of 0.9, while Ben Coen has a 15% strike rate at the track from 130 rides with an A/E of 1.06. The trainer-jockey combination shows 7 wins from 79 rides at 9% with an A/E of 1.42. Usually held up and producing his effort late on limited evidence, he fits the profile of many in this field.
Gabby Hayes KTB Fit 48/100
Gabby Hayes is rated 48 on KTB Fit and brings the lowest race experience among the principals, having finished ninth on debut over 7f. The step up to 7½f today asks a fresh question of a horse with only one run in the book, and he remains unproven on good ground. Noel Meade has an 18% strike rate at Roscommon from 560 runs with an A/E of 1, while Chris Hayes has a 9% strike rate from 368 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.78. The trainer-jockey partnership is running at 7% from 261 rides with an A/E of 0.66. Usually held up and producing his effort late on limited evidence, his potential is difficult to gauge at this stage.
The rest of the field
Emotional HedgingKTB Fit 47/100
Emotional Hedging showed promise when second on debut over 6f and now steps up to an untested 7.5f which asks a fresh question. Gavin Cromwell has a 12% strike rate at Roscommon from 189 runs with an A/E of 0.79; he remains unproven on good ground and is usually held up on limited evidence.
Sword Of StateKTB Fit 44/100
Sword Of State is lightly raced with just two runs this year and must be treated with caution given the low data confidence. He showed improvement when winning last time, has already scored over today's trip and the good ground looks ideal; Brendan W Duke has a modest 3% strike rate at Roscommon from 31 runs and this front-runner could set the pace in a tentative shape.
Lars SoldierKTB Fit 44/100
Lars Soldier is a fair 2-year-old with solid placed form at this level and a recent string of consistent efforts from his 415342 figures. He steps up markedly in trip from 5f today which asks a fresh question; Michael Mulvany has a 7% strike rate at Roscommon from 95 runs and this usually held-up performer is competitive on good ground without having won on it.
Grit And GloryKTB Fit 43/100
Grit And Glory has a single run behind him and steps up from 7f to today's 7½f trip having already tried the distance once without success. With low data confidence, a small yard record at Roscommon and a limited going sample, this remains very much an unknown quantity.
Oristown BoyKTB Fit 40/100
Oristown Boy is a fair sort who showed his best when winning a 7f maiden last time and has already won once in two starts at this trip. He steps up in distance again today which looks a fair question given his recent improvement; Joseph Anthony Murray has a 13% strike rate at Roscommon from eight runs and this usually held-up performer is ridden by a 5lb claimer.
KTB verdict
Seven Nation Army is the KTB Selection and sets a clear standard on his recent 7f maiden success combined with prior winning form at this trip. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard's strong record at Roscommon adds to his appeal, though his previous course run was disappointing and the step up in distance will need to suit a horse who has been held up in his races. The main dangers are likely to come from stablemate Green Dreamer, who drops back to a suitable trip with good-ground form, and the progressive Noble Agenda, who brings an unbeaten record but unproven stamina and ground. Gabby Hayes and the remainder of the field add further depth but face stiff tasks on the available evidence.
KTB Selection Seven Nation Army
This is the narrative read of the 6:15 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over today's exact trip?
Seven Nation Army has already scored once over today's trip, as has Green Dreamer, Noble Agenda, Sword Of State and Oristown Boy.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence and only Sword Of State is noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, while most principals are held-up types.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Roscommon in this field?
Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 20% strike rate at Roscommon from 279 runs with an A/E of 0.93.
Which runner is stepping up most markedly in trip?
Lars Soldier steps up markedly in trip from 5f.
Who is the only front-running type in the field?
Sword Of State tends to make the running or race on the pace on limited evidence.
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