5:46 Tramore
This 2m5f180y beginners steeplechase at Tramore on good ground brings together a field of nine where experience over fences is limited and several runners arrive with questions to answer. The KTB Fit ratings highlight Mephisto as the clear top pick on 72, some way ahead of a cluster of mid-50s and lower horses that includes Kasper Hauser, Coded Welder and Frankie's Freebie. Several first-time headgear applications and trip changes add layers of uncertainty, while the race features a notably strong pace setup that could play into the hands of patient hold-up types.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two confirmed front-runners in Kasper Hauser and Frankie's Freebie, while Burru is likely to race prominently. This should ensure an honest gallop that has the potential to collapse in the closing stages, favouring those ridden with patience. The key question is whether the prominent pair can dictate matters or if the race will fall apart late, allowing the hold-up horses such as Mephisto, Coded Welder, Rattledelatch, Juke Hill, Le Kap and Happy Me to close with effect.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mephisto KTB Selection72/100Smart performer who has won over this course and has solid placed form on good ground.
- 2Kasper Hauser56/100Kasper Hauser has shown fair form this year with a win and two placed efforts from his last four starts, though he has been a bit in and out overall.
- 3Coded Welder52/100Coded Welder has shown some ability on good ground with three places from six starts and has also placed once at today's trip in three attempts.
- 4Frankie's Freebie50/100Frankie's Freebie has shown some ability on good ground with two placed efforts from its last three starts and remains lightly raced.
- 5Rattledelatch49/100Rattledelatch has struggled so far with three poor efforts this year after an early pulled-up effort and now steps up markedly in trip.
- 6Juke Hill47/100Juke Hill has shown only modest form in six runs to date and was well held when last seen over 2m3½f.
- 7Le Kap46/100Le Kap has shown fair form on a couple of his starts but has been well held in both runs this year and now drops back from 3m.
- 8Burru41/100Useful performer who showed he retains ability when winning at Downpatrick last time.
- 9Happy Me41/100Happy Me has shown only modest form overall with a recent string of unplaced efforts and just one placing from five runs on good ground.
The contenders
Mephisto KTB Fit 72/100
Mephisto is a smart performer who has won over this course and distance combination and possesses solid placed form on good ground. He is dropping back from three miles to 2m5f today, which poses a fresh question having failed to win in four starts at the shorter trip, while first-time headgear is another unknown at this stage of his career. Gerard Keane has a respectable 10% strike rate at Tramore from a large sample of 100 runs. The combination of Eoghan Finegan's 25% strike rate at the track from only four rides and the trainer-jockey record of 3/21 with a positive A/E of 1.80 adds interest. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Mephisto looks ideally suited to the likely strong pace that could collapse.
Kasper Hauser KTB Fit 56/100
Kasper Hauser has shown fair form this year, registering a win and two placed efforts from his last four starts although his performances have been a little in and out overall. The step up in trip is an unknown and he now runs in first-time headgear, while this is also his first appearance at Tramore. Kevin Thomas Coleman holds a 17% strike rate at the venue from six runs. Calum Hogan is yet to strike at Tramore from six rides. With a tendency to make the running or race on the pace, Kasper Hauser will be right at the front end in a race where the pace is expected to be strong.
Coded Welder KTB Fit 52/100
Coded Welder has shown some ability on good ground, placing three times from six starts, and has also placed once at today's trip in three attempts. His recent form of 00-248 suggests he can be competitive at this level although he still lacks a win and is now tried in first-time headgear. Cian Collins has a modest 4% strike rate at Tramore from 28 runs, but Danny Gilligan boasts a 21% strike rate here from 29 rides and the trainer-jockey combination shows a 17/127 record with an A/E of 1.02. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace that may collapse.
Frankie's Freebie KTB Fit 50/100
Frankie's Freebie has shown some ability on good ground with two placed efforts from his last three starts and remains relatively lightly raced. He has only been competitive once from two runs on this surface and is unproven at the trip. Adrian Sexton's modest 5% strike rate at Tramore from 19 runs adds a note of caution, though Harry Sexton's 6% strike rate at the track from 16 rides is respectable. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will be prominent in a race with a strong pace likely.
The rest of the field
RattledelatchKTB Fit 49/100
Rattledelatch has struggled so far with three poor efforts this year after an early pulled-up effort and now steps up markedly in trip. The move to 2m5f asks a fresh question as his only previous attempt at the distance brought no success and he showed little at Tramore over shorter on his sole visit, though the yard's solid 14% strike rate at the track offers some encouragement while the overall profile remains modest.
Juke HillKTB Fit 47/100
Juke Hill has shown only modest form in six runs to date and was well held when last seen over 2m3½f. He now steps up in trip for the first time which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also applied. Gordon Elliott has a 15% strike rate from 502 runs at Tramore and Sam Ewing a 14% strike rate from 42 rides here.
Le KapKTB Fit 46/100
Le Kap has shown fair form on a couple of his starts but has been well held in both runs this year and now drops back from 3m. The first-time headgear is an unknown and the trip is also untested. Henry de Bromhead has a solid 15% strike rate at Tramore from a big sample while Darragh O'Keeffe is less prolific here.
BurruKTB Fit 41/100
Burru is a useful performer who showed he retains ability when winning at Downpatrick last time. He drops back in trip today having been placed without winning over this distance previously, while he has a solid record on good ground with one win and five places from seven starts. The trainer has yet to strike at Tramore from 12 attempts.
Happy MeKTB Fit 41/100
Happy Me has shown only modest form overall with a recent string of unplaced efforts and just one placing from five runs on good ground. He was well held on his only previous start at Tramore and steps up in trip today for the first time which remains an unknown. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate from 216 runs at the track adds little confidence.
KTB verdict
Mephisto stands out as the KTB Selection. A smart performer with a course win to his name and solid placed form on good ground, his hold-up style is perfectly suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold and potentially collapse late. While the drop back from three miles and first-time headgear introduce unknowns, his overall profile and the positive trainer and jockey course readings make him the one to beat. The main dangers are likely to come from Kasper Hauser and Frankie's Freebie if they can sustain their prominent runs, along with Coded Welder who should also relish the race shape.
KTB Selection Mephisto
This is the narrative read of the 5:46 Tramore. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Tramore racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Mephisto, who is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that run style.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Five: Mephisto, Kasper Hauser, Coded Welder, Juke Hill and Le Kap.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Tramore in this field?
Kevin Thomas Coleman with a 17% strike rate at Tramore from six runs, followed by Gordon Elliott, Henry de Bromhead and Gerard Keane all on 15% or 10%.
Who are the two most likely front-runners?
Kasper Hauser, who tends to make the running or race on the pace, and Frankie's Freebie who shares the same prominent run style.
Which horse has previous winning form at Tramore?
Mephisto, who has won here from three starts.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies