5:58 Kempton (AW)
This Class 6 nursery handicap at Kempton over seven furlongs on standard to slow ground brings together a field of 13 two-year-olds, the majority of whom remain modest and lightly raced. Several runners are dropping in class while stepping up in trip for the first time, adding layers of uncertainty. The KTB Fit ratings point to a tight but low-grade contest overall, with the top two horses separated by only a couple of points and the remainder closely bunched behind them.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, as a front-runner is expected to be pressed by several handy types. Dream On Kent and No More Pino are likely to race prominently while Beach Ahead tends to make the running or race on the pace. Most of the field, including the KTB selection Sakowin, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, so the key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fall apart late for the closers in what looks a fair test.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sakowin KTB Selection56/100Sakowin is a modest maiden who has shown ordinary form in three starts at six furlongs.
- 2Havana Court54/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on his two starts at this trip, finishing third here last time.
- 3Alpaca's Bullet49/100Limited on what he has shown in four runs to date and looks up against it in this company.
- 4Dream On Kent49/100Modest performer who has shown his best form when placed over this trip on his first two starts.
- 5Kochella48/100Kochella has shown modest form in four starts, including a placed effort over 6f here last time.
- 6Chilli46/100Modest performer who has shown only poor form in three runs at sprint trips.
- 7Beach Ahead44/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts, finishing no better than fourth.
- 8Perfect Hope44/100Limited horse who has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing 6th, 9th and 8th.
- 9No More Pino44/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing sixth of nine on debut before two lesser efforts.
- 10Ten Year Stretch43/100Limited performer who has shown very little in four starts to date and looks up against it from a wide draw.
- 11Printing Money42/100Printing Money has shown only limited ability in three starts to date and is up against it from a wide draw.
- 12Aminaty42/100Limited and exposed after three runs at this trip, Aminaty has shown little so far with form figures of 078.
- 13The Kalonji Man35/100Limited performer who has failed to build on a debut fourth and now steps up from 6f to an untested 7f.
The contenders
Sakowin KTB Fit 56/100
Sakowin is a modest maiden who has shown ordinary form in three starts at six furlongs. He steps up to seven furlongs for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while the small sample on this surface leaves his effectiveness on standard to slow going unknown. Trainer Richard Hughes has a 13% strike rate at Kempton from 636 runs and jockey Finley Marsh records an 11% strike rate from 298 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall one which could prove advantageous if the race develops as anticipated. Dropping in class is a positive and he is the KTB selection.
Havana Court KTB Fit 54/100
Havana Court is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his two starts at this trip, finishing third here last time. The yard posts an 11% strike rate at Kempton from a large sample while Fallon is operating at 10% for this track. Still only three runs in total so plenty of unknowns remain. He is usually held up and produces his effort late, fitting the profile of many in this field. Placed once on standard to slow ground and with course form in the book, he arrives with solid recent credentials despite the modest overall level.
Alpaca's Bullet KTB Fit 49/100
Alpaca's Bullet has shown limited form in four runs to date and looks up against it in this company. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Kempton but the jockey is operating at a modest 5% here from a big sample. Trip and ground both remain questions with so little racing behind him. Usually held up, he will be hoping for a strong pace to unfold. With no previous experience of standard to slow going or this course, he carries plenty of risks.
Dream On Kent KTB Fit 49/100
Dream On Kent is a modest performer who has shown his best form when placed over this trip on his first two starts. Dropping back from 7½f should suit and first-time headgear is another positive, though he has weakened in his last two runs. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 9% strike rate here on the all-weather. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he is likely to be prominent in a race where the pace is expected to be genuinely run. Unproven on standard to slow ground, he still holds each-way claims on his earlier efforts.
Kochella KTB Fit 48/100
Kochella has shown modest form in four starts, including a placed effort over 6f here last time. She steps up to 7f for the first time today, which asks a fresh question of her. The yard has only one previous run at the track while the jockey operates at a 9% strike rate from 258 rides here. Usually held up and producing her effort late with medium confidence, she will be looking to come from off the pace. Unproven on standard to slow ground but with placed course form to her name, she is one of the more experienced runners in the field.
The rest of the field
ChilliKTB Fit 46/100
Chilli is a modest performer who has shown only poor form in three runs at sprint trips. Steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is also tried. Trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records at Kempton.
Beach AheadKTB Fit 44/100
Beach Ahead is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts, finishing no better than fourth. Steps up to 7f for the first time today while wearing headgear for the first time, both unknowns. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Kempton from 104 runs adds little confidence from the wide draw.
Perfect HopeKTB Fit 44/100
Perfect Hope is a limited horse who has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing 6th, 9th and 8th. Steps up from 6f to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question. Tom Ward has a 10% strike-rate at the track from 288 runs while Sean Levey is 8% from 1077 rides here.
No More PinoKTB Fit 44/100
No More Pino is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing sixth of nine on debut before two lesser efforts. Trainer is 0-15 at this track while the 5lb claimer has a modest 6% strike-rate from his 17 rides here. Stepping up to 7f for the first time asks a fresh question of a horse with only limited history.
Ten Year StretchKTB Fit 43/100
Ten Year Stretch is a limited performer who has shown very little in four starts to date and looks up against it from a wide draw. The drop back to 7f is a fresh question but brings no obvious boost on what he has produced so far. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track.
Printing MoneyKTB Fit 42/100
Printing Money has shown only limited ability in three starts to date and is up against it from a wide draw. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition but the yard's modest 8% strike rate at Kempton offers little encouragement. Trip looks about right on what he has done so far though the small sample makes that hard to bank on.
AminatyKTB Fit 42/100
Aminaty is limited and exposed after three runs at this trip, having shown little so far with form figures of 078. The first-time headgear is an obvious attempt to spark improvement from a horse who still has something to prove. Trainer Andrew Balding has a 15% strike rate at Kempton from 1801 runs while Daniel Muscutt operates at 12% from 1076 rides here.
The Kalonji ManKTB Fit 35/100
The Kalonji Man is a limited performer who has failed to build on a debut fourth and now steps up from 6f to an untested 7f. First-time headgear is applied in a bid to spark improvement from stall 12. Trainer Richard Hannon has an 11% strike rate at Kempton from 1439 runs while Sean D Bowen has limited data at the track.
KTB verdict
Sakowin is the KTB selection in what looks a modest nursery. He has shown ordinary form in three starts at six furlongs but steps up to this trip for the first time while dropping in class, and the held-up run style should suit if the prominent horses go hard early. His trainer and jockey both have respectable records at the track even if neither is flying. The main dangers are Havana Court, who has shown some ability on his two starts at this trip and has already placed here, and Dream On Kent, who has his best form over the distance, drops back in trip and tries first-time headgear.
KTB Selection Sakowin
This is the narrative read of the 5:58 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are stepping up to 7f for the first time?
Sakowin, Chilli, Beach Ahead, Perfect Hope, No More Pino, The Kalonji Man and Kochella are all stepping up to 7f for the first time.
Who is likely to set the pace?
Beach Ahead tends to make the running or race on the pace, while Dream On Kent and No More Pino are likely to race prominently in a genuinely run race.
Which runners have course form at Kempton?
Havana Court has finished third once here and Kochella has finished third once here; Beach Ahead has finished sixth once here.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Dream On Kent, Chilli, Beach Ahead, Printing Money, Aminaty and The Kalonji Man are all wearing first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Kempton AW?
Alpaca's Bullet's trainer has a 20% strike rate at Kempton from five runs, while Andrew Balding has a 15% strike rate from 1801 runs.
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