7:30 Kempton (AW)
A competitive Class 4 handicap over a mile at Kempton on standard to slow ground forms the first division of this London Mile Series qualifier. The field of ten includes several three-year-olds dropping in class alongside more exposed handicappers, with the KTB Fit ratings separating a tight top five that are all rated in the low-to-mid 60s. Percy's Lad heads the KTB figures on the back of a recent win at this level and holds the strongest course record among the principals.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, the pace shape is strongly positive and the early gallop is expected to be genuine. Victory Ace, Mr Professor and Chapter are all likely to contest the lead or race prominently from their respective draws, which could set the race up for those held up off the pace. The key question is whether the strong pace will cause the leaders to fold late, thereby playing into the hands of the prominent and hold-up types in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Percy's Lad KTB Selection69/100Percy's Lad is a fair 8-year-old who has won once from three starts at Kempton and steps back up to a trip he has handled well with six wins from 18 attempts.
- 2Darn Hot Gallop66/100Fair performer who won over this trip on debut and has been given a chance by the handicapper after some modest efforts at longer distances.
- 3Lake Como65/100Fair performer who has run to a similar level on his last three starts without progressing.
- 4Lucky Camino61/100Fair performer who arrives in solid form having won last time out and shown consistent placed efforts before that.
- 5Mr Professor60/100Mr Professor is a fair sort who won on his only previous visit to this track and has scored once on standard to slow going.
- 6Breakdancer58/100Breakdancer is a fair performer who has won both here at Kempton and on standard to slow ground.
- 7Victory Ace54/100Victory Ace is a fair 3 year old with a solid recent record including two wins in the last three starts.
- 8Chapter48/100Fair performer who has shown useful bits of form this year but was well held on his only previous visit here.
- 9Night Wolf45/100Fair performer who showed some promise on debut before finishing sixth on his most recent start over 1m2f.
- 10Lili Marleen37/100Modest performer who has struggled since her sole win over this trip last year.
The contenders
Percy's Lad KTB Fit 69/100
Percy's Lad is a fair 8-year-old who has won once from three starts at Kempton and steps back up to a trip he has handled well with six wins from 18 attempts. He showed his best recent effort when winning at this level over 7f last month but has been below that form in both starts since. The trainer holds a 16% strike rate here from 131 runs while the jockey has no established record at the track. Prominent in his running style, he usually races handily on or close to the lead. He has been placed once from two starts on standard to slow ground and his recent form figures read 062615.
Darn Hot Gallop KTB Fit 66/100
Darn Hot Gallop is a fair performer who won over this trip on debut and has been given a chance by the handicapper after some modest efforts at longer distances. He drops back to 1m today which looks a sensible move given the earlier success at the distance. Trainer and jockey both operate at a solid 15% strike rate here on the all-weather. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn widest in stall 10. He is unproven on standard to slow ground and his recent form figures read 1-1006.
Lake Como KTB Fit 65/100
Lake Como is a fair performer who has run to a similar level on his last three starts without progressing. He drops back to a trip he has won over and has already placed on this course and on today's ground, though the first-time headgear is an unknown. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Kempton. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 3. His recent form figures read 1-3476 and he is dropping in class.
Lucky Camino KTB Fit 61/100
Lucky Camino is a fair performer who arrives in solid form having won last time out and shown consistent placed efforts before that. He drops back to 1m having scored at the trip earlier in the year though the extra half furlong looked to stretch him last time. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Kempton without setting the place alight. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 8. He is unproven on standard to slow ground and his recent form figures read 2231.
Mr Professor KTB Fit 60/100
Mr Professor is a fair sort who won on his only previous visit to this track and has scored once on standard to slow going. He has four wins from 18 starts at this trip and holds solid course connections. The trainer holds a 15 percent strike rate here from 248 runs while the jockey is operating at 13 percent from 15 rides. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is dropping in class. His recent form figures read /056-6.
The rest of the field
BreakdancerKTB Fit 58/100
Breakdancer is a fair performer who has won both here at Kempton and on standard to slow ground. He has been consistent without winning of late and acts well at this trip. The yard and jockey both have solid records at the track. Usually held up, his recent form figures read 325843.
Victory AceKTB Fit 54/100
Victory Ace is a fair 3 year old with a solid recent record including two wins in the last three starts. He has already won over this trip and proved competitive on standard to slow ground, while his 1 from 2 course record adds further appeal. Trainer John Butler holds a 10 percent strike rate from 821 runs at Kempton and jockey Sean Levey is 8 percent from 1077 rides here. A front-runner, his recent form figures read 126511.
ChapterKTB Fit 48/100
Chapter is a fair performer who has shown useful bits of form this year but was well held on his only previous visit here. He drops back to 1m for the first time in a while having failed to land a blow at that trip twice before, and the first-time headgear is an unknown. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track. A front-runner, his recent form figures read 13-612.
Night WolfKTB Fit 45/100
Night Wolf is a fair performer who showed some promise on debut before finishing sixth on his most recent start over 1m2f. He drops back in trip to 1m today which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also applied. Trainer has a 0% strike rate from seven runs at Kempton. Usually held up, his recent form figures read 53-6.
Lili MarleenKTB Fit 37/100
Lili Marleen is a modest performer who has struggled since her sole win over this trip last year. She was well beaten on her only previous visit to Kempton and remains unproven on standard to slow going. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track. Usually held up, her recent form figures read -0FP90.
KTB verdict
Percy's Lad is the KTB Selection. An 8-year-old with a winning record at Kempton and proven effectiveness at a mile, he showed his best recent effort when landing a similar event over 7f last month and his prominent style should see him ideally placed if the expected strong pace materialises. The selection has the highest KTB Fit rating and the trainer's healthy strike rate at the venue adds further confidence. Main dangers are Darn Hot Gallop, who looks well treated back at his winning distance, and Lake Como, who brings placed course form and the possible benefit of first-time headgear. Lucky Camino and Mr Professor round out the principals and cannot be ruled out on their respective course and trip records.
KTB Selection Percy's Lad
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set a strong pace?
Victory Ace, Mr Professor and Chapter are all front-runners or tend to race on the pace, supporting the assessment of a strong pace likely.
Who is favoured by the strong pace shape?
Hold-up horses are favoured if the strong pace collapses late, with Darn Hot Gallop, Lake Como and Lucky Camino all usually held up.
Which runner has the best recent course record at Kempton?
Percy's Lad has won once from three starts at Kempton.
Which principals are dropping in class?
Darn Hot Gallop, Lake Como and Mr Professor are all dropping in class.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Lake Como, Chapter and Night Wolf are all wearing first-time headgear.
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