6:11 Kilbeggan
The 6:11 at Kilbeggan is the Massey Ferguson Johnston Farm Equipment Longford Handicap Hurdle (Div II), a 2m2f200y contest for 19 runners on good ground. This looks a competitive handicap hurdle where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with High Notions just heading the list on 63, followed closely by Brohatna on 62 and Laligurash on 60. The pace shape is described as tentative with low confidence, suggesting a race that could lack a strong gallop early on.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated as tentative on thin evidence, the race is unlikely to be strongly run in the early stages. Lariat is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race prominently, though that assessment comes with limited evidence and low confidence. Several others including Bowgate Street and Brianna Lily are typically held up and produce their effort late, which could mean the race is decided from off the pace if the leaders are allowed an easy time. The key question is whether the modest pace will play into the hands of prominent racers or allow the closers to come through late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1High Notions KTB Selection63/100High Notions is a useful performer on the balance of ratings and race history.
- 2Brohatna62/100Useful performer who has shown some ability on his last three starts but has failed to land a place.
- 3Laligurash60/100Laligurash is a fair maiden who has shown little in three starts to date, with recent form reading UU-078.
- 4Lariat57/100Lariat is a fair 10-year-old who has shown bits of form here, finishing second on one of two visits to Kilbeggan.
- 5O'Grady Cracker57/100O'Grady Cracker is a useful sort on ratings who has been well below that level in four starts so far.
- 6Tawny Lea57/100Tawny Lea is a fair maiden who has shown very little in two completed starts and was pulled up on her latest outing.
- 7Light Her Up54/100Fair performer who has shown some ability on good ground without winning.
- 8Lakewood Rose53/100Useful performer who has shown steady form this year with a fourth and two thirds from her last three starts.
- 9Bowgate Street52/100Useful performer who has run well at this track on both previous visits, finishing second and third.
- 10Fabhcun50/100Useful performer who has been below form in both starts since returning from a break.
- 11Rizedda48/100Rizedda is a fair performer on the balance of her ratings and race history.
- 12Rare Times46/100Rare Times is a useful type who has shown some ability in three starts but has failed to land a blow at this trip on both attempts.
- 13Western Opera43/100Western Opera is a fair performer on his best days with placed efforts on good ground.
- 14Dearg Mor43/100Fair performer who has shown some consistency of late with two fourths from his last three starts.
- 15Patrick Street40/100Fair performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without threatening to win.
- 16Brianna Lily40/100Fair performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark when eighth of 14 over course and distance on her only previous visit here.
- 17Little Boy Sivola39/100Little Boy Sivola is a fair performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 18Thirsty Work37/100Fair performer who has been well beaten in all seven starts and showed nothing on return last time.
- 19Bangor Lady37/100Bangor Lady is a fair mare who has struggled to make an impact in recent starts, finishing well down the field on her last three outings.
The contenders
High Notions KTB Fit 63/100
High Notions is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He showed some encouragement when third here on his only previous visit to Kilbeggan and the jockey has an 18% strike rate from 11 rides at the track. The trainer is 0-5 at the venue and the horse has yet to place on good ground. Recent form reads P09-37 and he steps out now as a 6-year-old with the KTB Fit Score of 63. The combination of course placings and the jockey's record at Kilbeggan offers encouragement in a race where the pace may not be strong.
Brohatna KTB Fit 62/100
Brohatna is a useful performer who has shown some ability on his last three starts but has failed to land a place. He drops back in trip today having been well held over further last time and tries headgear for the first time. The trainer has a solid 17% strike rate at Kilbeggan from a small sample. Recent form figures are 0/5547 and he carries a KTB Fit Score of 62 as a 6-year-old. With the tentative pace in this race, his ability to show form without placing recently may still leave him competitively weighted if the headgear helps.
Laligurash KTB Fit 60/100
Laligurash is a fair maiden who has shown little in three starts to date, with recent form reading UU-078. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate from 20 runs at Kilbeggan while the claiming jockey is operating at a 19% strike rate from his 16 rides here. Stepping up in trip for the first time poses a fresh question and the lightly-raced profile means the going remains an unknown. As a 4-year-old he is given a KTB Fit Score of 60. The combination of yard and jockey course stats provides some hope despite his modest form so far.
Lariat KTB Fit 57/100
Lariat is a fair 10-year-old who has shown bits of form here, finishing second on one of two visits to Kilbeggan. He steps up in trip today having failed to win in two previous attempts at this distance, and his record on good ground is modest with just one win from 19 starts. First-time headgear is now applied while both trainer and jockey have solid rather than sparkling records at the track. Recent form is 6599-P and he holds a KTB Fit Score of 57. As the only front-runner in the field his run-style could be significant given the tentative pace shape.
O'Grady Cracker KTB Fit 57/100
O'Grady Cracker is a useful sort on ratings who has been well below that level in four starts so far. The first-time headgear is a positive move and the yard has a solid 9% strike rate at Kilbeggan from 86 runs. The jockey also knows the track with a 10% strike rate from 165 rides, though the step up in trip remains an unknown. Recent form reads 9800- and he is another on 57 in the KTB Fit Scores as a 4-year-old. His lightly-raced profile and the application of headgear may yet unlock more.
The rest of the field
Tawny LeaKTB Fit 57/100
Tawny Lea is a fair maiden who has shown very little in two completed starts and was pulled up on her latest outing. She steps up in trip today for a yard that has a solid 12% strike rate at Kilbeggan from 17 runs. The jockey also knows the track well with a 15% strike rate from 46 rides but the overall picture remains modest on what she has shown so far.
Light Her UpKTB Fit 54/100
Light Her Up is a fair performer who has shown some ability on good ground without winning. She drops back in trip today having last run over 2m6f so this distance is an unknown. Trainer has an 11% strike rate from 27 runs at Kilbeggan.
Lakewood RoseKTB Fit 53/100
Lakewood Rose is a useful performer who has shown steady form this year with a fourth and two thirds from her last three starts. She drops back in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance previously while her record on good ground reads just two runs with no win or place. The trainer has only one run at Kilbeggan so far which is too small a sample to judge.
Bowgate StreetKTB Fit 52/100
Bowgate Street is a useful performer who has run well at this track on both previous visits, finishing second and third. Placed twice at today's trip and has a solid record on good ground, though the first-time headgear is an unknown. Trainer's modest strike-rate here is a concern while the jockey has a fair record at Kilbeggan.
FabhcunKTB Fit 50/100
Fabhcun is a useful performer who has been below form in both starts since returning from a break. Dropping back in trip today poses a fresh question while the first-time headgear is another unknown. Trainer has a solid 11% strike-rate at Kilbeggan from a big sample but the jockey is operating at just 4% here from 49 rides.
RizeddaKTB Fit 48/100
Rizedda is a fair performer on the balance of her ratings and race history. She showed little on her recent return over 2m6f and now drops back in trip having failed to trouble the judge in one previous run at this distance. The yard has a solid 18% strike rate at Kilbeggan from a big sample while Darragh O'Keeffe is operating at 11%.
Rare TimesKTB Fit 46/100
Rare Times is a useful type who has shown some ability in three starts but has failed to land a blow at this trip on both attempts. The yard's modest 1% strike-rate at Kilbeggan from 69 runs is a clear negative while the jockey's solid 11% record from 193 rides here offers some compensation. With only three career runs the horse remains lightly raced and not fully exposed.
Western OperaKTB Fit 43/100
Western Opera is a fair performer on his best days with placed efforts on good ground. He drops back in trip today having been well held over further last time and now tries headgear for the first time. The yard has no previous runners at Kilbeggan while the jockey operates at an 8% strike rate here from 39 rides.
Dearg MorKTB Fit 43/100
Dearg Mor is a fair performer who has shown some consistency of late with two fourths from his last three starts. He drops back from 3m today having failed to land a blow at this trip on his only previous attempt, while the first-time headgear is an unknown. Trainer remains without a winner from 53 runs at Kilbeggan.
Patrick StreetKTB Fit 40/100
Patrick Street is a fair performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without threatening to win. He steps up in trip for the first time today having last run over a mile and a half, while this is also his first visit to Kilbeggan. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard's small sample here makes it hard to gauge their local record.
Brianna LilyKTB Fit 40/100
Brianna Lily is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark when eighth of 14 over course and distance on her only previous visit here. She drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at this distance. Trainer remains winless from 23 runs at Kilbeggan while the jockey's modest 8% strike rate at the track is backed by a large sample.
Little Boy SivolaKTB Fit 39/100
Little Boy Sivola is a fair performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has already been tried over this trip without success and drops back from 2m6f, while first-time headgear is now fitted. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate from 401 runs at Kilbeggan and the jockey is 5% from 55 rides here.
Thirsty WorkKTB Fit 37/100
Thirsty Work is a fair performer who has been well beaten in all seven starts and showed nothing on return last time. He drops back in trip with first-time headgear on, though the yard's poor 3% strike rate at Kilbeggan offers little encouragement. Jockey has a modest 5% record here from a big sample.
Bangor LadyKTB Fit 37/100
Bangor Lady is a fair mare who has struggled to make an impact in recent starts, finishing well down the field on her last three outings. She steps up in trip today having shown little at around this distance on her two previous attempts, while the 7 lb claimer has yet to ride a winner from ten rides at Kilbeggan. The trainer holds a modest 8% strike rate here from a large sample.
KTB verdict
High Notions is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer who showed encouragement when third here on his only previous visit to Kilbeggan, and the jockey's 18% strike rate at the track adds further appeal. While the trainer is 0-5 at Kilbeggan and the horse is unplaced on good ground, his overall ratings and course form set a decent standard. The main dangers are likely to come from Brohatna, who has shown ability on his last three starts and now tries headgear, and Lariat, whose front-running style could be favoured by the tentative pace shape. Laligurash and O'Grady Cracker also have claims if they can improve on recent efforts.
KTB Selection High Notions
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| High Notions | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Brohatna | 22/1 | BresBet |
| Laligurash | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Lariat | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| O'Grady Cracker | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Tawny Lea | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Light Her Up | 14/1 | BetTom |
| Lakewood Rose | 17/2 | BresBet |
| Bowgate Street | 6/1 | BresBet |
| Fabhcun | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Rizedda | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Rare Times | 17/2 | BresBet |
| Western Opera | 11/2 | BresBet |
| Dearg Mor | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Patrick Street | 8/1 | BetTom |
| Brianna Lily | 11/1 | BresBet |
| Little Boy Sivola | 14/1 | BetTom |
| Thirsty Work | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Bangor Lady | 25/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 6:11 Kilbeggan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kilbeggan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How does the tentative pace shape affect the principals?
The tentative pace with low confidence suggests the race may not be strongly run, which could favour Lariat as the only front-runner while held-up types such as Bowgate Street and Brianna Lily may need a stronger gallop to be seen to best effect.
Which horse has course form at Kilbeggan among the top principals?
High Notions has one run here, finishing third, while Brohatna has one run here finishing fourth and Lariat has two runs here including a second.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Kilbeggan in this field?
The trainer of Rizedda has an 18% strike rate at Kilbeggan from 370 runs, the trainer of Brohatna has 17% from 6 runs, and the trainer of Light Her Up has 11% from 27 runs.
How many of the 19 runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Brohatna, Lariat, O'Grady Cracker, Bowgate Street, Fabhcun, Western Opera, Dearg Mor, Patrick Street, Little Boy Sivola and Thirsty Work are all wearing first-time headgear.
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time among the lightly-raced principals?
Laligurash is stepping up in trip for the first time as a lightly-raced 4-year-old, while O'Grady Cracker is also stepping up in trip with a lightly-raced profile.
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