6:20 Epsom
A Class 5 handicap over 1m113y at Epsom features a field of nine modest performers, most of whom are stepping up in trip while remaining unproven on the ground. The KTB Fit ratings identify Trio as the top-rated on 64, ahead of Bobacious on 55, with Kitaro Kich and Penfolds Grange tied on 53. Overall the numbers point to a race where consistency, course aptitude and the ability to handle the demands of the track will be at a premium.
How the race shapes up
With several runners unproven over the distance and the pace shape suggesting a predominantly on-pace affair, the race is likely to be contested at a sound gallop from the start. Trio from draw 7 and Bobacious from the outside stall look set to track or press, while Kitaro Kich drawn in stall 1 could take up a prominent position early. The key question is whether any of the principals can quicken off what should be a testing pace or whether the race will fall to a horse that can maintain its effort up the hill.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Trio KTB Selection64/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing no worse than fifth in five of eight starts.
- 2Bobacious55/100Modest performer who has won once from two runs at Epsom.
- 3Kitaro Kich53/100Modest performer who has run twice at Epsom without placing.
- 4Penfolds Grange53/100Modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year with form figures of 42263.
- 5Eutropia49/100Modest performer who has been busy this year and arrives in decent form having won twice and placed three times from her last six starts.
- 6Hurricane Laughter46/100Modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date and was beaten over 11 lengths when fifth on reappearance.
- 7Boston Run43/100Limited performer who has struggled for form in recent starts and now drops back in trip from 1m4f.
- 8Letsbeatsepsis43/100Limited performer who has shown some ability here without winning, finishing second and fifth from two runs at Epsom.
- 9Bennyworth40/100Limited horse who has shown little since an early second at Kempton.
The contenders
Trio KTB Fit 64/100
Trio is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing no worse than fifth in five of eight starts. The Eve Johnson Houghton yard brings a 17% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.13 from 148 runs, while Callum Hutchinson operates at a strong 29% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.94 from 24 rides. He steps up in trip today having been unproven on this ground and with no previous experience at the course. His recent form of 3-3357 underlines a reliable profile at this level, and the combination of yard and jockey stats adds to the appeal. From a middle draw he should be able to secure a workable position in a race where pace is expected to be prominent.
Bobacious KTB Fit 55/100
Bobacious is a modest performer who has won once from two runs at Epsom. He drops back in trip today having last run over a mile and a quarter and remains unproven on this ground. The Mark Hoad stable has a 0% strike rate from five runs here, yet the booking of Mason Paetel is noteworthy given the jockey's 43% strike rate at the track from seven rides with an A/E of 2.23. Recent form reads 76-346, showing he can be competitive when conditions suit. His course record is the strongest among the principals and he is expected to go well from a wide draw if he can overcome the trainer's modest local record.
Kitaro Kich KTB Fit 53/100
Kitaro Kich is a modest performer who has run twice at Epsom without placing. He steps up in trip today having won once from four starts at this distance and now tries headgear for the first time while drawn in stall 1. The George Baker yard posts an 11% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 0.91 from 119 runs, and Neil Callan has a 10% record from 227 rides with an A/E of 0.74. His form of 5216-4 includes a previous success at the trip, and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition for a horse that has been dropped in class. The low draw should allow him to adopt a forward position in what is set to be a strongly-run race.
Penfolds Grange KTB Fit 53/100
Penfolds Grange is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year with form figures of 42263. He steps up in trip today having won once from three starts at this distance though the ground is an unknown. The Mark Pattinson yard is still seeking a first Epsom winner from ten attempts, but Oisin Murphy brings an 18% strike rate at the track from 248 rides with an A/E of 0.9. His recent placed efforts show he remains competitive at this level, and the booking of Murphy is a significant plus. How he handles both the longer trip and the demands of Epsom will be the main factors.
The rest of the field
EutropiaKTB Fit 49/100
Eutropia is a modest performer who has been busy this year and arrives in decent form having won twice and placed three times from her last six starts. She steps up in trip today having been placed once at this distance without winning and is unproven on the ground, making her first appearance at Epsom for a trainer with a 0% strike-rate here from five runs while Tom Marquand has an 8% record from 131 rides at the track.
Hurricane LaughterKTB Fit 46/100
Hurricane Laughter is a modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date and was beaten over 11 lengths when fifth on reappearance. The Ed Walker yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Epsom from 60 runs while Kieran Shoemark is slightly better on 11% from 82 rides. He steps up in trip today for a lightly-raced horse with too few runs to judge the ground.
Boston RunKTB Fit 43/100
Boston Run is a limited performer who has struggled for form in recent starts and now drops back in trip from 1m4f. He has been placed once at this distance without winning but remains unproven on the ground and makes a first appearance at Epsom. The Simon Dow stable holds a 9 percent strike rate here from 529 runs while Paddy Bradley is operating at 5 percent from 75 rides.
LetsbeatsepsisKTB Fit 43/100
Letsbeatsepsis is a limited performer who has shown some ability here without winning, finishing second and fifth from two runs at Epsom. He steps up in trip for the first time today having looked stretched at a mile last time, while the first-time headgear is another unknown on ground he has never tackled. The Gary & Josh Moore yard and Rhys Clutterbuck both hold solid records at the track.
BennyworthKTB Fit 40/100
Bennyworth is a limited horse who has shown little since an early second at Kempton. He steps up in trip for the first time today while making a first appearance at Epsom. The Jim Boyle stable holds an 8% strike rate from 431 runs here and Sean D Bowen is still seeking a first win from 19 rides at the track.
KTB verdict
Trio is the KTB Selection and sets a clear standard on figures and consistency, with the yard and jockey combination at Epsom adding further strength to his claims. His ability to finish in the front half of the field on a regular basis should serve him well in a race where the pace is likely to be honest. Bobacious boasts the best course record among the principals and cannot be dismissed, while Kitaro Kich with first-time headgear and a low draw and Penfolds Grange with the assistance of Oisin Murphy are the most obvious dangers. The remainder of the field look limited or out of form and are hard to fancy on the available evidence.
KTB Selection Trio
This is the narrative read of the 6:20 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record in the race?
Bobacious, who has won once from two runs at Epsom.
Which runner is trying headgear for the first time?
Kitaro Kich and Letsbeatsepsis are both wearing first-time headgear.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at Epsom among the principals?
Callum Hutchinson on Trio, with a 29% strike rate and A/E 1.94 from 24 rides.
Which horses are stepping up in trip?
Trio, Bobacious, Kitaro Kich, Penfolds Grange, Eutropia, Hurricane Laughter, Letsbeatsepsis and Bennyworth are all stepping up in trip.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Epsom in this field?
Eve Johnson Houghton with a 17% strike rate at Epsom from 148 runs.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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