6:55 Epsom
A compact Class 5 handicap over 1m2f17y at Epsom brings together five runners, most of whom are modest performers with questions to answer on the night. The KTB Fit scores highlight Show Biz Kid as the top-rated at 66, ahead of Tiger on 59 and Booziebrunch on 49, with the remaining pair both on 45. Several horses are unproven on the ground while others bring course experience, and the introduction of first-time headgear on two of the principals adds an extra layer of interest in a race where class-dropping and track form could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With a small field the pace shape is expected to be on the steady side, though several runners have shown the ability to race prominently. Show Biz Kid and Booziebrunch are likely to be forward, while Tiger tends to settle in mid-division. The key question is whether the race will develop into a test of speed up the home straight or if the unproven ground will allow those with course placings to capitalise on their familiarity with the track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Show Biz Kid KTB Selection66/100Modest performer who has run well at this track once when finishing third.
- 2Tiger59/100Tiger is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a string of respectable efforts including a recent fourth and sixth.
- 3Booziebrunch49/100Fair performer who has won once over today's trip from just two attempts.
- 4Hello Cotai45/100Modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of five starts at Epsom.
- 5Perfect Scoundrel45/100Modest performer who has shown consistency of late with placed efforts on his last two starts including at this trip.
The contenders
Show Biz Kid KTB Fit 66/100
Show Biz Kid is a modest performer who has run well at this track once when finishing third. He has won twice at today's trip from eleven attempts and now tries first-time headgear after a mixed bag of recent form that reads 7-6415. The five-year-old drops in class from a mark of 66 and is drawn in three. Trainer Julia & Shelley Birkett have a 33% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.83 from a small sample, while jockey Dylan Hogan operates at a solid 17% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.2 from 24 rides. The combination looks well equipped to capitalise on the step back into a weaker race, with the headgear potentially helping him to produce a more consistent effort.
Tiger KTB Fit 59/100
Tiger is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a string of respectable efforts including a recent fourth and sixth, his form figures reading 34-642. The four-year-old drops back in trip from 1m4f to a distance at which he has placed once from two starts though he remains unproven on this ground. Drawn in five, he represents Ian Williams who has an 11% strike rate at Epsom from 122 runs with an A/E of 0.93, while jockey Edward Greatrex is operating at 19% from 37 rides here with an A/E of 1.16. The yard's trainer-jockey combination shows a 13% strike rate overall with an A/E of 1.19 and positive LSP of +£3.03, suggesting Tiger should be thereabouts once more if the ground is suitable.
Booziebrunch KTB Fit 49/100
Booziebrunch is a fair performer who has won once over today's trip from just two attempts. The three-year-old ran well when third here on his only visit to Epsom but the yard's record at the track is poor with a 0% strike rate from eight runs and an A/E of 0. He now sports first-time headgear having posted recent form of -24431. Jockey Tom Marquand has a modest 8% strike rate at Epsom from 131 rides with an A/E of 0.67. While the trainer-jockey partnership shows a 13% strike rate overall with an A/E of 1.02, the combination of a tricky track record for the stable and the need for the headgear to improve him means Booziebrunch will need to find extra to trouble the selection.
The rest of the field
Hello CotaiKTB Fit 45/100
Hello Cotai is a modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of five starts at Epsom. He has won at today's trip though recent form is mixed and the yard's strike rate at the track is below average at 8% with an A/E of 0.77 from 431 runs. Unproven on this ground which adds an unknown.
Perfect ScoundrelKTB Fit 45/100
Perfect Scoundrel is a modest performer who has shown consistency of late with placed efforts on his last two starts including at this trip. First run at Epsom and unproven on the ground add unknowns while the yard and jockey both have modest records here with 10% and 8% strike rates respectively. Overall looks vulnerable to anything better treated.
KTB verdict
Show Biz Kid stands out as the KTB Selection. He has already shown he can act on the track when finishing third here, drops in class, and now gets the help of first-time headgear which could sharpen him up at a trip where he has won twice before. His modest ability is backed by a yard that has performed well at Epsom in a small sample and a jockey with a solid record at the venue. The main dangers are likely to come from Tiger, who brings consistent fair form and a drop back to a suitable distance, and Booziebrunch, who has course placings and a recent win at the trip though the stable's poor record at Epsom is a concern.
KTB Selection Show Biz Kid
This is the narrative read of the 6:55 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class for this race?
Show Biz Kid
How many horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Two: Show Biz Kid and Booziebrunch
Which runner has the best trainer strike rate at Epsom?
Show Biz Kid's trainer has a 33% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.83 from three runs
Which horse has won twice at Epsom?
Hello Cotai
Who has the strongest jockey record at Epsom among the principals?
Edward Greatrex on Tiger with a 19% strike rate from 37 rides and an A/E of 1.16
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