6:27 Ballinrobe
The 6:27 at Ballinrobe is a 14-runner Cummins Homevalue Hardware Handicap Hurdle over 2m0f109y on good ground. A competitive field mixes useful and fair performers, with several dropping back in trip and a number of first-time headgear applications adding layers of interest. The KTB Fit Scores highlight Long Gone as the clear top pick on 73, with Secret Rock and Ripsnorter next on 63, while the remainder cluster between 55 and 36.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a natural leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay dividends. With the majority of the field, including all five principals, tending to be held up and produce their efforts late, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing and positioning off what could be a modest gallop. The key question will be whether those racing prominently can steal an advantage or if the closers will be able to weave their way through in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Long Gone KTB Selection73/100Smart performer who arrives in decent form having won at this trip in the past and shown placed efforts on good ground.
- 2Secret Rock63/100Smart performer who has been below par on his last two starts.
- 3Ripsnorter63/100Useful performer who has shown enough to be competitive at this level.
- 4Go To Town55/100Useful performer who has run creditably in two of his last three starts yet remains winless after ten runs.
- 5Figero54/100Figero is a useful performer who showed improvement when winning last time and has solid course connections here.
- 6Final Decision53/100Useful performer who has shown enough in stronger company to remain competitive here.
- 7Le Diablo53/100Useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track without winning.
- 8Koeur A Prendre52/100Useful performer who has shown steady improvement since returning from a break, finishing second on both starts this year.
- 9Fremantle Doctor48/100Useful performer who has been out of form for some time and finished well beaten on his last two starts.
- 10Houndsworth45/100Useful performer who has already shown he can win at this trip.
- 11Atlantic Gamble44/100Useful performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year and showed only modest form when seventh on his sole visit to this track.
- 12Theanniversary Man41/100Theanniversary Man is a fair performer who has won twice this year before pulling up on his most recent start.
- 13Brave Crogha37/100Fair performer who has shown little spark in five runs this year and was pulled up on his latest start.
- 14Chemdawg36/100Chemdawg is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a second at Down Royal last time and has placed three times from nine starts at today's trip.
The contenders
Long Gone KTB Fit 73/100
Long Gone is a smart performer who arrives in decent form having won at this trip in the past and shown placed efforts on good ground. He drops back in distance today after a couple of poor efforts over further and tries headgear for the first time. The Noel C Kelly yard boasts a 19% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 2.44 from 27 runs, though the trainer-jockey combination stands at 0/13 with an A/E of 0.00. Darragh O'Keeffe has an 11% strike rate at the track from 175 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the 8-year-old has 1 win from 7 starts on good going and no previous course form on record.
Secret Rock KTB Fit 63/100
Secret Rock is a smart performer who has been below par on his last two starts. He drops back to a trip he has won at before and has shown he can be competitive on good ground, with a placed effort from five runs in that sphere. The Cian Collins stable holds a 10% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 1.09 from 30 runs, while Eoin Walsh has no record at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the 7-year-old has no course form on record.
Ripsnorter KTB Fit 63/100
Ripsnorter is a useful performer who has shown enough to be competitive at this level. He ran respectably over slightly further here last time and has placed twice at today's trip, though still without a win. The W J Lanigan yard posts a 25% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 3.57 from 12 runs, and the trainer-jockey partnership reads 14/123 with an A/E of 1.35. Danny Mullins has a 14% strike rate at the venue from 238 rides. Usually held up with medium confidence, the 5-year-old is 0-2 on good ground and has a sixth to his name from one previous run at the course.
Go To Town KTB Fit 55/100
Go To Town is a useful performer who has run creditably in two of his last three starts yet remains winless after ten runs. He showed fair form when fourth over this course and trip on his only visit to Ballinrobe but has never placed on good ground in six attempts. First-time headgear is now fitted as he drops back in trip. The Ross O'Sullivan yard has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.65 from 61 runs, while claiming jockey Eoin Staples is 20% from five rides here with an A/E of 1.57. Usually held up with high confidence, the 6-year-old has no win or place from six runs on good.
Figero KTB Fit 54/100
Figero is a useful performer who showed improvement when winning last time and has solid course connections here. He ran respectably when fifth on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe but now steps up in trip having failed to place in four previous attempts at this distance. Thomas Mullins holds a 13% strike rate at the track from 80 runs, though claiming jockey Michael Kenneally is still seeking a first Ballinrobe success from seven rides. Usually held up with high confidence, the 5-year-old is 0-1 on good ground.
The rest of the field
Final DecisionKTB Fit 53/100
Final Decision is a useful performer who has shown enough in stronger company to remain competitive here. He has placed twice at today's trip without winning and has handled good ground in the past, though the recent form figures are modest. The P J Rothwell yard has a 9% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.94 from 316 runs, while jockey Tiernan Power Roche is 12% from 25 rides here.
Le DiabloKTB Fit 53/100
Le Diablo is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track without winning. He drops back in trip today having already scored at this distance and has placed twice from six runs on good ground. First-time headgear is now tried. The John Patrick Ryan yard is 11% at Ballinrobe, while J J Slevin is 7% from 135 rides at the venue; the horse has been placed from three previous runs here.
Koeur A PrendreKTB Fit 52/100
Koeur A Prendre is a useful performer who has shown steady improvement since returning from a break, finishing second on both starts this year. He drops back in trip having failed to land a blow over longer last time, though he has already tried this distance twice without success. Both trainer M A Molloy and jockey Daniel King have solid records at Ballinrobe, with respective strike rates of 13% and 14%.
Fremantle DoctorKTB Fit 48/100
Fremantle Doctor is a useful performer who has been out of form for some time and finished well beaten on his last two starts. He drops back in trip today having been placed over this distance without winning and tries headgear for the first time. The John C McConnell yard has an 8% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 134 runs.
HoundsworthKTB Fit 45/100
Houndsworth is a useful performer who has already shown he can win at this trip. He has been below form on his last two starts and his record around here reads 5th and 8th from two runs. First-time headgear is now fitted while both trainer and jockey have modest records at Ballinrobe.
Atlantic GambleKTB Fit 44/100
Atlantic Gamble is a useful performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year and showed only modest form when seventh on his sole visit to this track. The step up in trip poses a fresh question while his record on good ground is respectable without being strong. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate here is offset by the jockey's solid 19% record at Ballinrobe.
Theanniversary ManKTB Fit 41/100
Theanniversary Man is a fair performer who has won twice this year before pulling up on his most recent start. He drops back to a trip he has won over from eight attempts and has shown he can be competitive on good ground. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Ballinrobe.
Brave CroghaKTB Fit 37/100
Brave Crogha is a fair performer who has shown little spark in five runs this year and was pulled up on his latest start. He has tried this trip nine times without success and his four runs at Ballinrobe have produced no win or place. First-time headgear is now applied but the trainer's modest record here offers little encouragement.
ChemdawgKTB Fit 36/100
Chemdawg is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a second at Down Royal last time and has placed three times from nine starts at today's trip. He has shown some ability on good ground but remains winless in that sphere from seven runs. The trainer and jockey both hold modest 4% strike rates at Ballinrobe while this is the horse's first visit and he tries first-time headgear.
KTB verdict
Long Gone stands out as the KTB Selection. A smart performer with previous success at this trip and placed form on good ground, he drops back in distance at a track where his trainer has a notably strong record. The application of first-time headgear may help him produce his effort at the right moment in a steadily-run race. His main dangers are Secret Rock, who returns to a winning trip, and Ripsnorter, who has shown enough at the track and trip to be taken seriously.
KTB Selection Long Gone
This is the narrative read of the 6:27 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is trying headgear for the first time among the leading contenders?
Long Gone, Go To Town and Figero are not; first-time headgear is carried by Go To Town among the principals, while Le Diablo, Fremantle Doctor, Houndsworth, Brave Crogha and Chemdawg also wear it.
How many previous visits to Ballinrobe has Ripsnorter made?
Ripsnorter has run here once, finishing sixth.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Ballinrobe among those represented?
W J Lanigan has a 25% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 3.57 from 12 runs.
What is the course record of the selection Long Gone?
Long Gone has no course form on record.
How many of the field are held up in running style?
All 14 runners are described as held up, with varying degrees of confidence.
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