6:57 Ballinrobe
A competitive 19-runner Broderick's Electric Handicap Hurdle over 2m0f109y at Ballinrobe on good ground promises to be a steadily-run, tactical affair. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Max Meridius heading the numbers on 60, closely followed by Grey Gardens on 59 and a pair on 56. With no obvious leader in a field where the majority settle held up or in mid-division, the ability to produce a late effort from a handy position looks set to be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy should pay. Most principals and field runners are held up types who produce their efforts late, with only a few settling in mid-division. This setup asks the key question of which horse can best negotiate the steady tempo and deliver its challenge at the right moment without getting too far back in a big field.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Max Meridius KTB Selection60/100Useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe.
- 2Grey Gardens59/100Useful performer who has shown some ability in recent runs but finished a well-beaten 10th on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe.
- 3The Vegas Raider56/100The Vegas Raider is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 4Home By The Sea56/100Useful performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year after a long break.
- 5Ikalimix53/100Useful performer who has shown ability on his better days yet has been largely out of form in recent starts and failed to complete last time.
- 6Moulane West50/100Moulane West is a fair 10-year-old who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
- 7Let Him B50/100Useful performer who has been out of form on his last two starts.
- 8Sidiriya49/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form of late, finishing third in two of his last three starts.
- 9Lunar Landscape49/100Lunar Landscape is a fair performer who has placed here once and shown some competitiveness on good ground.
- 10Calm Flight Ahead49/100Calm Flight Ahead is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but has been well beaten on all five starts to date and was pulled up last…
- 11Sayitfirst48/100Sayitfirst is a fair handicapper who has been placed six times on good ground and won once over today's trip.
- 12Cool Summer47/100Fair performer who has shown some recent encouragement with placed efforts on his last two starts.
- 13Bangor Lady47/100Modest performer who has shown little in eight starts and was pulled up on her only previous visit to Ballinrobe.
- 14The Toothpicker46/100The Toothpicker is a fair sort who has been out of form for some time and finished well held on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe.
- 15All In Peder42/100All In Peder is a fair performer on his best days but has been out of form for some time and finished well beaten on his only previous run here.
- 16Victoria Kesia42/100Victoria Kesia is a fair mare who has been largely out of form this year and finished no better than eighth on her only previous visit to Ballinrobe.
- 17Euro Maker41/100Fair performer who has shown some ability on his day, including a placed effort at today's trip.
- 18Spread The Faith37/100Fair performer who showed a bit more spark when fourth on return at Punchestown last month after three poor efforts.
- 19Western Doyen35/100Western Doyen is a 13-year-old modest performer who has been competitive on good ground without winning.
The contenders
Max Meridius KTB Fit 60/100
Max Meridius is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe. He has been in and out of form lately, winning a handicap at Killarney in May before running no sort of race last time. The five-year-old drops back in trip today having failed to land a blow in eight previous attempts at this distance. Thomas Mullins has a 13% strike rate at the track from 80 runs while Danny Mullins operates at 14% from 238 rides. He usually races held up and produces his effort late, and he holds a 1-4 record on good ground.
Grey Gardens KTB Fit 59/100
Grey Gardens is a useful performer who has shown some ability in recent runs but finished a well-beaten 10th on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe. The five-year-old drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in four runs at this distance. Paul Nolan's modest 8% strike rate at the track from 120 runs is offset by Eoin Staples' strong 20% record from a small sample of five rides. He typically settles in midfield, and he has been placed once from three starts on good ground without winning.
The Vegas Raider KTB Fit 56/100
The Vegas Raider is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and drops back in trip today having last run over further. The eight-year-old is now fitted with first-time headgear. K A Heffernan has a modest 4% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 25 runs while Shane Fitzgerald is 8% from 63 rides. He usually races held up and produces his effort late, and he has been placed three times from nine starts on good ground.
Home By The Sea KTB Fit 56/100
Home By The Sea is a useful performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year after a long break. The six-year-old steps up in trip having failed to land a blow in five previous attempts at this distance. P A Fahy has a solid 11% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 201 runs while J J Slevin is 7% from 135 rides. He usually races held up and produces his effort late, and he is 0-2 on good ground with no placed efforts.
Ikalimix KTB Fit 53/100
Ikalimix is a useful performer who has shown ability on his better days yet has been largely out of form in recent starts and failed to complete last time. The eight-year-old drops back in trip today having failed to land a blow in four previous tries at this distance. He is now fitted with first-time headgear. Eugene M O'Sullivan has a modest 5% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 62 runs. He typically settles in midfield though evidence is limited.
The rest of the field
Moulane WestKTB Fit 50/100
Moulane West is a fair 10-year-old who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has fallen in two previous runs at this track and is now tried in first-time headgear while dropping back in trip to a distance at which he has won once from 26 starts. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate from 93 runs here.
Let Him BKTB Fit 50/100
Let Him B is a useful performer who has been out of form on his last two starts. He drops back in trip today having failed to win in ten runs at this distance and his record on good ground is modest from just two attempts. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate at Ballinrobe is offset by the jockey's stronger 16% record at the track.
SidiriyaKTB Fit 49/100
Sidiriya is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form of late, finishing third in two of his last three starts. He has placed twice from three runs on good ground and twice from 11 starts at this trip, though he is yet to win at either. Trainer holds a 9% strike rate here from 316 runs while the jockey is 12% from 25 rides.
Lunar LandscapeKTB Fit 49/100
Lunar Landscape is a fair performer who has placed here once and shown some competitiveness on good ground. He drops back in trip today having failed to win in five runs at this distance and his recent form is modest. The trainer has a poor record at Ballinrobe while the jockey has a solid strike rate here.
Calm Flight AheadKTB Fit 49/100
Calm Flight Ahead is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but has been well beaten on all five starts to date and was pulled up last time. He drops back in trip having failed to make the frame in three previous runs at this distance while the first-time headgear is another unknown. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate from 316 runs at Ballinrobe.
SayitfirstKTB Fit 48/100
Sayitfirst is a fair handicapper who has been placed six times on good ground and won once over today's trip. He has run three times at Ballinrobe without placing and drops back in distance today after his latest effort. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 15 runs here while the jockey operates at a solid 19% strike rate from 59 rides at the track.
Cool SummerKTB Fit 47/100
Cool Summer is a fair performer who has shown some recent encouragement with placed efforts on his last two starts. He steps up in trip today having already been placed without winning at this distance, while first-time headgear is now fitted. Trainer has a solid 17% strike rate here from a small sample but the jockey's modest 6% record from many rides tempers expectations.
Bangor LadyKTB Fit 47/100
Bangor Lady is a modest performer who has shown little in eight starts and was pulled up on her only previous visit to Ballinrobe. She drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in three runs at this distance, and she is 0-5 on good ground. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate here from a big sample and the jockey is operating above expectations at the track.
The ToothpickerKTB Fit 46/100
The Toothpicker is a fair sort who has been out of form for some time and finished well held on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe. He drops back in trip today having been placed at this distance in the past though his two runs on good ground produced no win or place. First-time headgear is now tried while the trainer's modest 6% strike rate at the track offers little encouragement.
All In PederKTB Fit 42/100
All In Peder is a fair performer on his best days but has been out of form for some time and finished well beaten on his only previous run here. He steps up in trip today having won over this distance before though that was some time ago. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard has had too few runners at the track to judge.
Victoria KesiaKTB Fit 42/100
Victoria Kesia is a fair mare who has been largely out of form this year and finished no better than eighth on her only previous visit to Ballinrobe. She has shown some competitiveness on good ground but remains winless at this trip in five attempts. The trainer's poor 1% strike-rate here from 140 runs adds to the negatives.
Euro MakerKTB Fit 41/100
Euro Maker is a fair performer who has shown some ability on his day, including a placed effort at today's trip. He was well held on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe and recent form has been patchy at best. The yard's modest record here adds little encouragement.
Spread The FaithKTB Fit 37/100
Spread The Faith is a fair performer who showed a bit more spark when fourth on return at Punchestown last month after three poor efforts. He drops back in trip today having failed to make the frame in three previous tries at this distance and has looked limited on good ground in three runs. Trainer and jockey both have modest 4% strike rates at Ballinrobe.
Western DoyenKTB Fit 35/100
Western Doyen is a 13-year-old modest performer who has been competitive on good ground without winning. He has shown some ability at this trip in the past though his latest run came over further and he was pulled up. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Ballinrobe and the horse himself could only manage sixth on his sole visit here.
KTB verdict
Max Meridius stands out as the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe and showed good form when landing a handicap at Killarney in May, with the drop back in trip likely to suit after he failed to land a blow over this distance on previous attempts. His course record and the trainer-jockey combination at a venue where both have respectable records add to his appeal in a race where being handy from a held-up position should count. The main dangers are Grey Gardens, who has shown some ability in recent runs and benefits from a jockey in strong form at the track, and The Vegas Raider, who has won over the trip and course and now tries first-time headgear after his last run over further.
KTB Selection Max Meridius
This is the narrative read of the 6:57 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the pace shape favour horses that can be handy?
The race lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, with most runners held up and producing efforts late.
Which horse has won both at this course and over today's distance?
The Vegas Raider has won over this trip and at this track.
How many principals are making their first attempt at first-time headgear?
Three of the top five principals are fitted with first-time headgear: The Vegas Raider, Ikalimix and, among the wider field, several others including Moulane West, Calm Flight Ahead, Cool Summer, The Toothpicker, All In Peder and Spread The Faith.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Ballinrobe among those represented in the top five?
P A Fahy has an 11% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 201 runs, the strongest among trainers of the top five.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at the track from the principals?
Eoin Staples has a 20% strike rate at Ballinrobe from five rides.
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