6:30 Redcar
This Class 5 handicap division at Redcar over 1m2f1y on good ground features a field of nine modest performers where the KTB Fit scores range from 63 down to 39. The numbers point to a competitive but unspectacular affair in which consistency and course knowledge are likely to matter. Always Blue heads the KTB Fit rankings on 63 and is the selection, while the remainder of the field sits between 57 and 39.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy is likely to pay. Most of the field are held-up types who produce their efforts late, though Adiada is the one runner who usually races prominently. The key question is whether the race will develop enough pace for the closers or whether those who can secure a forward position will hold the advantage in a tactical affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Always Blue KTB Selection63/100Modest performer who has shown consistent form in four starts, finishing no worse than third on his last two outings.
- 2Yafaarr57/100Modest performer who has won once from four runs at this track and holds a solid course record overall.
- 3Chesneys Charm53/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts this year.
- 4Cosmos Raj49/100Cosmos Raj is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time, with recent form reading 576644.
- 5Ceinture d'Orion49/100Modest performer who has shown consistent form this year, finishing in the first four on four of five starts including a placed effort at this trip.
- 6Adiada48/100Modest performer who showed fair form when runner-up on handicap debut last season before a below-par return at Newcastle on reappearance.
- 7Boubyan45/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, finishing in the first four on four of his last six starts.
- 8Whiskey Pete44/100Limited performer who has been out of the frame in both runs here and looks up against it again from stall 7.
- 9Sweet Kiss39/100Limited performer who has shown bits and pieces without winning for some time, most recently finishing sixth of nine at Beverley.
The contenders
Always Blue KTB Fit 63/100
Always Blue is a modest performer who has shown consistent form in four starts, finishing no worse than third on his last two outings. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning over this distance on his sole attempt. The Harriet Bethell yard boasts a 36% strike rate at Redcar from 11 runs with an A/E of 2.69, though the jockey Sean D Bowen operates at a modest 8% strike rate from 13 rides here. Always Blue has been placed once from two starts on good ground and remains competitive at this level. His held-up run style means he will be produced late, which could be well suited to a steadily-run race. The trainer and jockey combination has a 6/18 record with an A/E of 2.28 and positive LSP of +£12.75.
Yafaarr KTB Fit 57/100
Yafaarr is a modest performer who has won once from four runs at this track and holds a solid course record overall. His recent form of 601324 shows some competitiveness but also inconsistency at this level, while the trip remains a question after one unsuccessful attempt. The Sam England yard has a 15% strike rate at Redcar from 27 runs with an A/E of 1.61, though the 5lb claimer Cian Horgan is operating at a 7% strike rate from 14 rides here. Yafaarr has recorded one win and two places from six starts on good ground. He has won here previously and his held-up style with high confidence should see him delivered late in what is expected to be a tactical affair. The trainer and jockey partnership shows 0/6 on the card.
Chesneys Charm KTB Fit 53/100
Chesneys Charm is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts this year. He has run twice here without placing and steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact over this distance on his previous three attempts. Both trainer Ivan Furtado and jockey Jason Hart have solid records at the track, with the yard on 10% from 93 runs and the rider on 14% from 508 rides. Chesneys Charm holds one win and two places from five starts on good ground. His held-up run style is taken with high confidence and he will be towards the rear before delivering his effort. The yard and jockey combination has a 40/353 record with an A/E of 0.84.
Cosmos Raj KTB Fit 49/100
Cosmos Raj is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time, with recent form reading 576644. He steps up in trip today having been placed three times over this distance in the past, though whether the extra furlong will suit remains to be seen. The David O'Meara yard has a 15% strike rate at Redcar from 761 runs with an A/E of 1.02, while Billy Garritty is on 10% from 80 rides here. Cosmos Raj has one win and three places from eight starts on good ground and has shown fair course form with two placed efforts from two runs. His held-up style is taken with high confidence and he should be produced late. The trainer and jockey partnership shows 0/13 on the card.
The rest of the field
Ceinture d'OrionKTB Fit 49/100
Ceinture d'Orion is a modest performer who has shown consistent form this year, finishing in the first four on four of five starts including a placed effort at this trip. The David O'Meara yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Redcar from 761 runs while jockey David Nolan operates at 10% here from 404 rides. He is stepping up in class and going suitability remains unknown with only one run on good ground.
AdiadaKTB Fit 48/100
Adiada is a modest performer who showed fair form when runner-up on handicap debut last season before a below-par return at Newcastle on reappearance. She steps up in trip today having looked stretched at a mile last time, which asks a fresh question of her stamina. The Michael Dods yard has a 9% strike rate at Redcar from 1000 runs and the 5lb claimer Rhys Elliott is operating above his strike rate here. Adiada is unproven on good ground and has no course form.
BoubyanKTB Fit 45/100
Boubyan is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, finishing in the first four on four of his last six starts. He steps up in class and in trip today having already won over this distance once, though his record on good ground shows only a single placing from five runs. The Michael Appleby yard and Lewis Edmunds both have modest records at Redcar.
Whiskey PeteKTB Fit 44/100
Whiskey Pete is a limited performer who has been out of the frame in both runs here and looks up against it again from stall 7. He has placed on good ground and at this trip without winning, but his recent form is modest and the overall record suggests he struggles to get competitive at this level. The Nigel Tinkler yard holds a modest record at Redcar while the claiming jockey Alex Jary has done better.
Sweet KissKTB Fit 39/100
Sweet Kiss is a limited performer who has shown bits and pieces without winning for some time, most recently finishing sixth of nine at Beverley. She has won on good ground and at this trip but her overall record suggests she finds it hard to get her head in front. First-time headgear is now applied while both the Tim Easterby yard and jockey Jake Dickson have modest records at Redcar.
KTB verdict
Always Blue is the KTB Selection. He arrives in consistent form, has shown he can handle the trip, and benefits from a yard that is flying at Redcar with a 36% strike rate and strong A/E. His held-up style should be well suited to what looks like a steadily-run affair where being produced late can pay. The main dangers are Yafaarr, who has a good course record, and Chesneys Charm, who drops in class with solid track figures for trainer and jockey, while Cosmos Raj brings consistency and placed form over the distance.
KTB Selection Always Blue
This is the narrative read of the 6:30 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Redcar?
Always Blue's trainer Harriet Bethell has a 36% strike rate at Redcar from 11 runs with an A/E of 2.69.
How many of the field have previous course wins at Redcar?
Only Yafaarr has a course win, with one victory from four runs at the track.
Which runners are stepping up or dropping in class?
Chesneys Charm, Boubyan, Whiskey Pete and Sweet Kiss are all stepping up in class, while Ceinture d'Orion is also stepping up in class. Chesneys Charm is the only one dropping in class.
Who is the only prominent runner in a field of mostly held-up types?
Adiada is the only prominent runner, usually racing handily, while the other eight are all held up.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Sweet Kiss is fitted with first-time headgear.
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