7:00 Redcar
This Class 5 handicap division at Redcar over 5f 217y on good ground features an 11-runner field where the KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but modest bunch overall. Sugar Baby heads the KTB Fit rankings on 62 and is the selection, while the next four principals sit between 53 and 56. The race is notable for the lack of early pace pressure, with the pace shape indicating a lone leader likely to enjoy an uncontested advantage.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse is expected to stride clear on the front end with little to challenge it in the early stages. Most of the principals, including Sugar Baby, Raatea, Mr Cool and Hover On The Wind, are held-up types who will be produced late, while Ingleby Archie is the one who tends to make the running. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will prove hard for the closers to peg back over this trip on good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sugar Baby KTB Selection62/100Sugar Baby is a modest performer with a solid record at this track, having won two of six starts here.
- 2Raatea56/100Raatea is a fair 9-year-old who has been placed on good ground three times from 12 starts and has won four times over today's trip.
- 3Mr Cool54/100Modest performer who has been consistent this year with three wins from his last ten starts and a solid recent sequence of 352313.
- 4Hover On The Wind53/100Modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last six starts.
- 5The Caltonian53/100Modest performer who has been out of the frame in all six starts this year.
- 6Missmimi49/100Missmimi is a modest performer who has won once from five runs at Redcar and holds a solid record on good ground with two wins and three places from seven start…
- 7Liverpool Star48/100Modest performer with a patchy record and just one win from 15 starts.
- 8Ingleby Archie47/100Modest performer who has run well here in the past, winning once from three starts at Redcar.
- 9Spirit Of Applause43/100Modest performer who has been placed on three of his four runs at Redcar without winning.
- 10Taygar43/100Modest performer who has been consistent this year without winning, placing in four of his last six starts.
- 11Showtime Mahomes39/100Modest performer with a solid recent record at this trip, including three wins from 36 starts, though he has been out of form on his last two starts.
The contenders
Sugar Baby KTB Fit 62/100
Sugar Baby is a modest performer with a solid record at this track, having won two of six starts here. He has also won three times at today's trip and handles good ground, though his recent form has been patchy. Both trainer and jockey have a 10% strike-rate at Redcar from decent-sized samples. Dropping in class from a draw of one, the 8-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late. The Peter Niven yard's 10% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.25 from 80 runs and Billy Garritty's matching 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.97 from 80 rides are both respectable. With two wins from 13 on good ground and a course record that includes a win, Sugar Baby is taken to capitalise on the drop in class.
Raatea KTB Fit 56/100
Raatea is a fair 9-year-old who has been placed on good ground three times from 12 starts and has won four times over today's trip. He arrives in ordinary form after a string of modest efforts and makes his first visit to Redcar. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate here from 309 runs while the 5lb claimer has a 10% record from 40 rides. Dropping in class from draw four, the gelding is usually held up and produces its effort late. Recent form of 0-2350 is uninspiring, yet the placed efforts on good ground keep him in the picture as a fair sort at this level. The Julie Camacho and Tom Kiely-Marshall combination will hope the drop in class brings about improvement on his Redcar debut.
Mr Cool KTB Fit 54/100
Mr Cool is a modest performer who has been consistent this year with three wins from his last ten starts and a solid recent sequence of 352313. He has won on good ground and at today's trip though he is 0-11 on this surface at this distance. First run at Redcar for the Charlie Johnston yard who operate at a 14% strike rate here while Connor Beasley is on board at a 9% strike rate. Stepping up in class from draw 11, the 4-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late. The trainer-jockey combination shows 22 wins from 134 rides with an A/E of 1.04, and the yard's 14% strike rate at Redcar from 73 runs offers some encouragement. His consistency makes him a player if he handles the step back up in class.
Hover On The Wind KTB Fit 53/100
Hover On The Wind is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last six starts. He has won twice over today's trip but steps back up in distance having raced at the minimum trip on his most recent outing. Three wins from ten runs on good ground is a plus yet he was well held on his only previous visit to Redcar. Dropping in class from draw seven, the 6-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late. The Paul Midgley yard has a 7% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.79 from 494 runs, while David Nolan's 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.9 from 404 rides is respectable. Recent form of 451177 highlights his ability to win at this trip on good ground.
The Caltonian KTB Fit 53/100
The Caltonian is a modest performer who has been out of the frame in all six starts this year. He has won at today's trip but his record on good ground is only modest with two placed efforts from seven runs. The trainer's poor record at Redcar is a concern though the jockey has a solid strike rate here. Dropping in class from draw six, the 7-year-old typically settles in midfield. Linda Perratt's 3% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.3 from 152 runs is a negative, yet Alex Jary's 14% strike rate with an A/E of 1.84 from 74 rides is a positive. Recent form of 005054 suggests he needs to find more to figure prominently.
The rest of the field
MissmimiKTB Fit 49/100
Missmimi is a modest performer who has won once from five runs at Redcar and holds a solid record on good ground with two wins and three places from seven starts. She steps up in trip today having last run over 5f yet owns three wins from 17 starts at this distance which offers some encouragement. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate here is offset by the jockey's stronger 18% record from 33 rides at the track.
Liverpool StarKTB Fit 48/100
Liverpool Star is a modest performer with a patchy record and just one win from 15 starts. Has won on good ground and at today's trip but his recent form has been ordinary and the yard's record here is poor. Jockey has a solid strike-rate at the track from a small sample.
Ingleby ArchieKTB Fit 47/100
Ingleby Archie is a modest performer who has run well here in the past, winning once from three starts at Redcar. Recent form of 432135 shows consistency without much spark, and he is now 0-18 at this trip despite two wins at the distance overall. Trainer's poor 3% strike rate at the track is a negative while the jockey has managed only a 6% record from 211 rides here.
Spirit Of ApplauseKTB Fit 43/100
Spirit Of Applause is a modest performer who has been placed on three of his four runs at Redcar without winning. He has shown bits of form this year but his last two efforts were poor and he is now stepping back up in trip having won twice at this distance in the past. Trainer and jockey both have below-average records at the track.
TaygarKTB Fit 43/100
Taygar is a modest performer who has been consistent this year without winning, placing in four of his last six starts. He has won here and at today's trip, though his record on good ground is ordinary with just one success from 17 attempts. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at Redcar.
Showtime MahomesKTB Fit 39/100
Showtime Mahomes is a modest performer with a solid recent record at this trip, including three wins from 36 starts, though he has been out of form on his last two starts. Only one visit to Redcar produced a respectable fourth, while the yard's 9% strike rate from 125 runs here is modest and the jockey's 13% from 47 rides is respectable but unspectacular. One win from 14 on good ground shows he handles the surface but is hardly a standout on it.
KTB verdict
Sugar Baby is the KTB selection and looks to hold the strongest claims on his solid course record and the drop in class. The 8-year-old's two wins from six starts at Redcar, combined with three victories at today's trip and the ability to handle good ground, make him well suited to this assignment despite patchy recent form. The main dangers are likely to come from Raatea, who drops in class and has a good strike rate at the trip, and the consistent Mr Cool, who brings a solid sequence into the race. Hover On The Wind and The Caltonian cannot be entirely dismissed either given their recent efforts and the drop in class, but the selection is taken to come out on top in a race where the uncontested lead may prove decisive.
KTB Selection Sugar Baby
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the only one likely to get an uncontested lead?
Ingleby Archie is the sole front-runner in a pace shape that indicates a lone leader with high confidence.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
Four of the five principals — Sugar Baby, Raatea, Mr Cool and Hover On The Wind — are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse has the best recent consistency according to the form figures?
Mr Cool has the most consistent recent sequence with form figures of 352313 and three wins from his last ten starts.
Who has the strongest jockey strike rate at Redcar among the principals?
Alex Jary has a 14% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.84 from 74 rides when riding The Caltonian.
Which horse is dropping back up in distance after racing at the minimum trip?
Hover On The Wind steps back up in distance having raced at the minimum trip on his most recent outing.
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