6:35 Leopardstown
The Ballyroan Stakes is a Group 3 contest over a mile and a half at Leopardstown on good to firm ground, featuring a competitive field of nine smart performers. The KTB Fit ratings identify Ethical Diamond as the top horse on figures at 65, narrowly ahead of Endorsement on 60, with Green Impact and Gaucher completing the principals. Recent form is mixed across the runners, several of whom are trying new headgear, while the pace shape and trip will play a significant part in how the race unfolds.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of two or more habitual front-runners, with Green Impact and Dallas Star both inclined to go forward. This could set the race up for a late collapse, favouring the hold-up horses such as Endorsement, Gaucher, Layfayette, Ascending and Omni Man. The key question is whether the prominent runners can withstand the pressure or if the race will fall into the lap of those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ethical Diamond KTB Selection65/100Smart performer who has won three times at this trip and handles good to firm ground well with two wins from four starts.
- 2Endorsement60/100Smart performer who has won once and been placed twice from three runs at Leopardstown.
- 3Green Impact58/100Smart performer who has won all three starts at this track.
- 4Gaucher52/100Smart performer with a solid recent record including a win and a second from his last three starts.
- 5Layfayette50/100Smart performer who has run well at this track on several occasions without winning.
- 6Ascending46/100Useful performer who has placed on all three starts at this track without winning.
- 7Asakir46/100Useful performer who has already won here from his only start at Leopardstown.
- 8Omni Man44/100Useful performer who has run well enough at this trip in the past but has been below form on his last three starts.
- 9Dallas Star40/100Dallas Star is a useful performer who has won once from three starts at Leopardstown and arrives in reasonable form having placed twice in his last three outing…
The contenders
Ethical Diamond KTB Fit 65/100
Ethical Diamond is a smart performer who has won three times at this trip and handles good to firm ground well with two wins from four starts. He has placed once from four runs at Leopardstown but his recent form has been patchy and the first-time headgear is now reached for. Mullins has a solid 17% strike rate here from a huge sample while Moore is aboard. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, he could be vulnerable if the strong pace tells late on. The yard's 11/56 record with Moore carries an A/E of 0.86.
Endorsement KTB Fit 60/100
Endorsement is a smart performer who has won once and been placed twice from three runs at Leopardstown. He steps up to 1m4f for the first time today having already scored at the trip on his only previous attempt, and he has solid placed form on good to firm. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 13% strike rate here from a large sample while Dylan Browne McMonagle rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ideally placed if the strong pace collapses. The trainer and jockey combination shows 309/1636 with an A/E of 0.91.
Green Impact KTB Fit 58/100
Green Impact is a smart performer who has won all three starts at this track. He steps up in trip today having shown his best form over shorter, with no experience on good to firm ground adding further unknowns. Trainer's modest 10% strike rate here from a big sample is another negative. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he could set a strong gallop that may ultimately count against him. The trainer and jockey record stands at 419/3370 with an A/E of 0.82.
Gaucher KTB Fit 52/100
Gaucher is a smart performer with a solid recent record including a win and a second from his last three starts. He has won over today's trip but steps up in distance for the first time in a while and was only fourth when tried here once before. First-time headgear is another new factor while the yard's strong 17% strike rate at Leopardstown gives some encouragement. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is suited by the expected strong pace. The specific trainer and jockey partnership reads 15/115 with an A/E of 0.87.
The rest of the field
LayfayetteKTB Fit 50/100
Layfayette is a smart performer who has run well at this track on several occasions without winning. He drops back in trip today having scored three times at this distance in the past and has solid form on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is an interesting addition for a yard that operates at a 10% strike rate here. Usually held up, he could be well suited by the strong pace.
AscendingKTB Fit 46/100
Ascending is a useful performer who has placed on all three starts at this track without winning. He drops back from 1m6f to a trip he has won at before, and his record on good to firm ground reads a solid 1-2-5. Trainer's modest 8% strike rate from a large sample at Leopardstown tempers expectations. Stepping up in class and usually held up, he may benefit if the pace collapses.
AsakirKTB Fit 46/100
Asakir is a useful performer who has already won here from his only start at Leopardstown. He has shown a decent level of form this year though he was well held in a Group 3 last time and now drops back in trip as a fresh question while wearing headgear for the first time. The trainer's modest strike rate at the track is worth noting. Usually held up, he could be suited by the race shape.
Omni ManKTB Fit 44/100
Omni Man is a useful performer who has run well enough at this trip in the past but has been below form on his last three starts. He has shown little on his only visit to Leopardstown and has failed to place in two runs on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now applied. Usually held up and stepping up in class, he could be favoured by a strong pace.
Dallas StarKTB Fit 40/100
Dallas Star is a useful performer who has won once from three starts at Leopardstown and arrives in reasonable form having placed twice in his last three outings. He drops back from two and a half miles to 1m4f, a trip he has tried twice before without success, while his record on good to firm ground reads a modest four runs with no win or place. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 12 runs at this track. Tending to make the running, he will help ensure a strong pace.
KTB verdict
Ethical Diamond is the KTB Selection. He remains a smart performer at this trip with proven ability on good to firm ground, and the first-time headgear may help him bounce back from patchy recent form for a yard that performs solidly at Leopardstown. The prominent run-style will need to be judged against the likely strong pace, but the Mullins-Moore combination adds considerable strength to his claims. The main dangers are Endorsement, who is ideally suited to the shape from the rear and brings strong course form, and Green Impact, who could take the race by the scruff if his front-running effort holds up despite the trip and ground questions.
KTB Selection Ethical Diamond
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 6 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Ethical Diamond | 15/8 | Bet365 |
| Endorsement | 11/8 | Bet365 |
| Green Impact | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Gaucher | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Layfayette | 25/1 | Bet Victor |
| Ascending | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Asakir | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Omni Man | 40/1 | Bet Victor |
| Dallas Star | 33/1 | Bet Victor |
This is the narrative read of the 6:35 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time today?
Endorsement steps up to 1m4f for the first time today having already scored at the trip on his only previous attempt.
How many horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Four horses are wearing first-time headgear: Ethical Diamond, Gaucher, Layfayette and Asakir, with Omni Man also in first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Leopardstown among those represented?
W P Mullins has a 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from 2143 runs.
Which runners are likely to set the strong pace?
Green Impact tends to make the running or race on the pace and Dallas Star tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Who has won all three of their starts at Leopardstown?
Green Impact has won all three starts at this track.
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