4:50 Leopardstown
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden for two-year-olds over a mile at Leopardstown on good to firm ground brings together a field of nine with limited experience between them. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched from 48 down to 44, underlining how open the contest looks on paper. With only three runners having raced, the race is short on hard evidence and the pace shape is unclear given the low confidence in the available run-style data.
How the race shapes up
Run-style information is sparse across the field, leaving the pace shape unclear with low confidence. Francillon and Drumbeat are both noted as usually held up, suggesting they will produce their efforts from off the pace. How the race unfolds will therefore depend on which of the debutants chooses to take a more forward position, posing the key question of whether the race will be run at a genuine gallop or become a slow-burn affair that favours those coming from behind.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Francillon KTB Selection48/100Francillon showed promise when second on debut over this trip and looks capable of better with the run under his belt.
- 2Jesus Green47/100Jesus Green is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 13% strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample.
- 3Activity46/100Mrs John Harrington has a solid 10% strike rate from a huge 1830 runs at Leopardstown.
- 4Wall Street45/100Well-bred son of No Nay Never out of a useful mare who has produced several winners.
- 5Eagle Eyed45/100Eagle Eyed is a newcomer from the Aidan O'Brien yard, which has a 10 percent strike rate from 153 runs at Leopardstown.
- 6Ryano Bhino45/100Ryano Bhino is a debutant so assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record with juveniles.
- 7Drumbeat44/100Aidan O'Brien's colt showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut over 7f.
- 8Sovereign Jazz44/100Sovereign Jazz is a newcomer from a yard that has a 10% strike rate from 1701 runs at Leopardstown.
- 9Pints Of Glory44/100Pints Of Glory showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over this trip at the track.
The contenders
Francillon KTB Fit 48/100
Francillon shaped with promise when second on his only start to date over this trip, and with the run now behind him he looks capable of stepping forward. The G M Lyons yard holds an 11% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1178 runs, a solid record that adds to his appeal, while Colin Keane takes the mount with a 14% strike rate at the track from 887 rides. The trip is a positive but the colt remains unproven on good to firm having had just the one run. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and that run-style could prove well suited if the race develops pace up front. Overall the KTB Fit of 48 marks him out as the one to beat.
Jesus Green KTB Fit 47/100
Jesus Green arrives as a newcomer from the Joseph Patrick O'Brien stable, which posts a 13% strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample of 1055 runs. Bought for 72,000 euros as a yearling, he is by Ghaiyyath out of a mare who has already produced several winners including the high-class Group 3 winner Tenebrism. Dylan Browne McMonagle rides, bringing a 13% strike rate at the track from 286 rides. With no racecourse form on record the profile remains low on data confidence, yet the pedigree and yard record command respect in a race short of established form. The KTB Fit of 47 places him firmly in the mix.
Activity KTB Fit 46/100
Activity is another debutant, this time from the Mrs John Harrington yard that has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from a huge 1830 runs. By Gleneagles, he brings a workable pedigree and sales profile even if there is no racecourse evidence yet to assess. Shane Foley is in the saddle with an 11% strike rate at the track from 1006 rides. The KTB assessment rests on that yard record and pedigree alone given the absence of any prior starts, resulting in a low-confidence profile. At a KTB Fit of 46 he is entitled to plenty of respect in what looks a winnable heat.
Wall Street KTB Fit 45/100
Wall Street represents the powerful Aidan O'Brien operation, which has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from nearly 3000 runs, and debutants from this yard always warrant close attention. A well-bred son of No Nay Never out of a useful mare who has produced several winners, he was bought for 525,000 euros as a yearling. Wayne Lordan takes the ride, though the jockey's 8% strike rate at the track from 1257 rides is modest. No course win on record and no racecourse form means this remains pure guesswork at this stage. The KTB Fit of 45 nevertheless keeps him in the conversation.
The rest of the field
Eagle EyedKTB Fit 45/100
Eagle Eyed is a newcomer from the Donnacha Aidan O'Brien yard, which operates at a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from 153 runs. Assessment rests mainly on sales and pedigree background given the low data confidence, with connections expected to have him ready but little else to go on.
Ryano BhinoKTB Fit 45/100
Ryano Bhino makes his debut so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record with juveniles. Henry De Bromhead has an 8% strike rate at Leopardstown from 699 runs and W J Lee takes the ride, though no course-specific jockey data is available.
DrumbeatKTB Fit 44/100
Drumbeat showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut over 7f and now steps up to a mile for the first time, which asks a fresh question. Aidan O'Brien's colt is held up in his races and the yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from a huge sample.
Sovereign JazzKTB Fit 44/100
Sovereign Jazz is a newcomer from the Noel Meade yard that has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1701 runs. Low data confidence means the assessment rests mainly on sales and pedigree background, with connections hoping for a positive debut.
Pints Of GloryKTB Fit 44/100
Pints Of Glory showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over this trip at the track. The small sample makes it hard to gauge whether good-to-firm ground or the trip will suit, while trainer G M Lyons has an 11% strike rate here from 1178 runs.
KTB verdict
Francillon is the KTB Selection. He showed promise when second on debut over this trip and with the run under his belt he is expected to improve past that form. The yard's solid record at Leopardstown and the colt's late-run style add to his claims in a race where the pace shape is difficult to read with confidence. His main dangers are the well-bred newcomers Jesus Green, Activity and Wall Street, all of whom bring strong yard and pedigree credentials even if they lack racecourse evidence. Drumbeat's experience is offset by modest form so far.
KTB Selection Francillon
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 6 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Francillon | 8/11 | Bet Victor |
| Jesus Green | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Activity | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Wall Street | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Eagle Eyed | 25/1 | BetTom |
| Ryano Bhino | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Drumbeat | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Sovereign Jazz | 66/1 | William Hill |
| Pints Of Glory | 11/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Francillon on 48/100.
How many runners have previous racecourse experience?
Three: Francillon, Drumbeat and Pints Of Glory.
What is Aidan O'Brien's strike rate at Leopardstown?
20% from 2977 runs.
Which two horses are described as usually held up?
Francillon and Drumbeat.
Over what distance did Francillon finish second on debut?
This trip, one mile.
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