7:45 Hamilton
The 7:45 at Hamilton is the second division of a Class 4 handicap over an extended six furlongs on good to soft ground. A field of ten runners lines up, with the KTB numbers highlighting a fair few with course knowledge and varying degrees of recent form. Overall the ratings point to a competitive race where course-and-distance winners and those with strong trainer stats at the track are to the fore.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will get an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in late on. Montezuma is the only front-runner in the field and is likely to take them along from his draw in stall four, while the majority of the principals are held-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the clear leader can get away and dictate matters or if the pack, led by horses with late kick, can close the gap on this good to soft surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1City Captain KTB Selection68/100City Captain is a fair performer who has already won over this course and trip.
- 2Wobwobwob63/100Fair performer who has been out of form this season with a string of modest efforts.
- 3Lord Bertie59/100Lord Bertie is a fair performer on his best days but has been well below form this season with a string of unplaced efforts.
- 4Winged Messenger59/100Winged Messenger is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 5Miraculous57/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best when landing a similar race over this trip at Redcar in July.
- 6Montezuma56/100Montezuma is a fair performer who has been placed twice from four runs at Hamilton without winning.
- 7Iris Dancer55/100Modest performer who has won nine times here from 26 runs and knows her way around this track.
- 8They All Know Me50/100Modest performer who has mixed form this year and was well held last time.
- 9Daizen50/100Modest performer who has won twice at this trip from nine attempts but has been in and out this year with a recent form line of 50510.
- 10Dandy Magic47/100Modest performer who has won over this trip and on this ground.
The contenders
City Captain KTB Fit 68/100
City Captain is a fair performer who has already won over this course and trip. He drops back from 7f to a distance where he has four wins from seven starts and showed competitive form on good to soft ground last season. The trainer holds a strong 40% strike rate here while the jockey's 17% record from 231 rides adds further course know-how. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well positioned to strike if the lone leader sets a stiff enough pace. With a recent form line of 31-624 he arrives in reasonable order and his placed effort on good to soft underlines his effectiveness under these conditions.
Wobwobwob KTB Fit 63/100
Wobwobwob is a fair performer who has been out of form this season with a string of modest efforts. He drops back to a trip he has won at before and handles good to soft ground well with three wins from ten starts. Trainer Adrian Keatley has an 11% strike rate at Hamilton while the jockey is operating at 21%. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to bounce back from recent poor runs if he is to feature. His placed efforts on good to soft in the past offer some encouragement in the conditions.
Lord Bertie KTB Fit 59/100
Lord Bertie is a fair performer on his best days but has been well below form this season with a string of unplaced efforts. He drops back to a trip he has won over and handles good to soft ground, though this is his first run at Hamilton. The trainer has a solid 17% strike rate here while the jockey is operating above expectations with an A/E of 1.07. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to rediscover his best form to get involved. His recent form figures of -60069 underline the need for a revival.
Winged Messenger KTB Fit 59/100
Winged Messenger is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track. He has been out of form on his last three starts and the jockey is struggling at Hamilton with a 2% strike-rate. On the plus side the yard fires at a solid 18% here and the horse has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground. Typically settling in midfield, he has course-and-distance experience that could prove useful. His recent form of 31-405 shows glimpses of ability but consistency has been an issue.
Miraculous KTB Fit 57/100
Miraculous is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best when landing a similar race over this trip at Redcar in July. He has placed on his only start on good to soft and the yard and jockey both hold solid records around here. Drawn high and with 20 runs already this year he will need to be at his best again. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he steps up in class today. His recent form of 935781 includes that Redcar success but he has work to do from stall ten.
The rest of the field
MontezumaKTB Fit 56/100
Montezuma is a fair performer who has been placed twice from four runs at Hamilton without winning. He has won once and been placed on all three starts on good to soft ground, and he is stepping up from 5f to 6f today where he has been placed once in six attempts. The trainer operates at a 10% strike rate here from a large sample while the jockey has a stronger 23% record from 35 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is set to take the field along in what looks a lone-leader scenario.
Iris DancerKTB Fit 55/100
Iris Dancer is a modest performer who has won nine times here from 26 runs and knows her way around this track. She has three wins from ten starts on good to soft ground and has also scored at today's trip. Trainer Tristan Davidson has a solid 20% strike rate at Hamilton while jockey Andrew Mullen adds another 12% from his own record here. Usually held up and producing her effort late, her course record of nine wins makes her a respected runner.
They All Know MeKTB Fit 50/100
They All Know Me is a modest performer who has mixed form this year and was well held last time. He has placed both starts on good to soft and showed promise when second over course and distance on his only visit to Hamilton. Trainer and jockey both have solid records here though the drop back from a mile asks a fresh question. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his placed C&D form is the main positive.
DaizenKTB Fit 50/100
Daizen is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip from nine attempts but has been in and out this year with a recent form line of 50510. He has shown some ability here without troubling the judge in two runs at Hamilton and his sole try on good to soft ground yielded no win or place. Trainer Rebecca Menzies has a solid 12 percent strike rate from 86 runs at the track while jockey Cieren Fallon is operating at 22 percent from nine rides here. Usually held up, he needs to improve on recent efforts.
Dandy MagicKTB Fit 47/100
Dandy Magic is a modest performer who has won over this trip and on this ground. He has already scored at Hamilton and arrives in reasonable form having won last time out. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his latest success adds interest though he will need to back that up from stall nine.
KTB verdict
City Captain stands out as the KTB Selection. He has already won over this course and trip, drops back to his optimum distance where he boasts four wins from seven starts, and has shown he is competitive on good to soft. The 40% trainer strike rate at Hamilton combined with Callum Rodriguez's course experience adds further layers of confidence. Main dangers include the course specialist Iris Dancer with her remarkable nine wins from 26 starts here, the front-running Montezuma who could get an easy lead, and Winged Messenger who has previous winning form at the track.
KTB Selection City Captain
This is the narrative read of the 7:45 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Montezuma, as the only front-runner in the field with a run-style of tending to make the running or race on the pace.
How many course wins does Iris Dancer have at Hamilton?
Nine wins from 26 runs.
What is the trainer strike rate at Hamilton for the handler of City Captain?
40% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 2.07 from five runs.
Which horse has won over this course and distance most recently among the principals?
City Captain, who has won here with a record of one from one at the course.
What recent form has Miraculous shown at this trip?
He showed his best when landing a similar race over this trip at Redcar in July, with recent form figures of 935781.
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