6:45 Roscommon
This 0-0 fillies maiden over 7f111y at Roscommon on good ground features an 18-runner field where experience is thin on the ground and several debutants line up. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with the principals all sitting between 51 and 59, underlining a race that looks open on paper despite the presence of some consistent placed performers. The absence of a clear leader and the steadily-run, tactical pace shape suggested by the numbers point to a contest where positioning and timing will be key.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner in the field the pace is set to be steady rather than searching, making this a tactical affair in which being handy to a slow gallop should pay dividends. Most of the principals and field runners are hold-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late, which could lead to a bunching in the straight and place-getting traffic issues. The key question is whether any horse can overcome a wide draw or find the necessary stamina for the extra furlong while the tempo remains even.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1River Trieux KTB Selection59/100This debutant is by Lope de Vega out of a useful middle-distance winner who has already produced a Group-placed performer.
- 2Almeiyda55/100Almeiyda is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form this year, finishing second in three of her last four starts including over this trip.
- 3Andaman Fifty52/100Lightly raced colt with just two runs behind him and a modest start to his career when second then fifth.
- 4C'est Comme Ca51/100C'est Comme Ca makes its debut for a yard that has an 8% strike rate from 119 runs at Roscommon.
- 5Susie's Angel51/100Susie's Angel showed only modest form when sixth on debut over 7f.
- 6Dandymaria51/100Dandymaria has shown only modest form in two starts at six furlongs.
- 7Stooked49/100Stooked has shown fair ability with two placed efforts from as many starts and steps up in trip to 7½f where he is 1-1 without winning.
- 8Gentle Soda49/100Gentle Soda is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
- 9Brise Fraiche48/100Brise Fraiche is a first-time runner from a yard that has a solid 20% strike-rate at Roscommon from a large sample.
- 10Quinta Girl47/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year without progressing.
- 11Save The Sixes47/100Save The Sixes showed little on debut when finishing eighth over a mile.
- 12Capolinea47/100Capolinea has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing fifth then last.
- 13Banish Misfortune46/100Lightly raced with just three starts and poor recent form of 080.
- 14Ballysax Boo44/100Ballysax Boo showed little on debut when finishing ninth over a mile.
- 15Divine Legend42/100Divine Legend shaped with promise when fifth on debut and has run to a fair level in two starts since.
- 16Flower Forest41/100Flower Forest showed fair promise when finishing fourth on debut over 7f.
- 17Capall Cuain41/100Capall Cuain has shown little in two starts so far, finishing tailed off both times.
- 18Beatific39/100Beatific is a fair 3-year-old who has finished fifth on all three starts and now tries first-time headgear.
The contenders
River Trieux KTB Fit 59/100
River Trieux is a 3-year-old debutant by Lope de Vega out of a useful middle-distance winner who has already produced a Group-placed performer. The sales price was solid rather than spectacular yet the yard's excellent 46% strike rate at Roscommon from 24 runners adds plenty of interest. Connections will know plenty more than the public at this stage and the KTB Fit of 59 marks this one out as the selection. Siobhan Rutledge takes the ride while the draw in stall 7 looks workable in a steadily-run race. With no course win on record and by a sire with a 13% overall win rate the pedigree and yard form are the main pointers.
Almeiyda KTB Fit 55/100
Almeiyda is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form this year, finishing second in three of her last four starts including over this trip. She ran well when second on her only previous visit to Roscommon and steps up in trip again today having already been placed without winning at this distance. The Weld yard posts a 14% strike rate here from a large sample while Chris Hayes has a solid record at the track. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be suited by the steadily-run shape. Her KTB Fit of 55 reflects that consistency and course placings make her a clear danger from draw 9.
Andaman Fifty KTB Fit 52/100
Andaman Fifty is a lightly raced 3-year-old colt with just two runs behind him, showing a modest start to his career when second then fifth. Trainer P Twomey has a strong 46% strike rate from 24 runs at Roscommon and the yard's overall trainer-jockey combination with W J Lee reads 28% strike rate. The trip is a fresh question today stepping up from 6f to 7½f with data confidence low and the colt remains unproven on good ground. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is likely to be a tactical race. The KTB Fit of 52 keeps him firmly in the mix among the principals from a wide draw in 16.
C'est Comme Ca KTB Fit 51/100
C'est Comme Ca makes its debut for a yard that has an 8% strike rate from 119 runs at Roscommon. The 3-year-old is by Sioux Nation out of a dam who won over 6f as a 2-year-old, with a half-brother who scored over 7f. With no racecourse form and low data confidence its ability remains an open question despite the KTB Fit of 51. Donagh O'Connor takes the mount from a favourable draw in stall 2 which could prove beneficial in a steadily-run affair. The sire's 10% overall win rate offers a modest pointer but the yard will need to have him ready to be competitive on first start.
Susie's Angel KTB Fit 51/100
Susie's Angel showed only modest form when sixth on debut over 7f. She steps up in trip today to 7½f where she has already had one unsuccessful run at the distance. The trainer holds a 12% strike rate from 43 runs at Roscommon while the small overall sample means her ability remains largely unknown. Unproven on good ground, she lines up with a KTB Fit of 51 and will need to improve markedly if she is to feature. The lack of course form adds to the unknowns in what looks a steadily-run race.
The rest of the field
DandymariaKTB Fit 51/100
Dandymaria has shown only modest form in two starts at six furlongs. She now steps up to an unproven 7½f for the first time which asks a fresh question of her stamina. Trainer Oliver holds an 11% strike rate from 132 runs at Roscommon while data confidence remains low given the small sample.
StookedKTB Fit 49/100
Stooked has shown fair ability with two placed efforts from as many starts and steps up in trip to 7½f where he is 1-1 without winning. The yard has a solid 17% strike-rate at Roscommon from a big sample. Trip looks an open question and the going remains unknown with such a light career record.
Gentle SodaKTB Fit 49/100
Gentle Soda is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The pedigree and sales background are the main pointers here and connections have been patient with the colt. Trainer E McNamara has an 8% strike rate from 119 runs at Roscommon while jockey Robert Whearty is unproven at the track.
Brise FraicheKTB Fit 48/100
Brise Fraiche is a first-time runner from a yard that has a solid 20% strike-rate at Roscommon from a large sample. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien stable usually prepares its newcomers well enough to be competitive on debut. With low data confidence the pedigree and sales background offer the only real clues, but nothing concrete stands out.
Quinta GirlKTB Fit 47/100
Quinta Girl is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year without progressing. Steps up in trip today having failed to land a blow in two previous tries at this distance. Trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate here from 43 runs while the jockey's record at the track is not supplied.
Save The SixesKTB Fit 47/100
Save The Sixes showed little on debut when finishing eighth over a mile. Dropping back in trip to 7½f poses a fresh question for this lightly-raced 3-year-old. Trainer at Roscommon has a solid 13% strike-rate from 480 runs.
CapolineaKTB Fit 47/100
Capolinea has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing fifth then last. She drops back markedly in trip from 1m4f to 7½f having already been beaten at this distance, while the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Roscommon from 25 runs offers no encouragement. With only two career runs the form is too thin to read with any confidence.
Banish MisfortuneKTB Fit 46/100
Banish Misfortune is lightly raced with just three starts and poor recent form of 080. Steps up to 7½f today after racing over 6f last time and has already tried this trip once without success. Trainer has only three runs at Roscommon and the going sample is too small to judge, so this one remains hard to assess with any confidence.
Ballysax BooKTB Fit 44/100
Ballysax Boo showed little on debut when finishing ninth over a mile. The drop back to 7½f today poses a fresh question and the wide draw in stall 14 is far from ideal. Trainer Katy Brown has a 0% strike rate from five runs at Roscommon.
Divine LegendKTB Fit 42/100
Divine Legend shaped with promise when fifth on debut and has run to a fair level in two starts since. He steps up in trip today having been beaten on all three previous attempts at this distance. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at Roscommon from 121 runs.
Flower ForestKTB Fit 41/100
Flower Forest showed fair promise when finishing fourth on debut over 7f. He now steps up in trip to 7½f having already tried the distance once without success, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a 13% strike rate from 292 runs at Roscommon but the overall data confidence remains low given his lightly-raced profile.
Capall CuainKTB Fit 41/100
Capall Cuain has shown little in two starts so far, finishing tailed off both times. The drop back from a mile to today's 7½f raises a fresh question while the small sample makes it hard to judge whether the ground or the track will suit. Trainer Dermot Kilmartin is 0-8 at Roscommon.
BeatificKTB Fit 39/100
Beatific is a fair 3-year-old who has finished fifth on all three starts and now tries first-time headgear. He drops back from 1m to a trip he has already tried twice without success, while the wide draw in stall 17 adds to the difficulty. The yard's modest 10% strike rate at Roscommon is noted but the small sample on this ground leaves that side of things unknown.
KTB verdict
River Trieux is the KTB Selection in a race where the debutant factor and steadily-run shape make it hard to be dogmatic. The selection's pedigree, sales background and the yard's exceptional 46% strike rate at Roscommon from a small but meaningful sample give connections every chance of knowing more than the market. Almeiyda looks the most solid danger on the back of consistent placed efforts including over course and distance, while Andaman Fifty, C'est Comme Ca and Susie's Angel all bring enough to the table to make this an interesting heat. The race should be decided by which horse handles the tactical pace best and finds the necessary improvement or debut spark.
KTB Selection River Trieux
This is the narrative read of the 6:45 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Roscommon among the principals?
River Trieux and Andaman Fifty share the same trainer P Twomey who has a 46% strike rate at Roscommon from 24 runs.
How many runners are making their racecourse debut?
River Trieux, C'est Comme Ca and Gentle Soda are all debutants.
Which horse has course form at Roscommon?
Almeiyda has one previous run here when finishing second.
What is the run-style of the majority of the field?
Most runners are held up, usually producing their effort late.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Beatific is the only horse declared in first-time headgear.
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