7:30 Down Royal
The second division of the Grant Thornton Handicap at Down Royal is a 17-runner 1m4f194y contest on good ground. It features a field of largely limited performers where consistency is at a premium and few boast strong recent winning form. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, underlining a race that looks tactical and modest in quality overall.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. With the majority of the field, including all five principals, tending to be held up and produce their efforts late, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace. The key question will be whether any horse can quicken effectively off a modest gallop or whether those positioned more prominently can steal an uncontested advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Without Love KTB Selection56/100
Without Love is a limited performer who has shown consistency without winning. He has placed on good ground twice from three starts and finished second on his only previous run at this trip. Today he drops back from 1m6f while making his first visit to Down Royal. The trainer holds a 13 percent strike rate here from eight runners. Usually held up, Without Love produces his effort late and from draw 2 he should be well placed to launch a challenge in a steadily-run race. His recent form figures read 402268.
-
2Spy53/100
Spy is a limited performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track but lacks a win in 44 career starts. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance last time out, with a modest record on good ground overall. The trainer and jockey both hold solid 16% strike rates here from decent sample sizes, and their combined record reads 4/15 with an A/E of 1.77. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Spy has course form of 3rd and 4th from two runs. His recent form figures read 3361-0.
-
3Zitkala Sa51/100
Zitkala Sa is a limited performer who has shown only modest form across six starts with a string of mid-pack finishes. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer and jockey both have solid 14% strike rates at Down Royal. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the three-year-old has no course form on record and has failed to win or place in three runs on good ground. His recent form figures read 660368.
-
4Dancing Steve50/100
Dancing Steve is a limited performer who has shown his best at this track with two placed efforts from six runs. He steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact the only previous time he tried this distance and his recent form is modest at best. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey has a solid 14% from his small number of rides, and their combined record reads 15/119 with an A/E of 0.93. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Dancing Steve has course form that includes a second and a third. His recent form figures read -00083.
-
5Charlie Brow'n48/100
Charlie Brow'n is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in recent starts and is dropping back in trip today having failed to win in two previous tries at this distance. He has placed three times from four runs on good ground yet remains winless on that surface. The trainer's record at Down Royal is poor while the jockey has a more respectable but still below-par strike rate here, and their combined record reads 55/1211 with an A/E of 0.55. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Charlie Brow'n has no course form on record. His recent form figures read 515-73.
-
6Tassarolo48/100
Tassarolo is a limited horse who has been consistent enough to place on good ground without winning. He showed nothing special when fifth here on his only previous visit and steps back up to a trip at which he has been beaten all three starts. The trainer operates at 9% here from 92 runs while the jockey is on 8% from 222 rides.
-
7Connecteo44/100
Connecteo is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent runs and now tries headgear for the first time. He drops back in trip from 1m6f to a distance he has never raced over, which poses a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Down Royal.
-
8Queen Of Astolat43/100
Queen Of Astolat is a limited filly who has shown only modest form at best and has failed to place in her last four starts. She drops back from 1m6f with first-time headgear today while making her debut at this track on ground she has not convinced on. Trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records here.
-
9Rio Doce41/100
Rio Doce is a limited horse who has shown very little in seven starts and was well beaten on his only previous run here. First-time headgear is now applied as he steps up markedly in trip. Trainer has had too few runners at the track to judge while the jockey's modest strike rate is in line with expectations.
-
10Acanto41/100
Acanto is a limited performer on his three starts to date and now steps up in trip with first-time headgear. The yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Down Royal from a big sample but the jockey is operating at only 2% here from 52 rides. Data confidence is only medium so this remains something of an unknown quantity.
-
11Mullacurry Maid41/100
Mullacurry Maid is a limited performer who has shown very little in six starts and looks up against it from the widest draw. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Down Royal. Trip is an unknown at this stage.
-
12Haeret In Pectore35/100
Haeret In Pectore is a limited performer who has shown very little in seven starts and was well beaten again last time. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has an 8% strike rate at Down Royal from 613 runs.
-
13Duleek Street33/100
Duleek Street is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in recent starts and now drops back from 2m. Only placed once from eight runs on good ground and has failed to win in two attempts at this trip. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Down Royal.
-
14Mapa33/100
Mapa is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and is now 0-23. Has placed once from 12 runs on good ground and has been tried over this trip three times without success. The trainer has yet to land a winner from 17 attempts at Down Royal while the jockeys modest 5% strike-rate from 332 rides here adds little encouragement.
-
15Mystic Rose33/100
Mystic Rose is a limited performer who has been largely out of her depth in recent starts and has failed to place on good ground in six attempts. She drops back in trip having been well held over further last time, though she has already tried this distance once without success. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 14 runs at Down Royal while the 7lb claimer has too few rides here to judge.
-
16Idomything32/100
Idomything is a limited performer who has failed to place in any of his last six starts and shown nothing better than modest form at this track from three previous runs. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 13 runs here while the horse is also winless from eight starts on good ground. He is stepping back up to a trip at which he has won once from four attempts.
-
17Autocrat30/100
Autocrat is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year with just one win from his last 23 starts. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground but remains winless at this trip from two attempts. The trainer has had too few runners here to judge while the jockey's modest 6% strike rate from 18 rides adds little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Without Love is the KTB Selection. A limited but consistent performer, he has placed on good ground and finished second at this trip, while the drop back from 1m6f looks suitable in a steadily-run affair where his held-up style can be effective from a low draw. The trainer's record at the track adds encouragement. Main dangers are Spy, who has shown consistent placed form here, and Zitkala Sa, who steps up markedly in trip but represents a yard and jockey in solid form at Down Royal. Dancing Steve and Charlie Brow'n are next in the KTB Fit order and cannot be entirely dismissed given their course placings and good-ground competitiveness respectively.
KTB Selection Without Love
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Down Royal. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Down Royal racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Down Royal results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the race look tactical?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence and the majority of runners, including all five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late.
What is Without Love's record on good ground?
Placed 2 of 3 on good, competitive with no win.
How many times has Spy been placed at Down Royal?
Ran 2 times here: 3rd, 4th — placed, no win.
Which horse is trying first-time headgear?
Connecteo, Queen Of Astolat, Rio Doce and Acanto are all wearing first-time headgear.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Down Royal with Dancing Steve?
7% strike rate at Down royal · A/E 0.71 (213 runs).
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
More from Kickthebookies