7:00 Wolverhampton (AW)
A competitive Class 5 fillies' handicap over 1m 142y on the standard surface at Wolverhampton features a field of ten, most of them modest performers seeking to capitalise on an uncontested lead. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by the selection on 58 with the next four between 55 and 48, suggesting a race where small margins and how the pace unfolds will matter. Recent form is mixed, with several runners in reasonable heart and others looking to bounce back or improve with new headgear or a drop in class.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Khepri is the only front-runner in the field, which should allow her an uncontested lead that is often difficult for closers to overcome at this venue. Most of the principals and field are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late, with Blue Celestial the notable mid-division runner. The key question is whether anything can bridge the gap to the uncontested leader or if the shape will play into the hands of those able to race prominently enough to stay in touch.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sunshine And Roses KTB Selection58/100Modest performer who has won once from six starts at Wolverhampton and shows a solid record on standard ground with one win and four places from nine runs.
- 2Blue Celestial55/100Modest performer who has been consistent without winning, placing in five of his last six starts including two runs here.
- 3Samra Star49/100Modest performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has two wins from seven starts at today's trip.
- 4Khepri49/100Modest performer who has shown consistent form in three starts so far, finishing fourth each time without threatening the principals.
- 5Gladiadora48/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time.
- 6Mimi's Magic47/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing second here on her penultimate start before a lesser effort last time.
- 7Albertini Star45/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on his last two starts, finishing placed both times after a slow start to his career.
- 8Sailor's Return44/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in six runs this year and now tries headgear for the first time.
- 9Goldie Trickett41/100Limited performer who has been consistent enough to place without winning in nine starts.
- 10Delevingne Dream35/100Limited performer who has shown very little in three starts this year following a debut defeat.
The contenders
Sunshine And Roses KTB Fit 58/100
Sunshine And Roses is a modest performer who has won once from six starts at Wolverhampton and shows a solid record on standard ground with one win and four places from nine runs. She steps up in trip today having already won at this distance from two attempts, which looks a fair fit given the recent form of 4-0712. Jack Channon has an 18% strike rate here from 90 runs while Rose Dawes is aboard and brings a 17% strike rate at the track herself with an A/E of 1.65 from 42 rides. The trainer and jockey combination carries an overall 16/131 record. Usually held up, she produces her effort late and will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time up front.
Blue Celestial KTB Fit 55/100
Blue Celestial is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning, placing in five of his last six starts including two runs here where he has finished second and third. He steps up in trip today having already shown he handles the distance, and he acts on the standard surface having been placed on three of five runs. James Tate has a solid 19% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 637 runs while Silvestre De Sousa adds his own proven 17% strike rate at the track from 901 rides. Their combined record stands at 1/35 with an A/E of 0.17. Typically settling in midfield, he will aim to stay on from a handy position in what looks like a race with an uncontested leader.
Samra Star KTB Fit 49/100
Samra Star is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has two wins from seven starts at today's trip. Her recent form of 438211 shows two victories in the last four outings and the first-time headgear is now applied in what is a step up in class. Linda Perratt holds a solid 14% strike rate here from 175 runs while Oisin Murphy rides with a 22% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 618 rides. Their record together reads 3/5. Usually held up, she produces her effort late and will be hoping the headgear sparks further progress from off the pace in a contest where the leader may not be challenged early.
Khepri KTB Fit 49/100
Khepri is a modest performer who has shown consistent form in three starts so far, finishing fourth each time without threatening the principals. Dropping back from 1m4f to an untried 1m poses a fresh question while first-time headgear is now applied as she drops in class. K R Burke has a 12% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 1424 runs and Clifford Lee partners her with a 13% strike rate at the track from 589 rides. Their combined record stands at 397/2485 with an A/E of 0.92. She tends to make the running or race on the pace, which in a race with a lone-leader shape should allow her an uncontested lead that could prove hard to peg back.
Gladiadora KTB Fit 48/100
Gladiadora is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time. She has a placed effort on this trip but showed little when seventh on her only previous visit to Wolverhampton. The trainer's modest record here of 8% strike rate from 13 runs adds little encouragement, though she does act on standard ground with two wins from six runs. Charlie Clover and Saffie Osborne combine with a 5/14 record and an A/E of 2.00. Usually held up, she will be produced late and needs to improve on that previous course effort if she is to figure in a race where the pace shape may favour those closer to the front.
The rest of the field
Mimi's MagicKTB Fit 47/100
Mimi's Magic is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing second here on her penultimate start before a lesser effort last time. She steps up in trip again today having failed to land a blow at this distance twice already, while first-time headgear is now applied in a bid to spark improvement. Ed Dunlop has a solid 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 839 runs.
Albertini StarKTB Fit 45/100
Albertini Star is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his last two starts, finishing placed both times after a slow start to his career. He drops back in trip today having last run over 1m2f and he has been placed at this distance without winning. Alan King has a solid 14% strike rate from 340 runs at Wolverhampton.
Sailor's ReturnKTB Fit 44/100
Sailor's Return is a modest performer who has shown little spark in six runs this year and now tries headgear for the first time. The step up in trip asks a fresh question and the yard's solid 12 percent strike rate at Wolverhampton offers some hope. David O'Meara and Daniel Tudhope combine with a 15% strike rate at the track.
Goldie TrickettKTB Fit 41/100
Goldie Trickett is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place without winning in nine starts. She drops back from 1m2f to a trip she has never tried while making her first visit to Wolverhampton. Jane Chapple-Hyam records a 12% strike-rate here from 277 runs and the horse has shown she can be competitive on standard going.
Delevingne DreamKTB Fit 35/100
Delevingne Dream is a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts this year following a debut defeat. First-time headgear is now fitted and the step up in trip poses a fresh question. Harry Eustace's modest 5% strike-rate at Wolverhampton from 94 runs offers little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Sunshine And Roses is the KTB Selection and arrives with a strong course record, having already won at Wolverhampton and at this trip. Her solid standard-ground profile, recent form that includes a win and a second, and the positive trainer and jockey reads at the track all point to her being suited by the conditions. The uncontested lead shape may make life tough for held-up runners, but she is proven over the distance and looks the one to beat. Main dangers are Blue Celestial, who brings strong recent consistency and placed form at the track, and Samra Star, who has won twice here and now tries first-time headgear off the back of two victories. Khepri could also take advantage of the lone-leader shape if the headgear helps her see out the shorter trip.
KTB Selection Sunshine And Roses
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won at this trip and at Wolverhampton?
Sunshine And Roses, who has won once from six starts at the course and won at this distance from two attempts.
How many recent wins has Samra Star recorded in her last four outings?
Two victories, as shown by her recent form figures of 438211.
Which runner is the only front-runner and likely to get an uncontested lead?
Khepri, whose run-style is to make the running or race on the pace.
What is the course record for the selection Sunshine And Roses?
Won here from six starts.
Which horse is stepping up in trip having already shown it handles the distance?
Blue Celestial.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies