7:30 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 5 handicap at Wolverhampton over 6f20y on standard ground brings together a field of eight three-year-olds, several of whom have shown modest but usable form on the all-weather. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly grouped at the top, with Up The Agenda heading the list on 66, followed closely by Sargent Dennis on 63, while the remainder sit between 56 and 44. Dropping in class looks a positive for a couple of runners, and with several hold-up performers in the line-up the race sets up as one that could be decided by how well the strong pace holds up.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two confirmed front-runners present, most notably Arishka's Dream and Percy's Star. This could set the race up for late closers, with several hold-up types such as Up The Agenda, Sargent Dennis, Escape Plan, Fizzy Cristal and Soca Star poised to pounce if the leaders fold late. The key question is whether the pace collapses sufficiently in the straight to allow the hold-up horses to get there on time, or whether one of the prominent runners can steal it.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Up The Agenda KTB Selection66/100Modest performer who has won three times including twice on standard ground.
- 2Sargent Dennis63/100Modest performer who has shown consistent form this year with two seconds and a win from his last five starts.
- 3Acclaimed Freedom56/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency on the AW without winning.
- 4Arishka's Dream55/100Modest performer who has already won over this trip and on the course here.
- 5Percy's Star55/100Modest performer who has shown mixed form across five runs, winning once at 5f but also finishing well beaten on his most recent start.
- 6Escape Plan50/100Modest performer who has won over this trip but has been below that level in three of his last four starts.
- 7Fizzy Cristal45/100Modest performer who has won twice on standard ground, including at this trip.
- 8Soca Star44/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning.
The contenders
Up The Agenda KTB Fit 66/100
Up The Agenda is a modest performer who has won three times, including twice on standard ground. He drops back to his winning 6f trip today after a couple of lesser efforts over 7f and is well drawn in stall 1, which looks ideal given his usual held-up run-style. The trainer has a solid 18% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 40 runs, while the jockey has a 12% strike rate at the track from 806 rides. He has recorded 2 wins from 4 starts on standard going with a further 2 placed efforts, and the drop in class is another plus. His recent form reads 3-1786.
Sargent Dennis KTB Fit 63/100
Sargent Dennis is a modest performer who has shown consistent form this year with two seconds and a win from his last five starts. He has already placed here over today's trip on his only visit to Wolverhampton and is bred to handle the surface. The trainer holds a solid 18% strike rate at the track from 90 runs, while the jockey has a 17% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 42 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late, which could be advantageous given the expected strong pace. His recent form reads 52217 and he has been placed once from two runs on standard going.
Acclaimed Freedom KTB Fit 56/100
Acclaimed Freedom is a modest performer who has shown some consistency on the AW without winning. He has already placed at this trip and holds a solid record on the standard surface, with 1 win from 2 starts and another placed effort. Dropping in class could help, and he typically settles in midfield. The trainer has a 16% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 216 runs, while Oisin Murphy has a 22% strike rate at the track from 618 rides. His recent form has been a bit up and down and reads -86246.
Arishka's Dream KTB Fit 55/100
Arishka's Dream is a modest performer who has already won over this trip and on the course here, with 1 win from 4 starts at Wolverhampton. Recent form has been patchy with two placed efforts from her last six starts but she does handle the standard surface well enough, recording 1 win from 7 starts and 5 placed efforts. She tends to make the running or race on the pace, which will put her right into the expected strong pace. The trainer's record at the track is modest at 10% from 124 runs, the jockey has no record at Wolverhampton, and the step back up in trip adds a question mark. Her recent form reads 312288.
The rest of the field
Percy's StarKTB Fit 55/100
Percy's Star is a modest performer who has shown mixed form across five runs, winning once at 5f but also finishing well beaten on his most recent start. He steps up to 6f for the first time today having been placed without winning at the trip before, while first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 603 runs and Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride. He tends to make the running or race on the pace. His recent form reads 52416.
Escape PlanKTB Fit 50/100
Escape Plan is a modest performer who has won over this trip but has been below that level in three of his last four starts. He showed some ability when second here on his only previous visit to Wolverhampton and has placed once from two runs on standard going. First-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 159 runs and the jockey has a 16% strike rate at the track from 512 rides. He is usually held up. His recent form reads -71887.
Fizzy CristalKTB Fit 45/100
Fizzy Cristal is a modest performer who has won twice on standard ground, including at this trip. Dropping back from 7f should suit and the yard has a 7% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 15 runs. He is usually held up with high confidence. Only one previous run at Wolverhampton yielded a fifth and the recent form has been patchy. His recent form reads -61455.
Soca StarKTB Fit 44/100
Soca Star is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning. He has placed on his only previous visit to Wolverhampton and the yard has a 12% strike rate at the track from 74 runs. He steps up to 6f for the first time today after two defeats at the trip already this year and is usually held up. His recent form reads 73-255.
KTB verdict
Up The Agenda is the KTB Selection. He arrives as a modest but three-time winner who drops back to his winning 6f trip having looked stretched over 7f lately, is well drawn in stall 1 for his held-up style, and benefits from a trainer with a solid record at Wolverhampton. The drop in class is also in his favour on standard ground where he has won twice from four starts. Sargent Dennis, who has already placed here and is in consistent form, looks the main danger, while Acclaimed Freedom and Arishka's Dream are capable of playing a part if the strong pace sets up as expected.
KTB Selection Up The Agenda
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Arishka's Dream and Percy's Star both tend to make the running or race prominently.
Why is stall 1 considered a good draw for Up The Agenda?
Up The Agenda is usually held up and produces his effort late, so the inside draw allows him to track the race without being too wide.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Up The Agenda, Acclaimed Freedom and Percy's Star are all dropping in class.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Percy's Star and Escape Plan are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Wolverhampton among the principals?
Jack Morland has an 18% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 40 runs for Up The Agenda, matching Jack Channon's 18% from 90 runs for Sargent Dennis.
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