7:01 Chepstow
A modest Class 6 handicap over 7f16y at Chepstow on good to firm ground brings together six three-year-olds, most of whom have shown only limited ability to date. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 55 and 41, underlining the ordinary nature of the contest and the likelihood that any of the principals could feature. Grand Vista heads the KTB Fit at 55 despite modest efforts so far, with Escape Magic close behind on 51 after a recent course and distance success.
How the race shapes up
With limited early speed on show, the pace shape is expected to be on the steady side. Escape Magic from stall one is likely to take up a prominent position, while Grand Vista and Who Is Alice should also be handy enough. The key question is whether the race will develop sufficient tempo for those coming from off the pace, or whether it will turn into a test of positioning and a late kick over this stiff 7f.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Grand Vista KTB Selection55/100Grand Vista has shown only limited ability in four starts to date with a string of modest efforts including two this year.
- 2Escape Magic51/100Limited horse who showed little in his first three starts before springing a surprise when winning a 7f maiden here on good to firm last month.
- 3Who Is Alice50/100Modest performer who has won once over this trip and once at Chepstow from limited starts at the track.
- 4Musical Soldier42/100Musical Soldier is a limited performer who has shown his best form when winning at this trip.
- 5Luna Beaux41/100Luna Beaux is a limited performer who has been busy this year and looks exposed after 17 runs.
- 6Ken Brulee41/100Limited performer who has shown little since winning a weak 6f maiden on the AW in February.
The contenders
Grand Vista KTB Fit 55/100
Grand Vista has shown only limited ability in four starts to date with a string of modest efforts including two this year. The yard have a strong 24% strike rate at Chepstow and the jockey is also operating above expectations there. Stepping up to 7f for the first time asks a fresh question of this lightly raced sort. The trainer and jockey combination has produced a 2/13 record with an A/E of 0.93. He has no previous experience of good to firm ground or this course. Drawn in stall four, he should be capable of taking a prominent position in a race that may not be strongly run.
Escape Magic KTB Fit 51/100
Escape Magic showed little in his first three starts before springing a surprise when winning a 7f maiden here on good to firm last month. Stall one looks ideal and he has already won on this ground and at today's trip. Trainer's modest 9% strike rate at the track offers little encouragement while the jockey has too few rides here to judge. The partnership has an excellent 17/51 record with an A/E of 1.53 and positive returns of +£33.62. He has recent form figures of 760-1 and should be able to adopt a forward position from his low draw in what is likely to be a steadily run affair.
Who Is Alice KTB Fit 50/100
Who Is Alice is a modest performer who has won once over this trip and once at Chepstow from limited starts at the track. Recent form has been poor though and she steps up in distance today from a string of below-par efforts over 6f. Trainer and jockey both operate at a low strike rate here. The yard is 0/21 with this jockey and an A/E of 0.00 while both have modest records individually at Chepstow. She has shown ability on good to firm ground with one win from five starts and has course winning form. From draw three she should be able to race prominently.
Musical Soldier KTB Fit 42/100
Musical Soldier is a limited performer who has shown his best form when winning at this trip. He has been below that level on his last two starts though and is 0-2 on good to firm ground. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate here while the jockey is more established with a 14% record from 226 rides at the track. Recent form reads 671520. He has no course form on record. Drawn widest in stall six, his run-style should see him positioned towards the rear in a race that may lack strong early fractions.
The rest of the field
Luna BeauxKTB Fit 41/100
Luna Beaux is a limited performer who has been busy this year and looks exposed after 17 runs. She has shown little on good to firm ground and was only fifth when tried here over 6f last time. The step up to 7f is an unknown and both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track.
Ken BruleeKTB Fit 41/100
Ken Brulee is a limited performer who has shown little since winning a weak 6f maiden on the AW in February. He ran respectably when third over 6f here last month but has failed to build on it since and now steps up in trip for the first time. Trainer Mark Usher has a modest 7% strike rate at Chepstow from a large sample while Ryan Kavanagh rides the track well.
KTB verdict
Grand Vista is the KTB Selection at the head of the Fit ratings. He remains lightly raced and the yard's excellent 24% strike rate at Chepstow along with the jockey's solid record at the track provide encouragement despite his modest efforts to date. The step up to 7f could unlock more from him in a race that may not be strongly contested. Escape Magic is the obvious danger having won over course and distance last time on this ground, though the trainer's modest record at the venue tempers enthusiasm. Who Is Alice and Musical Soldier cannot be entirely dismissed on their best efforts but both arrive in modest form.
KTB Selection Grand Vista
This is the narrative read of the 7:01 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course and distance winning form in this field?
Escape Magic won a 7f maiden here on good to firm last month.
How does the trainer of Grand Vista perform at Chepstow?
The yard have a 24% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.34 from 21 runs.
What is the going record for Escape Magic?
He has 1 win from 1 run on good to firm.
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time in this race?
Both Grand Vista and Ken Brulee are stepping up to 7f for the first time.
What is the Chepstow record of the trainer and jockey pairing for Who Is Alice?
The trainer and jockey combination is 0/21 with an A/E of 0.00.
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