7:36 Chepstow
This Class 6 handicap over 1m14y at Chepstow on good to firm ground features a field of nine limited performers where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 63 and 43. Recent form is mixed across the runners, with several showing consistency without winning of late while others bring modest or patchy records to the table. The KTB numbers highlight above-average trainer and jockey strike rates at the track for a few key players, though several others arrive with questions over the trip, the surface or the venue itself.
How the race shapes up
The race-level pace shape suggests a fairly even distribution of run-styles with no pronounced speed bias expected. Several runners, including the well-drawn Ajrad from stall two and Nammos from stall one, are likely to be prominent or on the pace, while others such as Bobby Dassler and Galactic Glow may settle in mid-division. The key question is whether the rail draw holders can maintain their position on good to firm ground or if the race will be decided by those coming from just off the pace in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Bobby Dassler KTB Selection63/100Bobby Dassler is a limited handicapper who has been in decent heart of late with form figures of 234813.
- 2Mr Tony59/100Modest 2-year-old who has shown mixed form, winning a weak 7f maiden on his penultimate start before finishing a well-beaten third on his final outing.
- 3Nammos54/100Nammos is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent win at this trip mixed in among some lesser efforts.
- 4D Day Major Winter49/100Limited horse who has shown little for a while and was well held on return at Bath.
- 5Galactic Glow48/100Galactic Glow is a limited performer who has been consistent in recent months without winning, finishing in the first three four times from his last six starts.
- 6Amathus48/100Limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and rarely wins.
- 7Denby's Dream47/100Denby's Dream has shown some ability on this trip with a win from five starts and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with one win from two runs.
- 8Ajrad45/100Ajrad is a limited handicapper who has won three times at this track from nine runs and also has four wins from fifteen starts at this trip.
- 9Fozzy Osbourne43/100Limited horse who has shown very little in three starts to date.
The contenders
Bobby Dassler KTB Fit 63/100
Bobby Dassler is a limited handicapper who has been in decent heart of late with form figures of 234813. He has won over this trip and at this track from limited attempts, while the going looks suitable on his record. The trainer and jockey both have above-average strike rates here, with the trainer at 14% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 3.46 from 7 runs and the jockey at 17% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.26 from 12 rides. A 7-year-old drawn in stall 7, he arrives with recent form that includes a win and consistent placings, making him the KTB Selection.
Mr Tony KTB Fit 59/100
Mr Tony is a modest 2-year-old who has shown mixed form, winning a weak 7f maiden on his penultimate start before finishing a well-beaten third on his final outing. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having been unsuccessful in one previous try at the trip, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have too few rides at Chepstow to draw any conclusions from, though the jockey has a 100% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 2.88 from 1 ride. The yard shows a 25% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.77 from 4 runs, but he remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Nammos KTB Fit 54/100
Nammos is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent win at this trip mixed in among some lesser efforts. He has no experience of Chepstow but the yard's solid 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.37 from 57 runs offers some encouragement while the jockey's record is more modest at 8% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.83 from 243 rides. The trainer and jockey combined show 1 win from 30 rides with an A/E of 0.58. Only one run on good to firm ground leaves his effectiveness on today's surface open to question, and he is drawn in stall 1.
D Day Major Winter KTB Fit 49/100
D Day Major Winter is a limited horse who has shown little for a while and was well held on return at Bath. He drops back to 1m today having failed to win in five previous attempts at the trip while the switch to Chepstow is an unknown. The trainer has a strong 17% strike rate here from a small sample with an A/E of 4.63 from 6 runs but the jockey is only 8% from 218 rides at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.91. Recent form of 8287-6 underlines his modest level, though he has been competitive on good to firm without winning.
The rest of the field
Galactic GlowKTB Fit 48/100
Galactic Glow is a limited performer who has been consistent in recent months without winning, finishing in the first three four times from his last six starts. He has been placed twice from three runs at Chepstow and acts on good to firm ground with two wins and eight places from 13 starts, and is trying this trip again having been placed four times from seven starts at it.
AmathusKTB Fit 48/100
Amathus is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and rarely wins. He has shown a bit of spark on his last two starts but remains modest at this level and was only fifth both times he ran here, stepping up to 1m for the first time in a while having been placed without winning at the trip previously.
Denby's DreamKTB Fit 47/100
Denby's Dream has shown some ability on this trip with a win from five starts and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with one win from two runs. The limited class read matches a career that has produced just one success from 11 starts and recent form that includes a last-time-out win but also several modest efforts, while both trainer and jockey have very small samples at Chepstow so their local record cannot be relied upon.
AjradKTB Fit 45/100
Ajrad is a limited handicapper who has won three times at this track from nine runs and also has four wins from fifteen starts at this trip. He has been below form on his last few starts but is well drawn in stall two on ground he has handled in the past. The yard has a 12% strike rate from 417 runs here while the jockey is operating at 9% from 53 rides.
Fozzy OsbourneKTB Fit 43/100
Fozzy Osbourne is a limited horse who has shown very little in three starts to date. The step up to 1m is an unknown that could help but the yard’s modest record here offers no encouragement, though the jockey has a solid 14% strike rate from 50 rides at the track and he is dropping in class.
KTB verdict
Bobby Dassler stands out as the KTB Selection in a race where the principals are closely matched on the numbers. His recent form of 234813 shows him in decent heart, he has already won over this trip and at Chepstow, and the going is suitable on his record, backed by above-average trainer and jockey strike rates at the venue. The main dangers are Mr Tony, who brings some ability despite the trip question and unproven ground, Nammos with his recent win at the distance and yard encouragement at the track, and D Day Major Winter if the trainer's strong local record comes to the fore.
KTB Selection Bobby Dassler
This is the narrative read of the 7:36 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won both at this trip and at Chepstow?
Bobby Dassler has won over this trip and at this track from limited attempts.
How many times has Galactic Glow been placed at Chepstow?
Galactic Glow has been placed twice from three runs at Chepstow.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Chepstow for the yard of Nammos?
The yard of Nammos has a 14% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.37 from 57 runs.
Which runner is unproven on good to firm ground?
Mr Tony has no runs on good to firm and is unproven on the ground.
How many course wins does Ajrad have at Chepstow?
Ajrad has won here three times from nine runs.
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