7:05 Chepstow
This Class 4 handicap over the extended mile at Chepstow serves as a qualifier for the Chepstow Mile Series and features a compact field of seven on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit scores point to a competitive but modest contest overall, with Auburn Avenue heading the numbers on 64. Several runners are making their first visit to the track while others have proven course form, and the race sees a mix of horses stepping up and dropping in class.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy is likely to pay. With the majority of the field, including the top four in the KTB rankings, tending to be held up or race in mid-division, the early gallop could be modest. This sets up a race that may be decided in the final couple of furlongs, with those capable of producing a late effort from a good position holding the key.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Auburn Avenue KTB Selection64/100Modest performer who won over 7f here on his only previous visit to Chepstow and has shown he handles good to firm ground.
- 2Spirit Of The Bay57/100Modest performer who has won three times at this track from seven runs and also has five wins from 22 starts at this trip.
- 3Revelance57/100Revelance is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, winning once from six attempts.
- 4Nakaaha54/100Fair performer who has won three times over today's trip from 11 attempts.
- 5Talis Evolvere53/100Talis Evolvere is a fair performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been inconsistent overall with a recent record of 808276.
- 6Windbreaker50/100Fair performer who has been consistent without winning.
- 7Serenity Blue49/100Serenity Blue is a fair performer on the balance of its ratings and race history.
The contenders
Auburn Avenue KTB Fit 64/100
Auburn Avenue is a modest performer who won over 7f here on his only previous visit to Chepstow and has shown he handles good to firm ground. He steps up to 1m for the first time today after a recent win at that shorter trip, though he has been placed without winning over this distance in the past. The yard and jockey both hold solid records at the track, with the trainer posting a 17% strike rate at Chepstow from 66 runs and an A/E of 1.63 while the jockey has a 17% strike rate from 23 rides and an A/E of 1.62. Recent form of 72-871 includes that latest success, and from draw 5 he is likely to be held up and produce his effort late. The selection steps up in class but brings course-winning form and track-specific positives for the Flint yard.
Spirit Of The Bay KTB Fit 57/100
Spirit Of The Bay is a modest performer who has won three times at this track from seven runs and also has five wins from 22 starts at this trip. Recent form has been patchy but he did land a similar race here last time and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition. Trainer and jockey both have solid 17% strike rates at Chepstow, the yard recording an A/E of 1.63 from 66 runs. He acts on good to firm, with two wins from 13 starts and five places, and from the inside draw he is another who is usually held up and produces his effort late. The 8-year-old steps up in class but his course record of three wins from seven starts makes him a major player.
Revelance KTB Fit 57/100
Revelance is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, winning once from six attempts. He has won on good to firm ground from just two starts on it and the yard posts a solid 23 percent strike rate at Chepstow from 257 runs with an A/E of 1.11. The jockey records an 11 percent strike rate here from 144 rides while the horse makes his first visit to the track from draw 7. Usually settling in midfield, he drops in class having shown form of 239-76 and could be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race.
Nakaaha KTB Fit 54/100
Nakaaha is a fair performer who has won three times over today's trip from 11 attempts. She has shown mixed form this year with a win on good to firm ground but has been below that level on her last two starts. First time headgear is now tried on her first visit to Chepstow from draw 6. The Grace Harris yard has a 9% strike rate at the track from 433 runs with an A/E of 0.85, while David Egan brings an 18% strike rate from 39 rides and an A/E of 0.99. Usually held up, she could improve with the new headgear.
The rest of the field
Talis EvolvereKTB Fit 53/100
Talis Evolvere is a fair performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been inconsistent overall with a recent record of 808276. He steps up in trip to 1m having won five times at the distance from 30 starts and has been competitive on good to firm ground without winning. The trainer has a 13% strike rate from 301 runs at Chepstow while the jockey is 0-6 at the track and this is the horse's first run here.
WindbreakerKTB Fit 50/100
Windbreaker is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning. Drops back to 1m having been placed at the trip before, though the switch from 1m2f asks a fresh question and first-time headgear is now applied. Haggas has a solid 25% strike rate at Chepstow while Davies is operating at 19%. The 3-year-old has course form, having finished third here on his only previous visit.
Serenity BlueKTB Fit 49/100
Serenity Blue is a fair performer on the balance of its ratings and race history. It has won twice from four runs on good to firm ground and now tries 1m for the first time after its last run over 1m2f. First-time headgear is fitted on its first visit to Chepstow where the trainer has only one run and the jockey holds a 10% strike rate from 31 rides.
KTB verdict
Auburn Avenue is the KTB Selection. He brings a course win on his only previous visit to Chepstow, handles the ground, and represents a yard and jockey combination with strong track records. The steadily-run race should suit his held-up style, and while he steps up in class he has the best KTB Fit score in the field. Main dangers are Spirit Of The Bay, who has a fine course record and comes off a recent course win with first-time headgear, and Revelance, who drops in class and brings fair placed form at the trip.
KTB Selection Auburn Avenue
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 6 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Auburn Avenue | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Spirit Of The Bay | 9/1 | 7Bet |
| Revelance | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Nakaaha | 15/2 | 7Bet |
| Talis Evolvere | 11/2 | William Hill |
| Windbreaker | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Serenity Blue | 11/4 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 7:05 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Chepstow?
Spirit Of The Bay has won three times at this track from seven runs.
How many of the field are making their first visit to Chepstow?
Revelance, Nakaaha, Talis Evolvere and Serenity Blue have no course form on record.
Which runners are trying first-time headgear?
Spirit Of The Bay, Nakaaha, Windbreaker and Serenity Blue are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Who holds the best trainer strike rate at the track among the principals?
Ralph Beckett has a 23% strike rate at Chepstow from 257 runs with an A/E of 1.11.
Which horse is stepping up in trip to 1m for the first time?
Auburn Avenue steps up to 1m for the first time today, as does Serenity Blue.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies