7:40 Chepstow
A Class 5 handicap over 7f at Chepstow on good to firm ground brings together a field of seven three-year-olds, several of whom are modest performers looking to build on recent efforts. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Clementines Star heading the numbers on the back of progressive form. Chepstow's track characteristics and the prevailing ground look set to play to the strengths of certain runners while exposing others.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader scenario with high confidence, as one clear front-runner is expected to get an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. Clementines Star is likely to take up that role from draw 4, given her front-running tendencies. The key question is whether any of the held-up types, of which there are several, can close the gap effectively on this stiff track or if the leader will have things their own way throughout.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Clementines Star KTB Selection62/100Modest performer who has improved with every run and arrives in career-best form after a narrow win at this trip last time.
- 2Sydney Rock60/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on his last two starts after a break, finishing seventh of 12 at Kempton and then sixth of 10 at Windsor.
- 3Espona Bay55/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning often.
- 4Jackabi55/100Modest performer who won over this trip on good to firm here on his only previous visit to Chepstow.
- 5Sup Of Red45/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency this year but has failed to win in 13 starts.
- 6Fullstop43/100Limited performer who has been well held in all three runs this season and looks no better than modest on recent form.
- 7Grand Vista38/100Limited on ability and has only shown modest form in seven runs to date.
The contenders
Clementines Star KTB Fit 62/100
Clementines Star is a modest performer who has improved with every run and arrives in career-best form after a narrow win at this trip last time. Chepstow clearly suits as she showed when finishing third here on her penultimate start, while the good-to-firm ground is another plus having won her only previous run on it. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at the track, with the trainer operating at a 16% strike rate and the jockey at 13%. Her front-running style aligns perfectly with the expected lone leader pace shape, allowing her to dictate terms from draw 4. Recent form figures of 33-321 underline her upward trajectory, and she holds the highest KTB Fit rating of 62.
Sydney Rock KTB Fit 60/100
Sydney Rock is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his last two starts after a break, finishing seventh of 12 at Kempton and then sixth of 10 at Windsor. He drops back to 7f today having been placed in all three runs at the trip without winning. The trainer has only four runs at Chepstow so the sample is too small to judge, while the jockey holds an 11 percent strike rate from 144 rides here. Usually held up, he will need the race to fall right given the uncontested lead likely to be taken by the selection. With a KTB Fit of 60 he is the closest rated rival and remains competitive on his placed efforts at this distance.
Espona Bay KTB Fit 55/100
Espona Bay is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning often. He steps up from 6f to a trip he has won over before, which looks a positive, though he has only managed a placed effort from three runs on good to firm. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Chepstow is offset by the jockey's strong 20% record at the track from a small sample. Dropping in class is another point in his favour and his held-up run style means he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time. His KTB Fit stands at 55 and recent form of 431335 reflects steady rather than spectacular progress.
Jackabi KTB Fit 55/100
Jackabi is a modest performer who won over this trip on good to firm here on his only previous visit to Chepstow. He has shown that form twice this year, including a C&D success last time, though the latest win came in a weaker race than this. First-time headgear is now fitted while both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track. His held-up style will see him biding his time behind the expected leader, and the course-and-distance victory gives him a clear foothold in the race. With a KTB Fit of 55 he cannot be dismissed, particularly as the good-to-firm ground matches the conditions of his Chepstow win.
The rest of the field
Sup Of RedKTB Fit 45/100
Sup Of Red is a modest performer who has shown some consistency this year but has failed to win in 13 starts. The trainer has a solid 10% strike-rate at Chepstow from a big sample while the jockey fares even better with an 18% record from 39 rides, yet he remains unproven on good to firm and is making his first appearance at the track while stepping up in class.
FullstopKTB Fit 43/100
Fullstop is a limited performer who has been well held in all three runs this season and looks no better than modest on recent form. First-time headgear is tried today while the trip suits having placed once over it without winning, though both trainer and jockey records at the track are mixed and he is unproven on good to firm while stepping up in class.
Grand VistaKTB Fit 38/100
Grand Vista is limited on ability and has only shown modest form in seven runs to date. Placed once over today's trip and finished a respectable third here on his only previous visit to Chepstow, though first-time headgear is now needed to spark improvement while stepping up in class, with the trainer holding a solid record at the venue.
KTB verdict
Clementines Star stands out as the KTB Selection. She has improved with every run, is in career-best form, and her front-running style is ideally suited to the expected lone-leader pace shape on good-to-firm ground that she handles well. Chepstow clearly brings out the best in her, as evidenced by her third here two starts back, and the combination of trainer and jockey records at the track adds further confidence. The main dangers are Sydney Rock, who drops back to a trip where he has been placed in all three starts, and Espona Bay, who steps up to a distance he has won over before, while Jackabi's course-and-distance record cannot be ignored despite the tougher company.
KTB Selection Clementines Star
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 6 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Clementines Star | 2/1 | Bet365 |
| Sydney Rock | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Espona Bay | 6/1 | William Hill |
| Jackabi | 5/1 | William Hill |
| Sup Of Red | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Fullstop | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Grand Vista | 6/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 7:40 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Clementines Star, whose front-running style and the high-confidence lone leader pace shape point to her making the running.
How many of the field are stepping up in class?
Three horses are stepping up in class: Jackabi, Sup Of Red and Fullstop, along with Grand Vista.
Which runner has course-and-distance form at Chepstow?
Jackabi won over this trip on good to firm here on his only previous visit, and Grand Vista has finished third here once.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Chepstow in this race?
Christian Howarth holds a 20% strike rate at Chepstow from 5 rides, while Ray Dawson also shows 20% from 64 rides.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Jackabi, Fullstop and Grand Vista are all fitted with first-time headgear.
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