7:27 Ballinrobe
The 7:27 Ballinrobe Burleigh Accountancy Handicap Hurdle is a competitive 3m1f194y contest on good ground featuring an eight-runner field where stamina will be at a premium. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with My Trump Card heading the ratings on 61 despite recent modest form, followed by Dorans Law on 57, Run For The Border on 54 and Strange Currency on 53. Several runners step up markedly in trip, which adds an extra layer of uncertainty to a race that already looks shaped by an uncontested lead.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner facing little pressure and likely setting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Down Around is the only horse with a front-running style and is expected to take up that role from the outset. The remaining seven runners are all held-up types who produce their efforts late, so the race is likely to develop into a test of whether any of them can bridge the gap to the leader in the straight. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will hand the advantage to the pacesetter or if one of the patient runners can produce the necessary stamina and finishing kick.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1My Trump Card KTB Selection61/100Smart performer who has been out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 2Dorans Law57/100Smart performer who has won at this track and at today's trip.
- 3Run For The Border54/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with placed efforts at this track and on good ground.
- 4Strange Currency53/100Smart performer who has shown ability in a light career to date.
- 5Down Around51/100Useful performer who has placed on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe and arrives with the yard's solid 14% strike-rate here behind him.
- 6Killowen House51/100Smart performer with a solid recent record including a win and placed efforts that fit this level.
- 7Ladiam46/100Ladiam is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at Ballinrobe without winning in nine runs here.
- 8Lord Ffrench46/100Lord Ffrench is a smart performer on his best days yet has been well below that level in recent starts and showed little spark when seventh over course and dist…
The contenders
My Trump Card KTB Fit 61/100
My Trump Card is a smart performer who has been out of form this year with a string of modest efforts including his most recent fifth at this trip. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him while his only run on good ground produced no encouragement. The trainer operates with an 8% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 134 runs and the jockey has a 13% strike rate from 32 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find improvement from the rear in a race where the leader is likely to have things his own way out front.
Dorans Law KTB Fit 57/100
Dorans Law is a smart performer who has won at this track and at today's trip. His recent form is a bit patchy but he did finish a clear second at Down Royal last time and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition that could help him bounce back. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 316 runs with a fair A/E while the jockey's record is too limited to judge from only two rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has the course-winning experience and trip suitability to play a significant role if the headgear has the desired effect.
Run For The Border KTB Fit 54/100
Run For The Border is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with placed efforts at this track and on good ground. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him as he bids to prove his stamina over the longer distance. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 340 runs and the jockey has a 14% strike rate from 72 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has already shown his liking for the venue with a second on one of his two visits and could be well suited if the race falls apart up front.
Strange Currency KTB Fit 53/100
Strange Currency is a smart performer who has shown ability in a light career to date. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him as he attempts to prove his stamina at this new distance. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 52 runs while the jockey fares better with a 16% strike rate from 43 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he remains relatively unexposed and could improve for the greater test if his previous promise translates to the longer trip.
The rest of the field
Down AroundKTB Fit 51/100
Down Around is a useful performer who has placed on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe and arrives with the yard's solid 14% strike-rate here behind him. Recent form has been patchy and he is now 0-13 on good ground, though the first-time headgear may sharpen him up, while the trip is a fresh question today. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is set to take the uncontested lead according to the race shape.
Killowen HouseKTB Fit 51/100
Killowen House is a smart performer with a solid recent record including a win and placed efforts that fit this level. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of his stamina. The trainer has a modest 4% strike rate here from 113 runs while the claiming jockey has had too few rides at the track to judge.
LadiamKTB Fit 46/100
Ladiam is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at Ballinrobe without winning in nine runs here. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m4f, though he has been placed once in two starts at this distance. The first-time headgear is an unknown on a horse whose trainer has a solid 10% strike rate at the track while the jockey's 4% record from 24 rides is more modest.
Lord FfrenchKTB Fit 46/100
Lord Ffrench is a smart performer on his best days yet has been well below that level in recent starts and showed little spark when seventh over course and distance on his only previous visit here. The yard has a modest 2% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 45 runs while Phillip Enright is 4% from 275 rides at the track. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up markedly in trip on good ground where he has one win and two places from six starts.
KTB verdict
My Trump Card is the KTB Selection. Despite a string of modest efforts this year he remains a smart performer on his day and the step up in trip could unlock further improvement while the jockey's record at the track offers some encouragement. He will need to come from the rear in a race where the leader may not come back, but his class gives him the best chance if he can produce a renewed effort. The main dangers are Dorans Law, who has course and trip form plus the first-time headgear, and Run For The Border, whose consistent placed efforts at the track make him a solid contender if he stays the longer distance. Strange Currency cannot be entirely ruled out either if the trip brings about the necessary progress.
KTB Selection My Trump Card
This is the narrative read of the 7:27 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Down Around is the only front-runner in the field and is set to take the lone leader role according to the pace shape.
How many of the runners are stepping up markedly in trip?
Six of the eight runners are stepping up markedly in trip today.
Which horse has course and distance form at Ballinrobe?
Lord Ffrench showed little spark when seventh over course and distance on his only previous visit here.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Dorans Law, Down Around, Ladiam and Lord Ffrench are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Ballinrobe in this race?
Gordon Elliott has a 14% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 459 runs with Down Around.
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