7:30 Ayr
A Class 6 handicap over 6f at Ayr on good ground brings together a field of 13 modest performers where the KTB Fit ratings range from 62 down to 41. The numbers point to a contest likely to be decided by who can make the best use of an uncontested lead and which of the held-up types can close effectively. Mr Cool heads the KTB Fit scores as the selection, with several others showing placed form at the track and trip but carrying questions over current sharpness or trip suitability.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one horse – most likely Kelpie Grey from his front-running style – getting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in late. The bulk of the field, including the selection Mr Cool and the other four principals, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort in the final furlong or so. The key question is whether anything can get to the leader in the closing stages or if the uncontested advantage will prove decisive in a race where most runners prefer to come from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mr Cool KTB Selection62/100Mr Cool is a modest performer who has shown enough consistency this year with a string of placed efforts and a recent win.
- 2Kelpie Grey57/100Modest performer who has won twice at Ayr from 17 runs but is 0-9 at this trip and has been out of form for some time.
- 3Thunderstorm Katie56/100Modest performer who has won twice at Ayr from eight runs and looks suited by good ground having won three times from 12 starts on it.
- 4Whiskey Kisses54/100Modest performer who has shown her best form here at Ayr, finishing placed on two of her four visits.
- 5Ukiyo48/100Limited performer who has been out of form for a while with a string of modest efforts.
- 6Annie Edson Taylor47/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and is now tried in first-time headgear.
- 7Taaklam45/100Modest performer who has shown consistency at a low level with three placed efforts from eight starts.
- 8Impressor44/100Impressor is a modest 9-year-old who has been placed on his last two visits to Ayr and remains competitive on good ground.
- 9Highfield Sunshine44/100Limited horse who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark on her last three starts.
- 10Elemma44/100Modest performer who has shown little in four runs to date and was well held when last seen.
- 11Lanarra44/100Lanarra is a limited performer who has been placed on three of her four runs at Ayr without winning.
- 12Doon The Glen41/100Doon The Glen is a limited performer who has been a regular at Ayr without winning in seven runs here, though he has placed once.
- 13Masai Angel41/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts at this trip, finishing no better than fourth.
The contenders
Mr Cool KTB Fit 62/100
Mr Cool is a modest performer who has shown enough consistency this year with a string of placed efforts and a recent win. He has already won over this trip and at this track from four runs here while handling good ground well enough. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Ayr. From a middle draw he will be held up and produce his effort late, a run-style that fits the shape of the race so long as the leader does not get too far clear. His recent form of 735231 underlines his reliability at this level and he looks to have the best chance in a race where many have something to prove.
Kelpie Grey KTB Fit 57/100
Kelpie Grey is a modest performer who has won twice at Ayr from 17 runs but is 0-9 at this trip and has been out of form for some time. Recent efforts have been poor and the yard's solid record at the track is not currently translating into winners. Paul Mulrennan knows the place well but this one needs to show more. His front-running style gives him every chance of securing the lone lead in a race where little is expected to press him, which could make him dangerous if he can rediscover some spark on good ground where he has been placed five times from 11 starts.
Thunderstorm Katie KTB Fit 56/100
Thunderstorm Katie is a modest performer who has won twice at Ayr from eight runs and looks suited by good ground having won three times from 12 starts on it. She steps up to 6f today having last run over 5f yet holds a solid record at this trip with two wins from 17 attempts. The yard posts an 11% strike-rate here from a huge sample while the jockey is operating close to expectations from her own smaller number of rides. Usually held up, she will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time, and her dropping in class could help her competitiveness from a wide draw.
Whiskey Kisses KTB Fit 54/100
Whiskey Kisses is a modest performer who has shown her best form here at Ayr, finishing placed on two of her four visits. She has been competitive on good ground and at this trip without winning either, though her recent form has been patchy. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track. Held up in the rear, her run-style means she will need the race to fall right if the leader is allowed an easy time up front. At three she remains open to some improvement but will need to sharpen up on her 460933 form to figure prominently.
Ukiyo KTB Fit 48/100
Ukiyo is a limited performer who has been out of form for a while with a string of modest efforts. He drops back to 6f where he has won in the past though his recent efforts at that trip have been nothing to shout about. The jockey has a solid 17% strike rate at Ayr but the trainer has no recorded runners here. Usually held up, he will be among those trying to close late in a race with a clear leader likely to set a steady gallop. His placed efforts on good ground offer some hope but overall he looks to have plenty to find on these terms.
The rest of the field
Annie Edson TaylorKTB Fit 47/100
Annie Edson Taylor is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and is now tried in first-time headgear. She has shown some ability at this trip and on good ground, plus she has already placed over course and distance, though the yard's modest record here tempers expectations.
TaaklamKTB Fit 45/100
Taaklam is a modest performer who has shown consistency at a low level with three placed efforts from eight starts. He steps up to 6f today having been placed at the trip before without winning and acts on good ground even if winless in two tries. The trainer has only four runs at Ayr so far while the jockey posts a solid 14 percent strike rate here.
ImpressorKTB Fit 44/100
Impressor is a modest 9-year-old who has been placed on his last two visits to Ayr and remains competitive on good ground. He has won twice at this trip though the recent form of 400636 shows he is not finding the frame often these days. First-time headgear is now applied while both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at the track.
Highfield SunshineKTB Fit 44/100
Highfield Sunshine is a limited horse who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark on her last three starts. She is 0-3 at this trip and has never won on good ground despite placing a few times. Trainer and jockey both have established records at Ayr but this one arrives with plenty to prove.
ElemmaKTB Fit 44/100
Elemma is a modest performer who has shown little in four runs to date and was well held when last seen. She drops back to 6f today having failed to make an impact at the trip on both previous attempts. The yard has a poor recent record at Ayr but the jockey knows the track well.
LanarraKTB Fit 44/100
Lanarra is a limited performer who has been placed on three of her four runs at Ayr without winning. She has shown consistent form this year with a win and three placings from her last five starts, including a success at this trip. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track.
Doon The GlenKTB Fit 41/100
Doon The Glen is a limited performer who has been a regular at Ayr without winning in seven runs here, though he has placed once. He steps up from 5f to 6f today where he has three wins from 22 starts, and first-time headgear is now applied after a mixed recent form of 834718. The yard holds an 11% strike rate at the track from a large sample while the jockey is operating at 8%.
Masai AngelKTB Fit 41/100
Masai Angel is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts at this trip, finishing no better than fourth. The yard has failed to strike at Ayr from eight runners and this one lacks the scope of some of the others in the field. Jockey Jack Garritty brings solid course experience but that may not be enough to lift a horse of this level.
KTB verdict
Mr Cool looks the pick in a race full of modest types where the uncontested lead could make things tricky for those coming from behind. He has shown consistent placed form this year topped by a recent win, has already scored at Ayr over this trip, and handles good ground. The Johnston yard and Oliver Stammers both have solid records at the track which adds to his appeal from a workable draw. His main dangers are likely to be Kelpie Grey if he can make the most of the lone lead, and Thunderstorm Katie who has a good record at the track and is dropping in class, though both have questions to answer on current form. The remainder of the field largely consists of horses with placed efforts at Ayr but who have been patchy or are out of form.
KTB Selection Mr Cool
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to get the uncontested lead?
Kelpie Grey, whose front-running style gives him every chance of securing the lone leader advantage in a race where little is expected to press him.
How many wins has Mr Cool recorded at Ayr?
One win from four runs at the track.
What is Thunderstorm Katie's record at this trip?
Two wins from 17 attempts at 6f.
Which runners are being fitted with first-time headgear?
Annie Edson Taylor, Impressor and Doon The Glen.
How many placed efforts has Whiskey Kisses recorded at Ayr?
Two placed efforts from four visits to the track.
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