8:00 Ayr
This Class 5 handicap over 7f50y at Ayr on good ground features a field of 13 modest performers, several of whom arrive in consistent form without recent victories. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Stoic Poet heading the list on 59, closely followed by Black Storm and Milford Grange on 57. First-time headgear features on four runners, while the class moves are mixed with several dropping in grade and a couple stepping up.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, including Sanafi Zabeel and Tap Dancer. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB rankings, are hold-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace. This shape raises the possibility of the leaders going too hard and the race collapsing late, which would play into the hands of those racing towards the rear.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Stoic Poet KTB Selection59/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency this year without winning.
- 2Black Storm57/100Modest performer who has been consistent without winning of late, finishing in the first five on all five starts this year.
- 3Milford Grange57/100Modest performer who has been placed on three of his last six starts, including a second over this trip and a second here at Ayr.
- 4Ubetterseethis55/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough on good ground, placing three times from five starts without winning.
- 5Runninsonofagun53/100Modest performer who has won once from six starts at Ayr and arrives in decent nick judged on his recent form figures.
- 6Highfield Viking52/100Modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track from four runs.
- 7Sanafi Zabeel52/100Modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but finished only ninth on his sole visit to Ayr.
- 8Yaaser51/100Yaaser is a limited handicapper who has run well at this track on several occasions, winning twice from 13 starts.
- 9Circle Of Trust48/100Modest performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from just one visit.
- 10Phoenix Of Dreams45/100Modest performer who has won over this trip but has been hit and miss this year.
- 11Yy Spirit45/100Modest performer who has won once in six starts but has been well below that level on both outings this year.
- 12Tap Dancer43/100Limited performer who has run six times here without winning yet has placed once and shown enough to stay competitive.
- 13Supreme Clarets40/100Modest performer who has been running to a similar level for most of this year.
The contenders
Stoic Poet KTB Fit 59/100
Stoic Poet is a modest performer who has shown some consistency this year without winning. He has placed twice from two starts at Ayr and is 2-4 at today's trip, though both runs on good ground have been poor. First-time headgear is now added and the yard has a solid record at the track. The trainer posts an 11% strike rate at Ayr from 895 runs with an A/E of 0.97, while the jockey is 17% from six rides here with an A/E of 1.27. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 9 and arrives off recent form figures of 58-427. As the KTB Selection he holds the strongest claims on the numbers.
Black Storm KTB Fit 57/100
Black Storm is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning of late, finishing in the first five on all five starts this year. He has placed both here and on good ground, and the return to this trip is in his favour having won over it before. First-time headgear is now added. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 0.94 from 219 runs, while the jockey is 12% from 139 rides here with an A/E of 1.07. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 7 and comes into the race off form figures of -44253. The combination of a return to a winning trip and the first-time headgear could help him build on his recent placed efforts.
Milford Grange KTB Fit 57/100
Milford Grange is a modest performer who has been placed on three of his last six starts, including a second over this trip and a second here at Ayr. The yard and jockey both have solid records at the track with strike rates around 11-12%. Trip seems to suit but the going remains an unknown with only seven runs on the board. The trainer is 11% at Ayr with an A/E of 1.01 from 119 runs, while the jockey is 12% from 153 rides here with an A/E of 1.06. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 4 and arrives with form figures of 722268. Dropping in class could also work in his favour.
Ubetterseethis KTB Fit 55/100
Ubetterseethis is a modest performer who has been consistent enough on good ground, placing three times from five starts without winning. He has won over today's trip but looks exposed after 15 runs and was well held when seventh on his only visit to Ayr. Trainer and jockey both operate at an 11% strike rate here. The trainer posts an 11% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.12 from 18 runs, while the jockey is 11% from 205 rides here with an A/E of 0.85. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 2 and comes into the race off form figures of 23-304. Dropping in class may help him find a bit more.
Runninsonofagun KTB Fit 53/100
Runninsonofagun is a modest performer who has won once from six starts at Ayr and arrives in decent nick judged on his recent form figures. He drops back to 7f today having last run over a mile and he is 1 from 4 at the trip without winning. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 12% strike rate here. The trainer is 12% at Ayr with an A/E of 0.85 from 129 runs, while the jockey is 12% from 147 rides here with an A/E of 0.87. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 10 and arrives with form figures of 835132. Stepping up in class asks a question but his course record adds interest.
The rest of the field
Highfield VikingKTB Fit 52/100
Highfield Viking is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track from four runs. Recent form has been patchy and he now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer's modest record here is offset by the jockey's solid 14% strike rate from a big sample at Ayr.
Sanafi ZabeelKTB Fit 52/100
Sanafi Zabeel is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but finished only ninth on his sole visit to Ayr. He drops back in trip today having last run over a mile and a quarter, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track though the small sample on this going leaves that side of things unknown.
YaaserKTB Fit 51/100
Yaaser is a limited handicapper who has run well at this track on several occasions, winning twice from 13 starts. He has dropped back to a trip he has won at four times from 33 attempts, though his recent form of 759533 suggests he is not at his peak right now. The trainer has an 11% strike rate from 2843 runs at Ayr while the jockey is operating at 12% from 73 rides here.
Circle Of TrustKTB Fit 48/100
Circle Of Trust is a modest performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from just one visit. Recent form has been patchy but the first-time headgear could sharpen him up. Trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records at Ayr.
Phoenix Of DreamsKTB Fit 45/100
Phoenix Of Dreams is a modest performer who has won over this trip but has been hit and miss this year. He finished fourth of six on his only visit to Ayr and has shown only placed form on good ground from limited attempts. First-time headgear is now tried while the Quinn yard and Costello both have modest records at the track.
Yy SpiritKTB Fit 45/100
Yy Spirit is a modest performer who has won once in six starts but has been well below that level on both outings this year. He steps up to 7f for the first time having failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at the trip. Trainer has a 0% strike rate from 44 runs at Ayr while the 7lb claimer has had too few rides here to judge.
Tap DancerKTB Fit 43/100
Tap Dancer is a limited performer who has run six times here without winning yet has placed once and shown enough to stay competitive. He steps up in trip today having been placed once in three tries at this distance which could suit. Trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Ayr.
Supreme ClaretsKTB Fit 40/100
Supreme Clarets is a modest performer who has been running to a similar level for most of this year. He has placed on good ground and at this trip without winning, though the yard is currently 0-8 at Ayr and the 3lb claimer is 0-22 here. First visit to the track leaves that side of things unknown.
KTB verdict
Stoic Poet heads the KTB Fit ratings and is taken as the selection. He has shown consistency this year, is proven at the trip, and has already placed twice at Ayr from just two visits. The addition of first-time headgear could sharpen him further, and the yard's solid record at the track adds to his claims in a race where the strong pace may suit his hold-up style. Main dangers include Black Storm, who is in similar consistent form and also tries headgear, along with Milford Grange, who has strong recent placed form at the trip and track. Ubetterseethis and Runninsonofagun round out the principals and cannot be ruled out given their own course and trip credentials.
KTB Selection Stoic Poet
This is the narrative read of the 8:00 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which runners are trying first-time headgear?
Stoic Poet, Black Storm, Highfield Viking, Circle Of Trust and Phoenix Of Dreams are all fitted with first-time headgear.
How many front-runners are in the field and who are they?
There are two or more habitual front-runners, specifically Sanafi Zabeel and Tap Dancer.
Which horses are dropping in class for this race?
Milford Grange, Ubetterseethis and Supreme Clarets are dropping in class.
Who has the strongest course record among the principals?
Runninsonofagun has won once from six starts at Ayr.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Ayr in this field?
Jim Goldie has a 17% strike rate at Ayr from 1292 runs when teaming up with Paul Mulrennan on Sanafi Zabeel.
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