7:30 Roscommon
The 7:30 Roscommon is a 19-runner Kepak Handicap Steeplechase over 2m5f141y on good ground. A competitive field mixes fair and useful performers, several of whom arrive in ordinary recent form yet bring placed efforts or recent wins at similar trips. The KTB Fit ratings point to a tight contest at the top, headed by the selection on 62, with four others clustered between 60 and 54.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is that of a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Most of the field, including the top five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, while Dunany Point is the one noted as tending to make the running or race on the pace. The key question is whether the clear front-runner can dictate matters throughout or if the pack of late runners can bridge the gap on this stiff track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ladies Well KTB Selection62/100Fair performer who showed improved form when winning at this trip on good ground last time but had previously been well held over C&D.
- 2Gaoithe Glory60/100Useful performer who has not really kicked on since a promising start and arrives in ordinary form after two modest runs this season.
- 3Jouster56/100Jouster is a useful performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing in the frame on three of his last four starts.
- 4Charlie's Gift56/100Fair performer who has struggled since finishing second in a handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse last spring.
- 5Dunany Point54/100Fair handicapper who has shown little spark in three runs this year and now tries a first-time hood.
- 6Run For The Border52/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with placed efforts on his last two starts.
- 7King's Son51/100Fair performer who has shown some spark on his last three starts without looking like winning.
- 8Island McCoo50/100Island McCoo is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent placed form on good ground, including a third here at Roscommon.
- 9Tantrum Boy50/100Tantrum Boy is a fair performer who has shown his best form when finishing fourth on his most recent start.
- 10Not So Serious50/100Fair performer who showed very little on his first four starts this year before snapping a long losing run with a win at this trip last time.
- 11Another Challenge49/100Fair performer who ran creditably when second on his penultimate start before a lesser effort last time.
- 12Full Noise46/100Useful performer who has shown enough in recent starts to suggest he can be competitive off this mark.
- 13Rideau Canal45/100Fair performer who has won over this trip but looks vulnerable on recent form of 51P-0P.
- 14Doyen Wolf41/100Doyen Wolf is a fair performer who showed a bit more spark when third on his return from a break.
- 15Johnny M41/100Modest performer who has struggled badly of late with three poor efforts this year after a lengthy absence.
- 16Max Time40/100Modest performer with a poor recent record and no win in 37 starts.
- 17Backinabit40/100Fair performer who showed a bit more when winning a handicap at Cork last month but ran no sort of race at Limerick since.
- 18Firstupbestdressed38/100Firstupbestdressed is a fair sort who has shown little since two unplaced efforts over hurdles in the spring.
- 19Ballyredinkingston35/100Fair performer who has failed to place in six starts this year and was well held in both recent runs.
The contenders
Ladies Well KTB Fit 62/100
Ladies Well is a fair performer who showed improved form when winning at this trip on good ground last time but had previously been well held over C&D. She drops back from 2m7f today which looks a sensible move given two prior runs at this distance without success. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is ridden by Darragh O'Keeffe who holds a 12% strike rate at Roscommon from 93 rides with an A/E of 0.99. Trainer Andrew Slattery also has a 12% strike rate at the track from 152 runs with an A/E of 1.23. She has one win from five starts on good ground with two placed efforts, though her sole previous run here resulted in a tenth-place finish.
Gaoithe Glory KTB Fit 60/100
Gaoithe Glory is a useful performer who has not really kicked on since a promising start and arrives in ordinary form after two modest runs this season. Only one previous try here produced a well-beaten ninth, while three runs on good ground have also failed to deliver a win or a place. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up in trip for the first time. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is trained by E McNamara who has an 8% strike rate at Roscommon from 111 runs with an A/E of 1.00. Jockey G B Noonan holds a 9% strike rate at the course from 22 rides with an A/E of 1.3.
Jouster KTB Fit 56/100
Jouster is a useful performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing in the frame on three of his last four starts. He has shown he can handle this track and good ground, and dropping back to a trip he has won over looks a plus, though the first-time headgear is an unknown. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he was fourth on his only previous run here. Trainer Paul W Flynn has a 7% strike rate at Roscommon from 191 runs with an A/E of 0.69, offset by jockey Josh Williamson's 11% strike rate at the course from nine rides with an A/E of 0.99. He has been placed once from three starts on good ground.
Charlie's Gift KTB Fit 56/100
Charlie's Gift is a fair performer who has struggled since finishing second in a handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse last spring. Recent form has been poor with three non-completions and he drops back in trip today having been well held over three miles last time. Usually held up, though with medium confidence in that assessment, he has been placed once from three starts on good ground. Trainer John M Burke has a 5% strike rate at Roscommon from 19 runs with an A/E of 0.98. He has no course form on record.
Dunany Point KTB Fit 54/100
Dunany Point is a fair handicapper who has shown little spark in three runs this year and now tries a first-time hood. He steps up markedly in trip having been well held over much shorter last time, which asks a fresh question. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he has one win from nine starts on good ground with four placed efforts. Trainer Conor David Maxwell holds a 14% strike rate at Roscommon from 14 runs with an A/E of 1.4, while the pair's combined record is 9% from 34 runs with an A/E of 1.15. Jockey Kieren Buckley has a 5% strike rate at the track from 21 rides with an A/E of 0.5. He has no course form on record.
The rest of the field
Run For The BorderKTB Fit 52/100
Run For The Border is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with placed efforts on his last two starts. He has placed at today's trip and on good ground though is yet to win at either. Usually held up, the trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Roscommon from 103 runs with an A/E of 0.41 offers little encouragement.
King's SonKTB Fit 51/100
King's Son is a fair performer who has shown some spark on his last three starts without looking like winning. First-time headgear is now tried as he steps up markedly in trip having been campaigned over much shorter. Usually held up, the trainer has no recorded runners at Roscommon while jockey J J Slevin has a 15% strike rate from 66 rides here with an A/E of 1.36. He has been placed once from three starts on good ground.
Island McCooKTB Fit 50/100
Island McCoo is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent placed form on good ground, including a third here at Roscommon. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance, which looks a positive on his recent efforts around 2m4f. First-time headgear is now fitted while the yard has yet to strike at this track from six runners. Usually held up, he has been placed three times from nine starts on good ground.
Tantrum BoyKTB Fit 50/100
Tantrum Boy is a fair performer who has shown his best form when finishing fourth on his most recent start. He has solid course connections through his trainer who holds a 14% strike rate from 28 runs here with an A/E of 1.64. The trip looks an open question after one unsuccessful attempt at this distance and the small overall sample makes the going hard to pin down. Usually held up, he has had two runs on good ground without a win or place.
Not So SeriousKTB Fit 50/100
Not So Serious is a fair performer who showed very little on his first four starts this year before snapping a long losing run with a win at this trip last time. He handles good ground and has won at today's distance, though the trainer's record at Roscommon is modest with a 0% strike rate from nine runs. Usually held up, this is his course debut.
Another ChallengeKTB Fit 49/100
Another Challenge is a fair performer who ran creditably when second on his penultimate start before a lesser effort last time. He drops back in trip today having never tried this exact distance, which poses a fresh question, while his sole run on good ground brought no win or place. Usually held up, the trainer holds a 7% strike rate from 46 runs here with an A/E of 0.72 and the jockey an 8% strike rate from 166 rides with an A/E of 0.99.
Full NoiseKTB Fit 46/100
Full Noise is a useful performer who has shown enough in recent starts to suggest he can be competitive off this mark. He steps up in trip today having been placed once over this distance without winning, while the first-time headgear is an unknown that could help or hinder. The trainer has only a small sample at Roscommon with a 0% strike rate from three runs and the horse remains unproven on good ground.
Rideau CanalKTB Fit 45/100
Rideau Canal is a fair performer who has won over this trip but looks vulnerable on recent form of 51P-0P. He has never placed from seven runs on good ground and was pulled up on his only visit to Roscommon. Usually held up, the trainer's modest 2% strike rate at the track from 53 runs with an A/E of 0.26 adds little encouragement though first-time headgear is at least a new factor.
Doyen WolfKTB Fit 41/100
Doyen Wolf is a fair performer who showed a bit more spark when third on his return from a break. He steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact in his one previous attempt at this distance. Usually held up, the trainer has a 0% strike rate from 14 runs at Roscommon. He has been placed once from one start on good ground.
Johnny MKTB Fit 41/100
Johnny M is a modest performer who has struggled badly of late with three poor efforts this year after a lengthy absence. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried while wearing headgear for the first time. Typically settling in midfield, the trainer holds an 8% strike rate from 111 runs at Roscommon. He has been placed once from four starts on good ground.
Max TimeKTB Fit 40/100
Max Time is a modest performer with a poor recent record and no win in 37 starts. He has failed to complete or place in three runs at this track and is also 0-10 on good ground. Typically settling in midfield, first-time headgear is tried as he steps up in trip today.
BackinabitKTB Fit 40/100
Backinabit is a fair performer who showed a bit more when winning a handicap at Cork last month but ran no sort of race at Limerick since. He steps up markedly in trip today for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. Usually held up, the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track from 207 runs with an A/E of 0.48 and the first-time headgear both add further unknowns. He has one win from three starts on good ground with one placed effort and was fourth on his only previous run here.
FirstupbestdressedKTB Fit 38/100
Firstupbestdressed is a fair sort who has shown little since two unplaced efforts over hurdles in the spring. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at this distance, while his record on good ground reads no win or place from seven starts. Usually held up, first-time headgear is now fitted and the trainer has only three runs at the track so the sample is too small to judge.
BallyredinkingstonKTB Fit 35/100
Ballyredinkingston is a fair performer who has failed to place in six starts this year and was well held in both recent runs. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Roscommon from 103 runs with an A/E of 0.41 offers little encouragement. Usually held up, he drops back in trip today as a fresh question and has shown no spark on good ground in four attempts.
KTB verdict
Ladies Well is the KTB Selection. A fair performer who showed improved form when winning at this trip on good ground last time, she drops back from 2m7f in what looks a sensible move after two prior runs at this distance without success. Trainer and jockey both have solid 12% strike rates at Roscommon from decent sample sizes, and her held-up style should see her delivered late against a lone leader. Main dangers are headed by Gaoithe Glory, who tries first-time headgear and a longer trip in ordinary form, while Jouster brings consistency, course placings and a drop to a winning distance despite the unknown of first-time headgear. Charlie's Gift and Dunany Point, the latter with his front-running style and hood, round out the principals in a race where the uncontested lead could shape events.
KTB Selection Ladies Well
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit Score?
Ladies Well is the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 62/100.
What is the expected pace shape and how many front-runners are there?
Lone leader with high confidence — one clear front-runner with little to pressure it, likely an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
Four of the five principals — Ladies Well, Gaoithe Glory, Jouster and Charlie's Gift — are usually held up and produce their effort late; Dunany Point tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Gaoithe Glory, Jouster, Dunany Point, King's Son, Island McCoo, Rideau Canal, Johnny M, Max Time, Backinabit and Firstupbestdressed are all wearing first-time headgear.
What are the trainer and jockey strike rates at Roscommon for the selection's connections?
Trainer Andrew Slattery has a 12% strike rate at Roscommon from 152 runs with an A/E of 1.23; jockey Darragh O'Keeffe has a 12% strike rate from 93 rides with an A/E of 0.99.
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