8:00 Roscommon
The Campbell's Bar Ballinlough Handicap Steeplechase at Roscommon is a competitive 19-runner 3m1f14y event run on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Stormy Master and Kilkee Bay sharing a 67/100 mark, followed by John Storey on 61, while Il Silenzio and Sampoet sit on 58. Most of the field arrive in first-time headgear, adding an extra layer of unknowns to a staying handicap where recent form is mixed and many runners are stepping up markedly in trip.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the race is expected to be run at a solid gallop from early on. Oogum Boogum and Kilashee are the types to take the field along, while the majority of the field, including the top principals, are habitual hold-up performers who will be produced late. This strong pace could cause the race to collapse in the latter stages, posing the key question of which hold-up horses can pick up the pieces most effectively when the leaders tire.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Stormy Master67/100Fair handicapper who has shown bits of form this year but was well held on his last two starts.
- 2Kilkee Bay KTB Selection67/100Useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Roscommon.
- 3John Storey61/100Useful performer who has been struggling for form lately with three pulled-ups from his last five starts.
- 4Il Silenzio58/100Useful performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from just a handful of starts.
- 5Sampoet58/100Sampoet is a useful performer on his best days but has been out of sorts for much of the last year and was pulled up or well beaten on his last three completed…
- 6One Way Traffic56/100Useful performer who showed a bit more spark when second on return at Punchestown last month.
- 7Decimation55/100Useful performer who has been placed on good ground and showed some competitive form last season.
- 8Oogum Boogum51/100Fair performer who has been consistent of late with form figures of 13238 and holds solid ratings for this level.
- 9Midnight Moonshine50/100Useful performer who has been out of form this season with a string of modest efforts.
- 10Thewaybackhome49/100Fair performer who has shown some consistency of late with a string of placed efforts including over this trip.
- 11Difficult Decision49/100Useful performer on his day but now a 13-year-old with a modest recent record of 746-45.
- 12Ballagh Star47/100Ballagh Star is a fair handicap chaser who has won on good ground but looks vulnerable on recent evidence.
- 13Made U Look47/100Made U Look is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but has looked limited in two starts this year.
- 14Written In My Soul47/100Fair performer who has struggled badly since last summer and arrives with three pulled-up efforts in the last four starts.
- 15Kilashee44/100Kilashee is a fair 11-year-old who has won once from four runs at Roscommon.
- 16True Harmony42/100True Harmony is a fair performer who has shown some ability in recent starts but has failed to place in his last six outings.
- 17Deal Again40/100Modest 12-year-old who has been out of form for a long time and arrives with a recent pulled-up effort.
- 18Love Like This40/100Fair performer who has been a regular in staying handicaps and has placed six times on good ground from 20 starts.
- 19Captain Kate33/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and was pulled up or well beaten in four of her last five runs.
The contenders
Stormy Master KTB Fit 67/100
Stormy Master is a fair handicapper who has shown bits of form this year but was well held on his last two starts. He steps up markedly in trip today having won three times at this distance in the past, though his two runs here have been modest. First-time headgear is now tried while the trainer has a solid 20% strike-rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 2.02 from 15 runs. The jockey has a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.56 from 25 rides. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, and has two wins from 16 starts on good ground with four places. His recent form reads 170-39 and he carries the top KTB Fit rating of 67/100 alongside the selection.
Kilkee Bay KTB Fit 67/100
Kilkee Bay is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Roscommon. He showed improved form when winning last time but steps up in trip today and has never placed on good ground from six attempts. First-time headgear is an unknown. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 1 from 111 runs, while the jockey boasts a 50% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 9.39 from just two rides. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, and won here from one run. His recent form is 6-U812 and he shares the top KTB Fit score of 67/100.
John Storey KTB Fit 61/100
John Storey is a useful performer who has been struggling for form lately with three pulled-ups from his last five starts. He has no win or place from four runs on good ground and steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge on his only previous attempt at this distance. First-time headgear is now applied while both trainer and jockey have solid records at Roscommon. The trainer has a 17% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.82 from 18 runs and the jockey records 13% with an A/E of 0.97 from 76 rides. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, with recent form of 6P4PP- and a KTB Fit rating of 61/100.
Il Silenzio KTB Fit 58/100
Il Silenzio is a useful performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from just a handful of starts. He showed a fair bit when fourth on return and the first-time headgear could sharpen him up further, though he has yet to win on good ground. The trainer operates at a steady 10% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.05 from 60 runs while the 7lb claimer is an interesting booking. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, and has won here from two runs. His recent form reads /3P1-4 and he is rated 58/100 on the KTB Fit scale.
Sampoet KTB Fit 58/100
Sampoet is a useful performer on his best days but has been out of sorts for much of the last year and was pulled up or well beaten on his last three completed starts. He steps up markedly in trip today while wearing first-time headgear, questions he has never answered before. The trainer’s modest 4% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 0.6 from 26 runs is offset by the jockey’s solid 17% record at the track with an A/E of 1.54 from six rides. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, and has placed once from eight runs on good ground. Recent form is 4584U7 and the KTB Fit rating is 58/100.
The rest of the field
One Way TrafficKTB Fit 56/100
One Way Traffic is a useful performer who showed a bit more spark when second on return at Punchestown last month. He steps up markedly in trip today while trying good ground for the first time, both of which are unknowns, along with first-time headgear. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 0.72 from 46 runs. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, with recent form of 86F9-2 and a KTB Fit rating of 56/100.
DecimationKTB Fit 55/100
Decimation is a useful performer who has been placed on good ground and showed some competitive form last season. First run at Roscommon and first time in headgear add unknowns while the step up to 3m1f is another fresh question. The trainer has a modest 8% strike rate here from 111 runs and the jockey is still seeking a first course winner from eight rides. He typically settles in midfield with recent form of 03260- and a KTB Fit rating of 55/100.
Oogum BoogumKTB Fit 51/100
Oogum Boogum is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with form figures of 13238 and holds solid ratings for this level. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also tried. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 13 runs here and the jockey is 0-8 at the track. He tends to make the running or race on the pace, has one win from eight on good with two places, and carries a KTB Fit rating of 51/100.
Midnight MoonshineKTB Fit 50/100
Midnight Moonshine is a useful performer who has been out of form this season with a string of modest efforts. He has placed over this trip in the past and showed some promise when second here on his only previous visit to Roscommon. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard and jockey both have limited course data to go on. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, has placed once from seven on good, and is rated 50/100 on the KTB Fit scale.
ThewaybackhomeKTB Fit 49/100
Thewaybackhome is a fair performer who has shown some consistency of late with a string of placed efforts including over this trip. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition given the yard's modest 0% strike-rate from 12 runs at Roscommon. Going suitability remains unknown with only seven career runs to date. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, has placed once from two on good, and holds a KTB Fit rating of 49/100.
Difficult DecisionKTB Fit 49/100
Difficult Decision is a useful performer on his day but now a 13-year-old with a modest recent record of 746-45. He has never won or placed in five runs on good ground and has been beaten both times he has tried this trip. First-time headgear is tried today on his debut at Roscommon where the trainer operates at a 7% strike rate with an A/E of 0.72 from 46 runs. He typically settles in midfield and is rated 49/100 on the KTB Fit scale.
Ballagh StarKTB Fit 47/100
Ballagh Star is a fair handicap chaser who has won on good ground but looks vulnerable on recent evidence. He has been pulled up or well beaten in four of his last five starts and has failed to complete or place in either run at Roscommon. The first-time headgear is a possible positive but the trainer's poor record at the track and the horse's three unsuccessful tries at this trip suggest he will need to improve to be competitive. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, and carries a KTB Fit rating of 47/100.
Made U LookKTB Fit 47/100
Made U Look is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but has looked limited in two starts this year. He was well beaten on his only previous visit to Roscommon and the yard has a poor 0% strike rate from 28 runs here. First-time headgear is now applied as he steps up markedly in trip. He typically settles in midfield, is unproven on good ground, and is rated 47/100 on the KTB Fit scale.
Written In My SoulKTB Fit 47/100
Written In My Soul is a fair performer who has struggled badly since last summer and arrives with three pulled-up efforts in the last four starts. He steps up markedly in trip today while wearing first-time headgear. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track but the horse's own course and going form is unconvincing. He typically settles in midfield with recent form of 5P-PP6 and a KTB Fit rating of 47/100.
KilasheeKTB Fit 44/100
Kilashee is a fair 11-year-old who has won once from four runs at Roscommon. He has shown little spark on his last two starts and steps up in trip today to a distance he has never tried. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.41 from 103 runs is another negative. He tends to make the running or race on the pace, has two wins from nine on good with five places, and is rated 44/100 on the KTB Fit scale.
True HarmonyKTB Fit 42/100
True Harmony is a fair performer who has shown some ability in recent starts but has failed to place in his last six outings. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him while his record on good ground remains modest with no win or place from three runs. This is his first visit to Roscommon and the trainer also has no previous runners here. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, with recent form of 8-9266 and a KTB Fit rating of 42/100.
Deal AgainKTB Fit 40/100
Deal Again is a modest 12-year-old who has been out of form for a long time and arrives with a recent pulled-up effort. He has never won or placed on good ground from four attempts and steps up in trip today for a stable with a modest 6% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 0.78 from 338 runs. The jockey has a solid 17% record here with an A/E of 1.15 from 24 rides but the overall profile remains weak. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, with a KTB Fit rating of 40/100.
Love Like ThisKTB Fit 40/100
Love Like This is a fair performer who has been a regular in staying handicaps and has placed six times on good ground from 20 starts. He steps up in trip today having last run over 2m4½f and is unproven at this distance. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Roscommon from 103 runs with an A/E of 0.41 is a negative on this first visit to the track. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, with recent form of 531430 and a KTB Fit rating of 40/100.
Captain KateKTB Fit 33/100
Captain Kate is a modest performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and was pulled up or well beaten in four of her last five runs. She has a placed effort on good ground from five attempts but steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance on her only previous try. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate at Roscommon from 97 runs with an A/E of 0.45 while the first-time headgear is an unknown. She is held up, usually producing her effort late, with recent form of 66P-P9 and the lowest KTB Fit rating of 33/100.
KTB verdict
Kilkee Bay is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Roscommon and showed improved form when winning last time, with the course record and strong jockey figures at the track providing solid support. The first-time headgear remains an unknown as does the step up in trip and lack of placed form on good ground, yet the overall profile fits well in a race where the strong pace should suit his hold-up style. The main dangers are Stormy Master, who shares the top Fit rating and has winning form at the trip, Il Silenzio who has already won over course and distance, and Sampoet who could improve for the new headgear and longer trip on his best days.
KTB Selection Kilkee Bay
This is the narrative read of the 8:00 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won both over this trip and at Roscommon?
Il Silenzio has already won over this trip and at this track from just a handful of starts.
How many of the field are wearing first-time headgear?
The majority of the field arrive in first-time headgear.
Which jockey has the strongest course record in the race?
Mr J Dunne has a 50% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 9.39 from two rides.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Roscommon among those with runners?
Ray Hackett has a 20% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 2.02 from 15 runs.
Which runners are likely to set the pace?
Oogum Boogum and Kilashee are the types to take the field along as habitual front-runners.
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