7:40 Kempton (AW)
This Class 4 handicap division at Kempton over 6f on standard to slow ground serves as a qualifier for the London Sprint Series and features a field of ten three-year-olds. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Angel Gabriel and Exotic Baby both rated 60, followed by Big Harry on 57, Generous Rascal on 55 and Sayidah Hard Spun on 54. Several runners bring useful juvenile form into their handicap marks while others have already shown their hand on the all-weather, and the strong-pace setup is expected to play a significant part.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is strongly positive and a solid gallop looks assured. Big Harry from stall 1, Deported and Seu Jo are all inclined to go forward while Generous Rascal and Sir Alfie tend to race prominently, which should ensure an honest test. That tempo is predicted to collapse late and hand the advantage to hold-up performers, posing the key question of which of the patient runners can time their effort best when the leaders tire.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Angel Gabriel60/100Angel Gabriel showed useful promise as a juvenile, winning a 6f Lingfield maiden on his third start and finishing second in two prior runs for an RPR of 89.
- 2Exotic Baby KTB Selection60/100Useful performer who has run three times at this track without winning yet has placed once.
- 3Big Harry57/100Big Harry showed useful form as a 2yo, winning at this trip on heavy ground and finishing placed in two other starts with the latest two efforts backing up that…
- 4Generous Rascal55/100Useful performer who won over C&D for a previous yard last October and has held his form well in two 6f handicaps on turf since joining this stable.
- 5Sayidah Hard Spun54/100Sayidah Hard Spun is a fair 3-year-old who has already won over this trip and on today's standard-to-slow surface.
- 6Deported53/100Deported has shown useful form with an RPR of 92 and consistent placed efforts including a second here over 7f.
- 7Front Line Fury49/100Front Line Fury is a fair performer on his best days with a solid 87 RPR and two wins over this 6f trip from nine attempts.
- 8Amazing Journey48/100Fair performer who has won twice over this trip from just four attempts.
- 9Seu Jo48/100Seu Jo is a useful performer on his best figures but has been well held in both starts for this yard since arriving from France.
- 10Sir Alfie40/100Sir Alfie is a fair performer on his best figures but has been well below that level in three starts this year.
The contenders
Angel Gabriel KTB Fit 60/100
Angel Gabriel showed useful promise as a juvenile, winning a 6f Lingfield maiden on his third start and finishing second in two prior runs for an RPR of 89. He now makes his handicap debut off a fair mark after being gelded, with the trip clearly suiting him. The yard has a solid 18% strike rate at Kempton from a large sample while Crouch is operating at 12% here. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and that run-style should be ideally suited to the anticipated strong pace. He is unproven on standard to slow going and has no course form on record, yet the Ralph Beckett yard's 18% strike rate at the track from 1101 runs and Hector Crouch's 12% from 764 rides add to his appeal.
Exotic Baby KTB Fit 60/100
Exotic Baby is a useful performer who has run three times at this track without winning yet has placed once. She drops back to an untried 6f today having been held by the handicapper over longer trips since landing a 1m win as a two-year-old. Trainer and jockey both operate at a steady level here with similar A/E figures around 0.95. Usually held up, she produces her effort late and that style looks well placed given the strong pace that is likely to unfold. She has a record of one win from four on standard to slow going and has placed without winning from three starts at Kempton, making her a solid each-way contender on these terms.
Big Harry KTB Fit 57/100
Big Harry showed useful form as a 2yo, winning at this trip on heavy ground and finishing placed in two other starts with the latest two efforts backing up that level. He returns from a seven-month break into handicaps off a tempting mark and is well drawn in stall 1. Trainer William Stone has a 4% strike rate from 107 runs at Kempton while Kieran Shoemark posts a 10% strike rate from 772 rides here. He tends to make the running or race on the pace, which will ensure he is to the fore in a race where the pace is set to be strong. He is unproven on standard to slow going and has no course form on record, yet his RPR of 95 suggests he is a major player if the break has not left its mark.
Generous Rascal KTB Fit 55/100
Generous Rascal is a useful performer who won over C&D for a previous yard last October and has held his form well in two 6f handicaps on turf since joining this stable. The switch back to the all-weather looks a positive given his record here and on the surface, though he is now 3lb above that Kempton winning mark. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 9% strike rate at the track. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he should be prominent in a race with a strong pace likely. He has one win from two on standard to slow going and has won once from two starts at Kempton, making the surface return a plus.
Sayidah Hard Spun KTB Fit 54/100
Sayidah Hard Spun is a fair 3-year-old who has already won over this trip and on today's standard-to-slow surface. She has course experience in her favour having won here from two runs and holds a solid recent RPR of 86. The yard posts a 13% strike rate at Kempton from a large sample while William Buick is operating at 22% here. Usually held up, she produces her effort late and that style is expected to be favoured as the strong pace collapses. Dropping in class is another positive and her record of one win from two on the surface adds to her claims.
The rest of the field
DeportedKTB Fit 53/100
Deported has shown useful form with an RPR of 92 and consistent placed efforts including a second here over 7f. He now drops back to an untried 6f which asks a fresh question while his trainer posts an 8% strike rate from 118 runs at Kempton and the jockey is on 7% from 808 rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and has placed without winning from two starts at the track.
Front Line FuryKTB Fit 49/100
Front Line Fury is a fair performer on his best days with a solid 87 RPR and two wins over this 6f trip from nine attempts. He has been below form in both starts this year though and remains unproven on standard to slow going. The yard’s modest 9 percent strike rate at Kempton and the jockey’s 4 percent record here add to the negatives on his first run at the track. Usually races handily, he should be prominent early.
Amazing JourneyKTB Fit 48/100
Amazing Journey is a fair performer who has won twice over this trip from just four attempts. He showed promise on his recent return at Leicester after a patchy winter and holds an RPR of 86 that suggests he can be competitive off this mark if he breaks cleanly. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here on the all-weather. Usually held up, his late-run style could suit the strong pace.
Seu JoKTB Fit 48/100
Seu Jo is a useful performer on his best figures but has been well held in both starts for this yard since arriving from France. He drops back to 6f having failed to land a blow at the trip in three previous attempts and was well beaten when last seen here over 7f. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at Kempton. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Sir AlfieKTB Fit 40/100
Sir Alfie is a fair performer on his best figures but has been well below that level in three starts this year. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over previously though he remains unproven on standard to slow going. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 10 runs at Kempton while the jockey operates at 6% from 126 rides here. Usually races handily, he should be close to the early pace.
KTB verdict
The strong pace should play into the hands of the hold-up performers and that makes the selection Exotic Baby well placed to strike late. She is a useful performer with placed form at the track, has the benefit of a 1m win on her record and drops back to 6f off a mark that looks manageable. Her trainer and jockey both hold steady records at Kempton and the surface stats are sound. Angel Gabriel is a big danger on handicap debut after showing useful juvenile promise, while Big Harry from stall 1 and the course-winning Generous Rascal are others who can feature.
KTB Selection Exotic Baby
This is the narrative read of the 7:40 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Big Harry, Deported and Seu Jo tend to make the running or race on the pace while Generous Rascal and Sir Alfie usually race prominently.
Why is the race expected to favour hold-up horses?
The pace shape is strong with two or more habitual front-runners and is predicted to collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Which runners have previous winning form over this 6f trip?
Big Harry, Generous Rascal, Sayidah Hard Spun, Front Line Fury and Amazing Journey have all won over 6f.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at Kempton AW among the principals?
William Buick is operating at 22% strike rate at Kempton AW from 1126 rides when riding for Richard Hughes.
Which horse is dropping back in trip from longer handicaps?
Exotic Baby drops back to an untried 6f today having been held by the handicapper over longer trips.
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