7:45 Roscommon
This 1m4f48y maiden at Roscommon on good ground brings together a field of 16, the majority of them lightly raced 3-year-olds with limited or no experience at the trip. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Venerini just heading the list on 55, followed closely by Sunny South West on 54 and One Cool County on 51. Overall the numbers point to a race where proven stamina is scarce and most runners carry significant unknowns, making the pace shape particularly influential.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will get an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in over this distance. Most of the principals, including the selection, are held-up types who will be produced late, while the only front-running influence among them is Teoest. The key question is whether any of the hold-up brigade can bridge the gap to a clear leader on a track where an easy lead has often been decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Venerini KTB Selection55/100Venerini has shown little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions.
- 2Sunny South West54/100Fair performer who arrives in decent nick after two placed efforts and has shown he handles this trip.
- 3One Cool County51/100Lightly raced and only beaten a length and a half on debut before a lesser effort last time.
- 4Magnum Cor48/100Lightly raced 3 year old who showed fair promise when fourth on debut over 1m1f.
- 5Daily Wonder47/100Daily Wonder is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 6Ben Lomond47/100Lightly raced with just nine career starts and a modest recent effort when ninth on return.
- 7Teoest47/100Lightly raced with just two runs and a pair of modest efforts so far.
- 8Almazann46/100Placed twice in two starts at this trip and looks to have a bit more to offer as a 3-year-old.
- 9Salamina45/100Salamina has been well beaten on both starts to date and arrives with only two runs in the book.
- 10My Girl Jersie44/100My Girl Jersie has shown little so far with a string of modest efforts including a poor return this season.
- 11Purple Bandit44/100Mrs John Harrington has a solid 13% strike rate at Roscommon from a big sample.
- 12Swing Street43/100Swing Street has only one run on the board, a modest sixth on debut over 1m1½f, so expectations remain low with the small sample.
- 13Possum42/100Possum showed little on his sole start when finishing eighth.
- 14Sea Celia's Star41/100Sea Celia's Star has only two runs in the book, both producing poor results.
- 15Michinaga38/100Michinaga has only one run on the board, a modest ninth on debut over 1m1f.
- 16De Vega Queen34/100Fair performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three starts, finishing sixth and fourth before a respectable fifth last time.
The contenders
Venerini KTB Fit 55/100
Venerini has shown little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions. The step up to 1m4f is an unknown that could bring improvement but the small sample makes any firm view risky. Trainer Michael Butler has a solid 12 percent strike rate at Roscommon from 34 runs while the 5 lb claimer Paddy Harnett has limited course experience. Usually held up and producing its effort late, Venerini will need the uncontested leader to come back to the field if it is to feature. The yard's record here from a modest sample offers some encouragement in an open-looking heat.
Sunny South West KTB Fit 54/100
Sunny South West is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after two placed efforts and has shown he handles this trip. He has won twice from five starts on good ground and the first-time headgear could sharpen him up further. Trainer Edward F Power has only a small sample at Roscommon so that side remains unproven, while Jack Cleary rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, he will be aiming to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time. The placed form at the trip and the headgear combine to make him a serious player.
One Cool County KTB Fit 51/100
One Cool County is lightly raced and only beaten a length and a half on debut before a lesser effort last time. The step up to 1m4f is a fresh question. Trainer P J F Murphy has a 10% strike rate from 31 runs at Roscommon while Ronan Whelan takes the ride. Run-style evidence is limited but he is generally held up and will be produced late. With only two runs in the book the small sample limits confidence, yet the debut promise suggests he could improve for the longer trip if the leader does not get away.
Magnum Cor KTB Fit 48/100
Magnum Cor is a lightly raced 3-year-old who showed fair promise when fourth on debut over 1m1f. He now steps up markedly in trip which asks a fresh question of him. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard have a solid 20% strike rate at Roscommon from a big sample of 279 runs and Dylan Browne McMonagle is aboard. Run-style is limited in evidence but he is expected to be held up. The debut effort gives him a foothold in the race and the stable's course record adds interest in what looks a winnable heat.
Daily Wonder KTB Fit 47/100
Daily Wonder is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here and the low data confidence means any conclusions are tentative. Trainer T G McCourt has a modest 4% strike rate from 204 runs at Roscommon while James Ryan rides. With no public form to go on, assessment rests on the yard's modest local record and the fact that most of the field also carry unknowns. The 1m4f trip will be an unknown for this first-timer.
The rest of the field
Ben LomondKTB Fit 47/100
Ben Lomond is lightly raced with just nine career starts and a modest recent effort when ninth on return. Placed once from five runs on good ground but has never won and showed no joy in his only try at this trip. Trainer Gerard Kyne has only three runs at Roscommon so the sample is too small to judge.
TeoestKTB Fit 47/100
Teoest is lightly raced with just two runs and a pair of modest efforts so far. Trainer J S Bolger at Roscommon has a solid 12% strike rate from a big sample of 565 runs. Trip looks a fair question again having failed to make the frame in both starts at this distance. The only confirmed front-runner in the field, he could take advantage of the lone-leader pace shape.
AlmazannKTB Fit 46/100
Almazann has been placed twice in two starts at this trip and looks to have a bit more to offer as a 3-year-old. The small sample means there is no reliable read on whether the good ground or the Roscommon track will suit. Weld and Hayes have a solid record here and the yard's strike-rate suggests the horse should not be underestimated.
SalaminaKTB Fit 45/100
Salamina has been well beaten on both starts to date and arrives with only two runs in the book. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard posts a solid 20% strike rate at Roscommon from a large sample. Stepping up markedly in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse whose ability remains largely unknown on this small evidence base.
My Girl JersieKTB Fit 44/100
My Girl Jersie has shown little so far with a string of modest efforts including a poor return this season. Stepping up markedly in trip for the first time asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 13 adds to the difficulties. First-time headgear is now fitted.
Purple BanditKTB Fit 44/100
Mrs John Harrington has a solid 13% strike rate at Roscommon from a big sample. Purple Bandit is a first-time-out debutant with first-time headgear applied and the yard's record with 3yos on debut is modest. Low data confidence means the assessment rests mainly on pedigree and sales background which offer no standout clues here.
Swing StreetKTB Fit 43/100
Swing Street has only one run on the board, a modest sixth on debut over 1m1½f, so expectations remain low with the small sample. The step up to 1m4¼f asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 16 is far from ideal on this tight track. Trainer Richard John O'Brien holds an 11% strike rate from 27 runs at Roscommon.
PossumKTB Fit 42/100
Possum showed little on his sole start when finishing eighth. The trip looks no better second time around and the wide draw is another negative from stall 12. Trainer Mrs John Harrington at Roscommon has a solid 13 percent strike rate from 480 runs.
Sea Celia's StarKTB Fit 41/100
Sea Celia's Star has only two runs in the book, both producing poor results. The drop back in trip today poses a fresh question while the wide draw is another negative on this lightly-raced profile. Trainer and jockey records at Roscommon are too small to read anything into.
MichinagaKTB Fit 38/100
Michinaga has only one run on the board, a modest ninth on debut over 1m1f. He now steps up markedly in trip to an untested 1m4f, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey each have too few runs at Roscommon to form any reliable view.
De Vega QueenKTB Fit 34/100
De Vega Queen is a fair performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three starts, finishing sixth and fourth before a respectable fifth last time. Steps up in trip again today having already tried this distance once without success, which asks a fresh question of her stamina. Trainer J A Stack has a modest 5% strike rate from 19 runs at Roscommon.
KTB verdict
Venerini is the KTB Selection. Although he has shown little in two starts so far, the step up to 1m4f could unlock improvement and the trainer's solid record at Roscommon from a modest sample offers encouragement. He will be ridden patiently from his midfield draw in a race where the uncontested leader may set a target that is hard to reach. The main dangers are Sunny South West, who brings the best recent form and first-time headgear, and Magnum Cor, whose debut promise and powerful yard make him interesting at the longer trip. One Cool County and Almazann are others who can improve for the distance and should not be dismissed.
KTB Selection Venerini
This is the narrative read of the 7:45 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to get the uncontested lead?
Teoest is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and the pace shape is rated as a lone leader with high confidence.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
Four of the top five principals – Venerini, Sunny South West, One Cool County and Magnum Cor – are described as held up.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Roscommon among the principals?
Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 20% strike rate at Roscommon from 279 runs, relevant to both Magnum Cor and Salamina.
Who rides the KTB Selection and what is their course strike rate?
Paddy Harnett rides Venerini with an 8% strike rate at Roscommon from 26 rides.
Which horse has the most placed form at this trip among the principals?
Sunny South West has two placed efforts at this trip and has shown he handles the distance.
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