8:15 Roscommon
An 18-runner grass handicap over 1m4f48y at Roscommon on good ground features a mix of modest performers, several of whom are trying headgear for the first time. The KTB Fit scores range from 65 down to 34, underlining a competitive but largely exposed field where course form, going suitability and trainer records at the track carry particular weight. Out On Friday tops the KTB Fit ratings and is the clear selection.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Out On Friday's strong front-running style means he is likely to dictate an uncontested lead from the outset. With so many held-up types in the field, including the next four principals, the race could easily become a test of whether any closer can bridge the gap in the straight. The key question is whether the clear leader can maintain his advantage on a track where uncontested front-runners have proved difficult to peg back.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Out On Friday KTB Selection65/100Modest performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has a solid record on good ground with six wins from 22 starts.
- 2Lily Parr59/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year after a string of ordinary efforts last season.
- 3Lady Plimsoll57/100Modest performer who has been consistent of late with placed efforts on her last two starts.
- 4Duke Of Leggagh56/100Modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 5Daonethatgotaway54/100Modest performer who has won on good ground and at today's trip.
- 6Master Sydney52/100Modest performer who has won once in three starts at this track.
- 7Deralo Ir52/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on his better days but has been well below form in both starts this season.
- 8Enchanted Lady49/100Modest performer who has shown little since a fair fourth on debut here over shorter.
- 9Catherine Magennis48/100Modest performer who has shown some ability in three starts, finishing placed on both her latest outings including when second over this trip.
- 10Coulstys Way47/100Modest performer who won over this trip on his only attempt and has already scored at Roscommon from three runs here.
- 11Fianna45/100Limited performer who has never won or placed in nine starts and showed only modest form when fourth of 14 here last season.
- 12Summer Snow44/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts.
- 13Chopsticks44/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts.
- 14Double Indian44/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts this year and was well held when ninth on his only previous visit to Roscommon.
- 15Spy40/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of 63361 that includes a win last time out.
- 16Yquem40/100Limited performer who has shown bits of ability but remains winless after 12 starts.
- 17Autocrat35/100Autocrat is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and arrives here with a recent record of 170009.
- 18Piatra Neamt34/100Limited horse who has shown very little in ten runs and was well beaten when fifth of seven over this course and trip on his only visit to Roscommon.
The contenders
Out On Friday KTB Fit 65/100
Out On Friday is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has a solid record on good ground with six wins from 22 starts. He drops back in trip today having last run over a mile and six, though he has won four times from 15 starts at this distance. The 10-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence and looks ideally placed to take advantage of the projected lone-leader shape. Trainer Philip M Byrne has a 12% strike rate at Roscommon with a strong A/E of 2.35 from 25 runs, while the combination with Wesley Joyce shows 2/22 (9%) with an A/E of 1.46. He has course-and-distance winning form and is taken to make full use of an uncontested lead.
Lily Parr KTB Fit 59/100
Lily Parr is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year after a string of ordinary efforts last season. She has a placed effort at today's trip but was well beaten on her only previous visit to Roscommon and remains unproven on good ground. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need the leader to come back to her in a race where the pace shape favours the front-runner. Trainer Ms Sheila Lavery has an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.2 from 62 runs, and the jockey Siobhan Rutledge shows 7% from 45 rides here. The yard's solid course record offers some encouragement but she faces a stiff task against an uncontested leader.
Lady Plimsoll KTB Fit 57/100
Lady Plimsoll is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with placed efforts on her last two starts. She drops back in trip from 1m6f having been placed without winning at this distance, while she has won once from four runs on good ground. Typically settling in midfield, she will be looking to pick up the pieces if the leader falters late on. Trainer M D O'Callaghan has a 14% strike rate at Roscommon from 43 runs with an A/E of 1.32, though the jockey Jamie Powell is operating at 7% here. She arrives in reasonable form but must overcome both the draw and the projected pace setup.
Duke Of Leggagh KTB Fit 56/100
Duke Of Leggagh is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Dropping back from 2m should suit and the first-time headgear is another plus, though he has looked out of form on his last two starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will require the leader to stop or the pace to collapse. He has scored here from five runs and has one win from ten starts on good ground. Trainer Michael Mulvany has a 7% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 0.84 from 95 runs, while the apprentice Hannah Rafferty takes the ride. Course-and-distance ability gives him a foothold in the race.
Daonethatgotaway KTB Fit 54/100
Daonethatgotaway is a modest performer who has won on good ground and at today's trip. Recent form is mixed with a string of lesser efforts after a promising start to the year, though first-time headgear may help. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be aiming to come from off the pace in a race likely to be run to suit the leader. Trainer Mark Fahey has a 12% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 0.97 from 43 runs, though the jockey Reese Holohan is still seeking a first course winner from six rides. He has shown enough at this trip to remain of interest.
The rest of the field
Master SydneyKTB Fit 52/100
Master Sydney is a modest performer who has won once in three starts at this track. Dropping back from 2m3f to 1m4f poses a fresh question and the first-time headgear is another unknown, while his recent form has been poor. Trainer Paul W Flynn has a 7% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 0.68 from 193 runs.
Deralo IrKTB Fit 52/100
Deralo Ir is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his better days but has been well below form in both starts this season. Trainer A J Martin has a 12% strike rate from 201 runs at Roscommon. Trip looks a fresh question having failed to make an impact when tried over this distance before and he remains unproven on good ground.
Enchanted LadyKTB Fit 49/100
Enchanted Lady is a modest performer who has shown little since a fair fourth on debut here over shorter. She steps up markedly in trip today with first-time headgear applied while the yard's solid 11% strike-rate at Roscommon offers some hope. Jockey Sam Coen is less proven at the track.
Catherine MagennisKTB Fit 48/100
Catherine Magennis is a modest performer who has shown some ability in three starts, finishing placed on both her latest outings including when second over this trip. She has already run well here at Roscommon and the drop back from 1m5f looks a fair move. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at the track is a negative.
Coulstys WayKTB Fit 47/100
Coulstys Way is a modest performer who won over this trip on his only attempt and has already scored at Roscommon from three runs here. Recent form is patchy with a pulled-up and unseated in his last two starts, though he has shown enough placed efforts on good ground to suggest he can be competitive at this level. Trainer operates at a 4% strike rate from 25 runs at the track.
FiannaKTB Fit 45/100
Fianna is a limited performer who has never won or placed in nine starts and showed only modest form when fourth of 14 here last season. She drops back in trip today with first-time headgear but remains vulnerable on balance. Trainer operates at a 7% strike rate at Roscommon from 54 runs.
Summer SnowKTB Fit 44/100
Summer Snow is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. She steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 7f and it is a fresh question for a horse with four wins from 15 starts on good ground. First-time headgear is now tried while the trainer has only a small sample at the track.
ChopsticksKTB Fit 44/100
Chopsticks is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip having been placed without winning at this distance previously while his record on good ground shows a few placed efforts but no wins. First-time headgear is now tried as he makes his debut at the track where the trainer operates at a 7% strike rate.
Double IndianKTB Fit 44/100
Double Indian is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts this year and was well held when ninth on his only previous visit to Roscommon. He drops back in trip from 1m6f having failed to trouble the judge in two runs at this distance. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate from 480 runs at the track.
SpyKTB Fit 40/100
Spy is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 63361 that includes a win last time out. He has run four times at Roscommon without placing and drops back from 2m1f to a trip where he has been placed twice from four starts. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard posts a 12% strike rate at the track.
YquemKTB Fit 40/100
Yquem is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability but remains winless after 12 starts. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge on his one previous attempt at this distance while his record on good ground is only modest with a single placing from six runs. Trainer and jockey both have established but unspectacular records at Roscommon.
AutocratKTB Fit 35/100
Autocrat is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and arrives here with a recent record of 170009. He has placed once from two runs at Roscommon and is 1-10 on good ground, though the trainer is still without a winner from eight runs at the track. Dropping back in trip today to a distance he has won at before, he tries headgear for the first time.
Piatra NeamtKTB Fit 34/100
Piatra Neamt is a limited horse who has shown very little in ten runs and was well beaten when fifth of seven over this course and trip on his only visit to Roscommon. He drops back in trip today having failed to make the frame in three previous attempts at the distance and now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer has a 0% strike rate from 21 runs at the track while the horse remains unproven on good ground.
KTB verdict
Out On Friday is the KTB Selection. A modest performer with two wins from six runs at Roscommon and a strong record on good ground, he is perfectly suited to the projected lone-leader pace shape given his high-confidence front-running style. The drop back to a trip at which he has won four times from 15 starts further strengthens his claims, as does the trainer's excellent A/E figure at the track. Main dangers are likely to come from Lily Parr, whose yard has a solid record here, and the course winners Duke Of Leggagh and Coulstys Way, though both need to bounce back from recent poor efforts.
KTB Selection Out On Friday
This is the narrative read of the 8:15 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited to the lone-leader pace shape?
Out On Friday, whose front-running style with high confidence aligns perfectly with the projected uncontested lead.
How many course winners are in the field?
Out On Friday (two wins from six), Duke Of Leggagh (one from five), Master Sydney (one from three) and Coulstys Way (one from three).
Which runners are unproven on good ground?
Lily Parr, Deralo Ir and Piatra Neamt have no runs on good; Enchanted Lady, Double Indian and Yquem have limited or modest records on the surface.
Which trainer has the strongest A/E at Roscommon in this race?
Philip M Byrne with an A/E of 2.35 from 25 runs for Out On Friday.
How many principals are trying headgear for the first time?
Two: Duke Of Leggagh and Daonethatgotaway.
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