7:48 Roscommon
A competitive 19-runner Roscommon (Q.R.) Handicap Chase over 2m5f150y on soft ground sees a strong pace likely according to the KTB numbers, with the top five Fit Scores tightly clustered between 63 and 57. The KTB Selection, Ta Se Rua, tops the rankings on a career-high RPR of 108 despite his advancing years, while several others arrive in modest recent form or with questions to answer over the trip, ground and track. Trainer and jockey records at the venue are largely uninspiring across the field, underlining the importance of how the race unfolds given the predicted strong pace that could collapse late.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is expected to be strong, which could see the race collapse in the latter stages and play to those with a hold-up style. Ta Se Rua tends to make the running or race prominently, while Kilashee is another who will be on or close to the lead, and Cavalry Master usually races handily. In contrast, several hold-up types such as Silent Flight, Finnicky Filly, Revolut Ned and The Rebel County will be looking to pick up the pieces if the leaders fold. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms or if the strong pace will create openings for the patient ones from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ta Se Rua KTB Selection63/100RPR 108 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2Stormy Master62/100RPR 101 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3Silent Flight61/100RPR 97 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 4Cavalry Master59/100RPR 98 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5Finnicky Filly57/100RPR 102 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 6Bohemian Bay57/100No RPR available — neutral score applied
- 7Revolut Ned56/100RPR 99 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 8Kilashee51/100RPR 104 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 9Jouster51/100RPR 97 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 10Rideau Canal50/100RPR 99 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 11The Rebel County50/100RPR 97 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 12Global Assembly49/100RPR 90 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 13Eddies Pride48/100RPR 91 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 14Annie Questions48/100RPR 72 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 15Ballagh Star45/100RPR 99 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 16Made U Look44/100RPR 94 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 17Kilkee Bay42/100RPR 84 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 18Robin Elite39/100RPR 77 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 19Ballingurteen38/100No RPR available — neutral score applied
The contenders
Ta Se Rua KTB Fit 63/100
Ta Se Rua is a 13-year-old who remains a smart performer on his best days, as evidenced by an RPR of 108 that stands up well in this field comparison. He has won over today's trip in the past though recent seasons have seen him largely out of form, including showing little spark when last seen in the shape of /P663-. The trainer is 0% from six runs at Roscommon while the jockey has no recorded rides at the track, both of which are neutral factors at best. He is 0-from-1 on yielding to soft ground and this is his first start at the course, so several unknowns remain on that front. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could set a strong gallop in a race where that pace is predicted to be strong and potentially collapse late.
Stormy Master KTB Fit 62/100
Stormy Master is a useful 12-year-old with an RPR of 101 who ran creditably when third on his return at this trip last time out, adding to previous placed efforts over today's distance from the form of 0170-3. He showed little on his only previous run at Roscommon and was also beaten on his one start on yielding to soft ground, leaving those aspects as concerns. The trainer holds a solid 17% strike rate at the track from 12 runs with an A/E of 1.62, which is a positive, though the jockey has no recorded rides here. Settling typically in midfield should see him well placed if the strong pace does collapse late, as the numbers suggest it might.
Silent Flight KTB Fit 61/100
Silent Flight is a useful performer on his best days with an RPR of 97 but has shown little in four starts this year, being pulled up or well beaten in three of them from the form of F/P0-8. He steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance on his only previous attempt, though the switch to yielding to soft ground looks fine on the basis of one placed effort. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate from 24 runs at Roscommon with an A/E of 2.47, but the jockey remains winless from 16 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is the type to benefit if the predicted strong pace collapses in the latter stages.
Cavalry Master KTB Fit 59/100
Cavalry Master is a useful performer on his best days with a solid career rating of 98 but arrives on the back of a string of poor efforts including three pulled-ups from the form of B8PPU-. He drops back from a recent 4m1f run to a trip he has won at three times from eight starts, which looks more suitable on paper. The yielding to soft ground he has tried once before remains an unknown at this stage, and this is his first appearance at Roscommon where the trainer is 0% from 18 runs. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he could be involved early in what is set to be a strongly run affair.
Finnicky Filly KTB Fit 57/100
Finnicky Filly is a useful performer on her best figures with an RPR of 102 but has been below form in three starts this season from the line of 72-656 and now steps up in trip for the first time. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate from 98 runs at Roscommon with an A/E of 0.43, though the 7lb claimer is making only his second ride at the track and boasts a 100% strike rate from one previous effort here. She has never encountered yielding to soft ground and makes her debut at the course, so several unknowns remain. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she could be suited if the strong pace collapses as anticipated.
The rest of the field
Bohemian BayKTB Fit 57/100
Bohemian Bay has shown very little in six runs under rules and arrives here on the back of a poor recent form line of 8850-0. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m1f and his single previous attempt at this sort of distance brought no joy, though point-to-point places offer some hope he can do better over fences as a 6yo.
Revolut NedKTB Fit 56/100
Revolut Ned is a useful performer on his figures with an RPR of 99 and arrives in decent nick after a win and a third on his last two starts from 2F0-13. He has been placed twice from four runs at today's trip though he is unproven on yielding to soft ground and makes his first visit to Roscommon, where the trainer is 0% from eight runners.
KilasheeKTB Fit 51/100
Kilashee is a useful performer on his best days with a solid RPR of 104 and has won over this trip five times from 20 starts. He has course experience in his favour having won here from three runs but his record on yielding to soft ground is poor with no wins or places from six attempts.
JousterKTB Fit 51/100
Jouster is a useful performer who has won twice over this trip from seven attempts and arrives in decent nick with two placed efforts from his last three starts from 050-43. First-time headgear is now fitted though he has only run once on this sort of ground without troubling the judge.
Rideau CanalKTB Fit 50/100
Rideau Canal is a useful performer on his day with an RPR of 99 but has been largely out of form this year and was pulled up or well beaten in his last three starts from 951P-0. He drops back in trip having won at this distance in the past though he is unproven on yielding to soft ground.
The Rebel CountyKTB Fit 50/100
The Rebel County is a useful performer on his best days with an RPR of 97 but has failed to win in 14 starts and looks exposed at this trip after five runs without success from 677-44. He has shown little at Roscommon in two visits and his sole run on yielding to soft ground also brought no reward.
Global AssemblyKTB Fit 49/100
Global Assembly is a useful performer on his best days with an RPR of 90 but arrives here on the back of a poor 9th last time and has been generally out of form from 0P34-9. He makes his debut here dropping back in trip to 2m5f on ground he has never encountered so plenty remains unknown.
Eddies PrideKTB Fit 48/100
Eddies Pride is a useful performer on his best days but has become hard to win with lately and looks vulnerable from a mark of 91. He has been well beaten both starts at Roscommon and showed little on his only run on yielding to soft ground from the form of 00PP-5.
Annie QuestionsKTB Fit 48/100
Annie Questions is a modest performer who showed improved form when winning last time out over 2m3.5f from 0544-1. She steps up in trip today which is an unknown and she is unproven on yielding to soft ground, with first-time headgear now applied.
Ballagh StarKTB Fit 45/100
Ballagh Star is a useful performer on his day with an RPR of 99 and has placed three times at today's trip without winning. He showed very little on his most recent start and was pulled up on his previous outing from 321P-0, while he has never won or placed on yielding to soft ground from three attempts.
Made U LookKTB Fit 44/100
Made U Look is a useful performer on his best day with an RPR of 94 and has shown steady progress through his five runs from 43461-. He drops back in trip from 3m1f to 2m5f where he has tried the distance once before without success and the small sample on going leaves that side of things unknown.
Kilkee BayKTB Fit 42/100
Kilkee Bay is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 84 but has been largely out of form this year and was pulled up or well beaten on his last three starts from 8F6-U8. He has placed once in six runs at this trip though has never won over it, while the switch to yielding to soft ground is an unknown.
Robin EliteKTB Fit 39/100
Robin Elite is a fair performer on his best days but arrives here with a poor recent record of 0PP-0P and has failed to finish in three of his last five starts. The drop back from 3m to this trip looks a positive on paper given he has tried the distance six times before though he has never won at it.
BallingurteenKTB Fit 38/100
Ballingurteen has shown definite improvement in her last two handicap hurdles at around 2m3f and now steps up in trip having already tried this distance twice without success from 9P72-3. A fair performer on the balance of her ratings and race history she remains lightly raced overall with the going an unknown.
KTB verdict
Ta Se Rua is the KTB Selection at the head of the Fit Scores and retains the ability to figure prominently on his best days with that RPR of 108. Despite his advancing years and recent lack of spark he has the run style to set the pace in a race that could fall apart late, and he has won over the trip before. The main dangers are likely to come from those who can pick up the pieces, with Stormy Master and Silent Flight both holding solid claims if the strong pace does collapse as the numbers predict. Revolut Ned and Finnicky Filly add further depth to what looks a typically tricky handicap.
KTB Selection Ta Se Rua
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 09:25 UTC, 8 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Ta Se Rua | 22/1 | 10Bet |
| Stormy Master | 10/1 | William Hill |
| Silent Flight | 28/1 | William Hill |
| Cavalry Master | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Finnicky Filly | 8/1 | BetTom |
| Bohemian Bay | 30/1 | 7Bet |
| Revolut Ned | 11/2 | William Hill |
| Kilashee | 9/1 | William Hill |
| Jouster | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| Rideau Canal | 20/1 | William Hill |
| The Rebel County | 18/1 | William Hill |
| Global Assembly | 70/1 | 7Bet |
| Eddies Pride | 70/1 | 7Bet |
| Annie Questions | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Ballagh Star | 18/1 | 10Bet |
| Made U Look | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Kilkee Bay | 16/1 | 10Bet |
| Robin Elite | 70/1 | 7Bet |
| Ballingurteen | 11/4 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 7:48 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit Score?
Ta Se Rua is the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 63/100.
What is the predicted pace shape and how might it affect hold-up horses?
Strong pace likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
How many times has Kilashee won over today's trip?
Kilashee has won over this trip five times from 20 starts.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Roscommon for the yard of the KTB Selection?
The trainer of Ta Se Rua is 0% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 0 from 6 runs.
Which runners are noted as unproven on yielding to soft ground?
Finnicky Filly, Revolut Ned, Rideau Canal, Annie Questions, Made U Look, Kilkee Bay, Global Assembly and Ballingurteen are all unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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