8:00 Redcar
A competitive Class 6 handicap over 5f 217y at Redcar on good ground brings together a field of 20 limited performers, many of whom have been knocking on the door at this level without progressing. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Little Beck Annie just heading the numerical verdict on 55, followed closely by Heathers Feather on 54 and Macedonian on 52. Recent form is mixed across the board, but several hold course-and-distance experience or suitable placed efforts on similar ground, while the overall picture points to a race that could be decided by how the strong pace unfolds.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the early fractions are likely to be keen. Ellie's de Vega, Lope Y Linda and Lindoro are all noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure a genuine test and increase the chance of the pace collapsing in the final furlong. That scenario would play into the hands of the numerous hold-up performers, several of whom are drawn across the track and will be looking to come from off the speed late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Little Beck Annie KTB Selection55/100Limited performer who has shown mixed form this year.
- 2Heathers Feather54/100Limited on ability and has shown little progress across five runs.
- 3Macedonian52/100Macedonian is a limited performer on his overall record and has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 4Night Emperor51/100Night Emperor is a limited horse who has shown just enough at this level to win a couple of times.
- 5Hurstwood49/100Hurstwood is a limited performer who has been on the go a long time and rarely finds the frame these days.
- 6Rinky Tinky Tinky49/100Limited performer who has been out of the frame on all three starts this year and looks to have found little for the handicapper.
- 7Ellie's de Vega49/100Limited performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing in the first three in five of her last six starts.
- 8Stormy Pearl48/100Limited performer who has won once in 13 starts at Redcar and holds a respectable record at today's trip with three wins from 35 runs.
- 9Multaneighttothree48/100Limited performer who has shown little in four starts this year.
- 10Lope Y Linda44/100Limited performer who has been placed on good ground and at this trip but has never won in 16 starts.
- 11Lindoro44/100Limited performer who has shown little since a fair debut effort last year.
- 12Mrs Trump43/100Mrs Trump is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this season with a string of modest efforts.
- 13Drish Samphire42/100Limited performer who showed a bit more when winning a similar race last time out.
- 14Battenburg Belle41/100Battenburg Belle is a limited filly who has been consistent at this level without progressing.
- 15Indy's Angel38/100Limited performer who has been placed a couple of times this season but has failed to win in 24 starts.
- 16Fair Isle Sioux36/100Limited performer who has shown very little in four career starts and was well beaten when fifth on this track over 7f last time.
- 17South Shore Island35/100Limited horse who has shown some placed form without winning.
- 18Sparkling Wine35/100Sparkling Wine is a limited performer who has shown inconsistent form across eight runs this year with a best of second.
- 19Lady Grey34/100Limited filly who has shown only modest form in three starts and was well held when fourth over course and distance on her most recent run.
- 20Ziva's Star33/100Limited horse who has been around the track plenty without winning.
The contenders
Little Beck Annie KTB Fit 55/100
Little Beck Annie is a limited performer who has shown mixed form this year. She won a similar race at Catterick last time but has been below that level on her other starts. The Peter Niven yard holds a 10% strike rate at Redcar from 80 runs with an A/E of 1.25, while David Nolan operates at 10% from 404 rides with an A/E of 0.9. Suited by today's trip and good ground on which she is 1-3, she is held up and usually produces her effort late. The 4-year-old has no previous course form but arrives with a recent winning effort in the book and is the KTB Selection.
Heathers Feather KTB Fit 54/100
Heathers Feather remains limited on ability and has shown little progress across her five runs to date. She was beaten only a length and a half when fourth over course and distance on her penultimate start yet failed to build on it last time. First-time headgear is now fitted while the wide draw in stall 18 adds to the difficulties from a yard with a 7% strike rate at Redcar. The 3-year-old is held up and usually produces her effort late, though she remains unproven on good ground. Alex Jary's 14% strike rate at the track from 74 rides offers some hope despite the overall modest profile.
Macedonian KTB Fit 52/100
Macedonian is a limited performer on his overall record and has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has shown a bit more spark on his last two starts though and has won over today's trip. The Michael Dods yard and Connor Beasley both operate at a 9% strike rate at Redcar, the trainer from a large sample of 1000 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the 4-year-old is placed on good ground without winning and has no previous course form. The recent signs of life keep him in the picture in a race full of similar types.
Night Emperor KTB Fit 51/100
Night Emperor is a limited horse who has shown just enough at this level to win a couple of times. He has course experience in his favour having already won here from two runs and he also has a win at today's trip on his record. The Tina Jackson yard's modest 6% strike rate at Redcar from 121 runs is a negative but the 3lb claimer Warren Fentiman is operating at an 18% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.35. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has failed to place in three runs on good ground yet remains a contender on his best efforts at this venue.
Hurstwood KTB Fit 49/100
Hurstwood is a limited performer who has been on the go a long time and rarely finds the frame these days. He has won at this track and at today's trip yet his recent form of 466047 shows he is struggling to land a blow. The Peter Niven yard and Billy Garritty both hold a 10% strike rate at Redcar from decent sample sizes, the trainer with an A/E of 1.25 from 80 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the 9-year-old is 1-17 on good ground with four places and has won once from six starts here. Experience is on his side even if his current form is modest.
The rest of the field
Rinky Tinky TinkyKTB Fit 49/100
Rinky Tinky Tinky is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on all three starts this year and looks to have found little for the handicapper. The trainer shows a solid 13% strike rate at Redcar from 15 runs while the jockey operates at a modest 6% from 177 rides here; the 4-year-old has won at today's trip but is 0-3 on good ground and makes a first appearance at the course.
Ellie's de VegaKTB Fit 49/100
Ellie's de Vega is a limited performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing in the first three in five of her last six starts. She has placed here and on this ground, though her record at the trip remains winless from seven attempts. The trainer and jockey both hold modest records at Redcar, and she tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Stormy PearlKTB Fit 48/100
Stormy Pearl is a limited performer who has won once in 13 starts at Redcar and holds a respectable record at today's trip with three wins from 35 runs. Recent form of 254303 shows consistency without much spark and the yard's poor 4% strike rate at the track is a clear negative, though the jockey's 14% strike rate here offers some encouragement on good ground where the mare is proven. Usually held up.
MultaneighttothreeKTB Fit 48/100
Multaneighttothree is a limited performer who has shown little in four starts this year. The yard has a modest record at Redcar and this one faces a stiff task from stall 13. The trip looks suitable enough on pedigree but the overall profile remains modest and the 4-year-old is unproven on good ground.
Lope Y LindaKTB Fit 44/100
Lope Y Linda is a limited performer who has been placed on good ground and at this trip but has never won in 16 starts. Looks exposed at this level having shown only modest form in four runs at Redcar without placing. The trainer has an 8% strike-rate here from a huge sample while the jockey is operating at 5% from 20 rides, and the 3-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace.
LindoroKTB Fit 44/100
Lindoro is a limited performer who has shown little since a fair debut effort last year. Has failed to place in three runs at this trip and was well held when fourth on his only visit to Redcar. First-time headgear is now applied but the yard has too small a sample at the track to read much into, and he tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Mrs TrumpKTB Fit 43/100
Mrs Trump is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this season with a string of modest efforts. She does have solid course connections having won twice from six runs here and also has three wins from 21 starts at today's trip. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Redcar is offset by the jockey's stronger 14% record at the track, and she typically settles in midfield.
Drish SamphireKTB Fit 42/100
Drish Samphire is a limited performer who showed a bit more when winning a similar race last time out. Has won on good ground and at today's trip but the yard's modest record here and the jockey's low strike-rate add little confidence. First run at Redcar and usually held up.
Battenburg BelleKTB Fit 41/100
Battenburg Belle is a limited filly who has been consistent at this level without progressing. She has shown some ability on good ground and has won over today's trip, though her two runs here have produced no impact from wide draws. The trainer's modest record at Redcar adds little encouragement while the jockey's single ride here leaves his course record unproven, and she is usually held up.
Indy's AngelKTB Fit 38/100
Indy's Angel is a limited performer who has been placed a couple of times this season but has failed to win in 24 starts. Has run just once at Redcar and shown no real promise on good ground either. The trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates here, and the 4-year-old usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
Fair Isle SiouxKTB Fit 36/100
Fair Isle Sioux is a limited performer who has shown very little in four career starts and was well beaten when fifth on this track over 7f last time. Drops back to 5f today which asks a fresh question while the yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Redcar. The jockey's 6% record from 211 rides here offers little encouragement and the 6-year-old is unproven on good ground.
South Shore IslandKTB Fit 35/100
South Shore Island is a limited horse who has shown some placed form without winning. Has been competitive on good ground and has one placing from a single run at this track. Steps up in trip today for a yard and jockey with too few runs here to judge, and is usually held up.
Sparkling WineKTB Fit 35/100
Sparkling Wine is a limited performer who has shown inconsistent form across eight runs this year with a best of second. She steps up in trip having failed to win or place in two previous attempts at this distance and has also been unplaced on all three starts on good ground. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Redcar but this looks a tough ask on the balance of her ratings and race history, and she is usually held up.
Lady GreyKTB Fit 34/100
Lady Grey is a limited filly who has shown only modest form in three starts and was well held when fourth over course and distance on her most recent run. Dropping back from 7f raises a fresh question while the yard and jockey both have modest records at Redcar. Little else stands out in a race where she remains fully exposed and she is dropping in class.
Ziva's StarKTB Fit 33/100
Ziva's Star is a limited horse who has been around the track plenty without winning. She has shown the odd bit of form here at Redcar but her four runs read 7th, 6th, 4th and 8th with no placed effort, while the trainer's 2% strike rate from 47 runs underlines the yard's modest record at the track. First-time headgear is now fitted as she drops back to 5f where she is 0-10, and she is usually held up.
KTB verdict
Little Beck Annie is the KTB Selection. She showed enough when winning a similar event at Catterick last time to suggest she can cope with this field, is suited by the trip and good ground, and benefits from a yard and jockey who both hold 10% strike rates at Redcar. The strong pace should suit her hold-up style, allowing her to come from off the speed if the leaders go too hard. Main dangers include Night Emperor, who has already won here and at the trip, and Macedonian, who has shown a bit more spark on his last two starts despite an overall modest profile. Hurstwood and Heathers Feather cannot be entirely ruled out if the race sets up for the hold-up brigade.
KTB Selection Little Beck Annie
This is the narrative read of the 8:00 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most suited by the likely strong pace?
Little Beck Annie, who is usually held up and produces her effort late with high-confidence run-style data.
How many wins has Night Emperor recorded at Redcar?
One win from two runs at the course.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Redcar for the yard of Mrs Trump?
7% strike rate from 494 runs with an A/E of 0.79.
Which runners are noted as tending to make the running or race prominently?
Ellie's de Vega, Lope Y Linda and Lindoro.
On what ground is Heathers Feather unproven?
Good ground, with no previous runs recorded.
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