7:30 Redcar
This Class 5 handicap division at Redcar over 5f 217yds on good ground brings together ten modest performers in a race that lacks any obvious pace influence. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but unspectacular contest, headed by Bonnie's Boy on 67 with the remainder tightly bunched between 59 and 35. Most of the field are dropping in class and several hold placed form at the trip, yet few arrive in strong form or with glowing course records.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed leader in the field the pace shape suggests a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy to the pace will pay. The majority of runners, including the top five in the KTB Fit order, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any horse can get into a rhythm early enough to take advantage when the race begins in earnest inside the final two furlongs.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Bonnie's Boy KTB Selection67/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and was well held when fourth over this course and distance on his most recent start.
- 2Rotokura Belle59/100Modest performer who has won twice on good ground from seven attempts.
- 3Farandaway57/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of 212126 that includes two wins.
- 4Marajito50/100Modest performer who won on his only previous visit to Redcar.
- 5Come On Over49/100Modest performer who has shown enough to win one of his seven runs at this trip.
- 6Irish Nectar48/100Modest performer who has been out of the frame in all nine starts this year and looks vulnerable from a wide draw.
- 7Cairdeas46/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, finishing second twice and fourth on his last two starts.
- 8Speeding Bullet45/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts after an early second.
- 9Magistery41/100Modest performer who has failed to build on an early 5f win.
- 10Men Of Honour35/100Modest performer who has been well below form this year with a string of poor efforts.
The contenders
Bonnie's Boy KTB Fit 67/100
Bonnie's Boy is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and was well held when fourth over this course and distance on his most recent start. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground and has placed form at today's trip, but he lacks a win in either sphere and his overall record suggests he finds life tough at this level. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Redcar, the trainer operating at a 24% strike rate with an A/E of 1.65 from 17 runs while the 3lb-claiming jockey posts an 18% strike rate and A/E of 1.35 from 33 rides here. Dropping in class from a midfield draw of four, the four-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. His recent form reads 49-404 and he has been placed twice from five starts on good ground.
Rotokura Belle KTB Fit 59/100
Rotokura Belle is a modest performer who has won twice on good ground from seven attempts. She has run well enough in places without winning for a while and was only seventh of 13 when tried here previously. Stepping up in trip today, the three-year-old represents a yard and jockey both operating at a steady 10% strike rate at Redcar, the trainer on an A/E of 0.93 from 93 runs and the jockey on 0.97 from 80 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, her recent form is 641737 and she drops in class from draw eight. She has been placed three times from seven starts on good ground.
Farandaway KTB Fit 57/100
Farandaway is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 212126 that includes two wins. Dropping back to 5f today where he has already won once from nine attempts, though his last run came over 7f, the four-year-old is another usually held up type with high confidence in that assessment. Trainer Grant Tuer strikes at 9% here from 125 runs with an A/E of 0.81 while jockey Oliver Stammers is a bit sharper at 13% from 47 rides with an A/E of 0.97. He has been placed once from three starts on good ground, arrives from draw five with no previous course form, and is dropping in class.
Marajito KTB Fit 50/100
Marajito is a modest performer who won on his only previous visit to Redcar. He has been consistent enough this year without progressing much and steps back up to this trip having failed to place in three previous attempts at it. The yard posts an 8% strike rate at the track from a large sample of 2332 runs with an A/E of 0.78, while jockey Oisin McSweeney operates at 11% with an A/E of 0.91 from 45 rides here. Usually held up with high confidence, the four-year-old has a recent form line of 516542, one win from seven starts on good ground with two places, and is drawn two while dropping in class.
Come On Over KTB Fit 49/100
Come On Over is a modest performer who has shown enough to win one of his seven runs at this trip. He has been in and out of form this year and looks held by his recent efforts on good ground where he has failed to place in four attempts. The trainer holds a solid 15% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.02 from 761 runs, though the jockey is less proven with an 8% strike rate and A/E of 0.71 from only 13 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, the three-year-old has recent form figures of 842144, no course form on record, and is dropping in class from draw six.
The rest of the field
Irish NectarKTB Fit 48/100
Irish Nectar is a modest performer who has been out of the frame in all nine starts this year and looks vulnerable from a wide draw. He has won at today's trip but is 0-8 on good ground and has never run here before, with the trainer and jockey both holding modest records at Redcar.
CairdeasKTB Fit 46/100
Cairdeas is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, finishing second twice and fourth on his last two starts. He has shown he can handle this trip though has never managed to get his head in front at it, acts on good ground with a win and three places from seven runs, and both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track.
Speeding BulletKTB Fit 45/100
Speeding Bullet is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts after an early second. He has placed once from a single run at this track and holds a solid record at today's trip, though he is stepping back up in distance after recent runs at the minimum, with the trainer's modest strike rate at Redcar offset by the jockey's stronger record here.
MagisteryKTB Fit 41/100
Magistery is a modest performer who has failed to build on an early 5f win. Dropping back to his winning trip looks the right move after a lacklustre 7f run last time, yet his two efforts here read poorly and he has been beaten a long way on both visits, with both trainer and jockey sitting on 9% strike rates at Redcar from large samples.
Men Of HonourKTB Fit 35/100
Men Of Honour is a modest performer who has been well below form this year with a string of poor efforts. He drops back to 5f today having looked one-paced over longer trips but holds no wins or places from six previous attempts at the distance, while both trainer and jockey have modest records at Redcar and the horse has no previous experience here.
KTB verdict
Bonnie's Boy is the KTB Selection. A modest performer with placed form at the trip and competitiveness on good ground, he drops in class for a yard and jockey with strong Redcar figures and is expected to be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race from his midfield draw. His recent fourth over the course and distance gives him a solid recent reference point in a field where few arrive with strong momentum. The main dangers are Farandaway, who boasts the best recent form in the race and returns to his winning trip, and Marajito, who won on his sole previous visit to Redcar and is drawn to track the pace. Rotokura Belle and Come On Over are others who can feature if the race falls their way late.
KTB Selection Bonnie's Boy
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent form figures in the race?
Farandaway, whose recent record reads 212126.
How many of the field are dropping in class?
Four of the principals are dropping in class: Bonnie's Boy, Rotokura Belle, Farandaway and Marajito.
Which horse has course-and-distance winning form?
None of the field has a course-and-distance win; Marajito won over the course but at an unspecified distance on his only visit.
Who holds the strongest trainer record at Redcar among the principals?
David O'Meara with a 15% strike rate and A/E of 1.02 from 761 runs.
Which runners are confirmed held-up types with high confidence?
Rotokura Belle, Farandaway, Marajito, Come On Over, Irish Nectar, Cairdeas, Magistery and Men Of Honour.
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