8:10 Kempton (AW)
This Class 4 fillies' handicap at Kempton over 1m3f219y on standard to slow ground brings together a field of nine where the KTB numbers point to a competitive but winnable heat for those with solid course and distance experience. The principals are headed by Club Class, who carries the highest Fit Score of 65, followed by Caramay on 62, Possible on 58 and Jindri on 54. Several runners are dropping in class while others step up, and with a genuinely-run pace shape the race should provide a fair test that rewards those who can time their efforts well from off the pace.
How the race shapes up
A front-runner is likely to be pressed by several handy types in what is rated a genuinely-run race with high confidence. Desert Belle from stall one tends to make the running or race prominently, while Shushi and Too Farhh Gone are both usually on or close to the lead. The majority of the field, including the top three in the KTB Fit rankings, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate enough to hold off the late challengers in a fair test.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Club Class KTB Selection65/100Club Class is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two places from his last five starts.
- 2Caramay62/100Caramay is a fair handicapper who has run to form on her last six starts and looks sure to go well again from a handy mark.
- 3Possible58/100Fair ex-French performer who has shown enough to rate as fair on her best efforts.
- 4Jindri54/100Jindri showed fair form when landing a 1m4f handicap at Southwell last November and has won at today's trip from one attempt.
- 5Desert Belle53/100Desert Belle shaped with promise when winning a Southwell novice over this trip on her second start and has a solid RPR of 83 to her name.
- 6Golden Muse52/100Golden Muse is a fair filly who has won three of her four starts and posted a solid RPR of 81 when third at Doncaster last time.
- 7Shushi50/100Shushi has made the frame in all four starts and ran creditably when third here over this trip on her most recent visit.
- 8Too Farhh Gone47/100Fair performer who won a Southwell maiden over 1m3f in April before finishing a solid fourth on handicap debut at Salisbury.
- 9Soleil d'Arizona35/100Soleil d'Arizona is a fair performer on his figures who has been placed once at this trip though he has never won over it.
The contenders
Club Class KTB Fit 65/100
Club Class is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two places from his last five starts. Already a winner at this trip and on this track where he is 1 from 5, the standard to slow surface has also suited with a win and two places from five runs. Dropping in class from a draw of two, this held-up type usually produces his effort late. James Fanshawe has a solid 17% strike rate at Kempton from a big sample while William Buick is operating at 22% here, and the pair hold a combined record of 15/78 with an A/E of 0.98.
Caramay KTB Fit 62/100
Caramay is a fair handicapper who has run to form on her last six starts and looks sure to go well again from a handy mark. She has won over this trip and on this track, and her record on standard to slow going reads a solid 1-1-2 from four runs. Dropping in class from stall nine, this held-up type usually produces her effort late with high confidence. The trainer and jockey both have above-average strike rates at Kempton, the yard at 11% with an A/E of 1.04 and the rider at 10% with an A/E of 1.03 from their combined record of 2/11 with an A/E of 1.07.
Possible KTB Fit 58/100
Possible is a fair ex-French performer who has shown enough to rate as fair on her best efforts. She has been placed at today's trip and should come on for her recent return from a long break though that ninth at Newbury was still well below her previous form. Stepping up in class from draw six, this held-up type usually produces her effort late though with limited evidence and low confidence. Harry Derham has a solid 17% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 1.32 while Callum Rodriguez is operating at 19% with an A/E of 1.29.
Jindri KTB Fit 54/100
Jindri showed fair form when landing a 1m4f handicap at Southwell last November and has won at today's trip from one attempt. She has only run once here though and finished 13th on that visit. Stepping up in class from draw four, this held-up type usually produces her effort late with medium confidence. The yard posts a 13% strike rate at Kempton from 491 runs with an A/E of 1.02 while Hector Crouch is on 12% from 764 rides with an A/E of 0.99.
The rest of the field
Desert BelleKTB Fit 53/100
Desert Belle shaped with promise when winning a Southwell novice over this trip on her second start and has a solid RPR of 83 to her name. She looked less fluent when only fourth on handicap debut at Wolverhampton last time though and still gives the impression there is more to come, though she is stepping up in class, unproven on standard to slow and has no course form.
Golden MuseKTB Fit 52/100
Golden Muse is a fair filly who has won three of her four starts and posted a solid RPR of 81 when third at Doncaster last time. She steps back up to 1m4f having already won at the trip and looks suited by the return to a longer distance though she is dropping in class, unproven on standard to slow and has no course form.
ShushiKTB Fit 50/100
Shushi has made the frame in all four starts and ran creditably when third here over this trip on her most recent visit. She posted a fair handicap debut fourth at Doncaster last time and now drops 3lb, with placed form on standard to slow and a third on her only previous course visit.
Too Farhh GoneKTB Fit 47/100
Too Farhh Gone is a fair performer who won a Southwell maiden over 1m3f in April before finishing a solid fourth on handicap debut at Salisbury. She has only tried today's trip once without success and the small sample makes going suitability hard to judge, and she has no course form.
Soleil d'ArizonaKTB Fit 35/100
Soleil d'Arizona is a fair performer on his figures who has been placed once at this trip though he has never won over it. He drops back from 2m today having been out of form on his last three starts and now makes his first appearance at Kempton on standard to slow ground where he is completely unproven.
KTB verdict
Club Class is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with consistent form including a win and two places from his last five starts, he has already won at this trip and on this track where the standard to slow surface has also suited him. James Fanshawe and William Buick combine with above-average figures at Kempton, and his held-up style should be suited by the expected genuinely-run pace. The main dangers are Caramay, who has run to form on her last six starts and boasts a strong record here and on the surface, and Possible who can improve on her return though she steps up in class.
KTB Selection Club Class
This is the narrative read of the 8:10 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won both at this trip and at Kempton?
Club Class and Caramay have both won at this trip and on this track.
How many of the field are stepping up in class?
Possible, Jindri and Desert Belle are all stepping up in class.
Which runners are unproven on standard to slow going?
Possible, Desert Belle, Golden Muse, Too Farhh Gone and Soleil d'Arizona are all unproven on standard to slow.
Who are the most prominent runners in the pace shape?
Desert Belle tends to make the running or race on the pace while Shushi and Too Farhh Gone usually race handily on or close to the lead.
What is the trainer strike rate at Kempton for the handler of the KTB Selection?
James Fanshawe has a 17% strike rate at Kempton from 1059 runs with an A/E of 0.98.
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