6:10 Kempton (AW)
This Class 3 Unibet/EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 1m2f219y at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together a field of nine three-year-old fillies, the majority of whom are lightly raced and unproven on the all-weather surface. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Danseuse, Velvet Vega and Tribal Queen all rated in the high 50s after promising debut efforts, while the rest of the field look more modest on the numbers supplied. With no established leader in a steadily-run, tactical contest, the ability to produce a late effort from a handy position could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious front-runner, pointing to a steadily-run affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, though with limited evidence on which to base that judgement. This sets up a tactical race where the key question will be whether any horse can quicken effectively off a modest gallop or whether one of the more forward-placed runners can steal an advantage in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Danseuse KTB Selection60/100Fair performer who shaped with promise when third on debut at Newcastle last month.
- 2Velvet Vega59/100Velvet Vega showed signs of greenness but finished a clear second on debut at Newmarket last month with the form looking useful in this context.
- 3Tribal Queen58/100Tribal Queen showed fair ability when third on debut at Haydock last month, staying on after a slow start to be beaten under 3l over 1m2f on soft ground.
- 4Gypsy Jazz Queen52/100Gypsy Jazz Queen is a well-bred newcomer from a yard that operates at an 18 percent strike rate with its AW two-year-olds.
- 5Palomezcal50/100Palomezcal has shown only modest form in two starts to date and needs to improve markedly to figure here.
- 6Persian Flaw48/100Persian Flaw showed only modest ability on debut at Salisbury last month when slowly away and never involved.
- 7Sullom Voe47/100Sullom Voe has shown fair ability in two starts over 1m2f on turf, recording an RPR of 77 without threatening to win either race.
- 8Salve Allegra46/100Salve Allegra is a newcomer from a yard that has a 9 percent strike rate at Kempton from 444 runs.
- 9Midnight Steppers35/100Midnight Steppers has shown little in three runs, finishing well beaten each time and recording a career-high RPR of just 32.
The contenders
Danseuse KTB Fit 60/100
Danseuse shaped with promise when finishing third on her debut at Newcastle last month and is taken to build on that effort now. Rated with an RPR of 86, she represents a yard that strikes at 19% at Kempton on the all-weather with an A/E of 0.99 from 245 runs, while Callum Rodriguez is 19% from 42 rides at the track with an A/E of 1.29. The Simon & Ed Crisford stable and jockey combination has a 2/8 (25%) record together. She is unproven on standard to slow ground and has no course form, while dropping back in trip to a distance she has not tried before. Usually held up and producing her effort late with limited evidence, she is the KTB Selection.
Velvet Vega KTB Fit 59/100
Velvet Vega showed signs of greenness but finished a clear second on debut at Newmarket last month, with the form looking useful in this context and backed by an RPR of 97. She now steps up in trip while drawn wide in stall nine, both of which pose fresh questions. The John & Thady Gosden yard has a 21% strike rate at Kempton from 357 runs and a 46/159 (29%) record with Oisin Murphy, who himself is 18% from 1402 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.9. She is unproven on standard to slow ground and has no course form. Usually held up and producing her effort late with limited evidence, she remains a major player dropping in class.
Tribal Queen KTB Fit 58/100
Tribal Queen showed fair ability when third on debut at Haydock last month, staying on after a slow start to be beaten under 3l over 1m2f on soft ground for an RPR of 85. A Frankel half-sister to a Listed-placed 1m4f winner, she now steps up in trip as a fresh question while the small sample means her rating has to be read with caution. Charlie Appleby has a 32% strike rate at Kempton from 576 runs and William Buick is 22% from 1126 rides here, with the pair holding a 825/2785 (30%) record together. She is unproven on standard to slow ground and has no course form. Usually held up and producing her effort late with limited evidence, she is another with strong claims.
Gypsy Jazz Queen KTB Fit 52/100
Gypsy Jazz Queen is a well-bred newcomer by St Mark's Basilica, whose dam scored at this track in Group company with further high-class stamina in the family through Izzi Top. She is a half-sister to a useful AW winner and hails from a yard that operates at an 18% strike rate with its AW two-year-olds. Ralph Beckett has an 18% strike rate at Kempton from 1101 runs with an A/E of 0.99, while Hector Crouch is 12% from 764 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.99; the pair have a 181/874 (21%) record together. With no course win on record and this being her first start, there is very little else to go on, yet the pedigree and yard profile command respect.
The rest of the field
PalomezcalKTB Fit 50/100
Palomezcal has shown only modest form in two starts to date, recording an RPR of 76, and needs to improve markedly to figure here. The step up to 1m3f is an unknown that could suit on pedigree though the yard's 8% strike rate at Kempton from 189 runs offers no particular encouragement, while Jack Doughty has a 10% record at the track from 82 rides; the pair are 0/5 (0%) together. Usually held up and producing her effort late with limited evidence, she is unproven on standard to slow ground and has no course form.
Persian FlawKTB Fit 48/100
Persian Flaw showed only modest ability on debut at Salisbury last month when slowly away and never involved for an RPR of 74. He now steps up markedly in trip as a fresh question while switching to the all-weather. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Kempton and the very limited data means this one is best approached with caution. Usually held up and producing his effort late with limited evidence, he is unproven on standard to slow ground and has no course form.
Sullom VoeKTB Fit 47/100
Sullom Voe has shown fair ability in two starts over 1m2f on turf, recording an RPR of 77 without threatening to win either race. He now steps up in trip for the first time on his first run on the all-weather, which asks a fresh question. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 189 runs at Kempton while Saffie Osborne is on 9% from 294 rides here; the pair are 1/6 (17%) together. Typically settling in midfield with medium confidence, he is unproven on standard to slow ground and has no course form.
Salve AllegraKTB Fit 46/100
Salve Allegra is a newcomer from a yard that has a 9% strike rate at Kempton from 444 runs. The second foal of a maiden dam from a German Oaks family, she is hooded for her debut and the trainer is not known for winning with juveniles on the all-weather. With low data confidence this looks one to watch rather than get involved with. By Flintshire with a 10% overall win rate from 309 runners, she has no course win on record.
Midnight SteppersKTB Fit 35/100
Midnight Steppers has shown little in three runs, finishing well beaten each time and recording a career-high RPR of just 32. This looks a limited performer stepping up markedly in trip as a fresh question while carrying a modest profile into a Class 3. The yard posts a 10% strike rate from 794 runs at Kempton and the jockey is on 12% from 1063 rides here; the pair are 13/160 (8%) together with an A/E of 0.85. Typically settling in midfield with medium confidence, she has one run on standard to slow with no win or place and was 11th on her sole Kempton start.
KTB verdict
Danseuse is the KTB Selection after shaping with promise when third on her debut at Newcastle last month. She represents a yard and jockey combination with solid 19% strike rates at Kempton on the all-weather, and the steadily-run nature of the race should suit her held-up run style. Velvet Vega and Tribal Queen are the obvious dangers, both having shown useful form on debut with strong trainer and jockey combinations at this venue, while Gypsy Jazz Queen is an interesting well-bred newcomer from a yard that knows how to ready one for an AW maiden.
KTB Selection Danseuse
This is the narrative read of the 6:10 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip having shown the highest RPR on debut?
Velvet Vega showed signs of greenness but finished a clear second on debut at Newmarket last month with an RPR of 97 and now steps up in trip.
What is the trainer strike rate at Kempton for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Simon & Ed Crisford have a 19% strike rate at Kempton (AW) with an A/E of 0.99 from 245 runs.
How many of the field are unproven on standard to slow ground?
Seven runners have no runs on standard to slow: Danseuse, Velvet Vega, Tribal Queen, Palomezcal, Persian Flaw, Sullom Voe and Salve Allegra.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Kempton among those represented?
Charlie Appleby has a 32% strike rate at Kempton (AW) from 576 runs.
What run style is shared by the top three in the KTB Fit rankings?
Danseuse, Velvet Vega and Tribal Queen are all held up, usually producing their effort late with limited evidence and low confidence.
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