8:18 Tramore
This 2m maiden at Tramore on good ground brings together an 11-runner field where recent consistency and course experience are likely to count for plenty. The KTB Fit scores highlight a clear top pick in Dream On Baby, who stands out with a 66 rating while the rest of the field clusters between 55 and 42, suggesting a race with one strong candidate and several with questions to answer. Emmet Mullins and the ladies' jockeys have solid records at the track, and the application of first-time headgear to a few runners adds an extra layer of interest in what looks an open but winnable heat.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace expected and at least two confirmed front-runners present, the race is likely to be run at a solid clip from early on. Dream On Baby and Splashing Out both tend to make the running or race prominently, which could set up a contest that collapses late and plays into the hands of the hold-up brigade. The key question is whether the pace holds or folds; if it does the latter, the patient runners such as Run For Mahler, Paul's Dream and Thisistheway will be well placed to strike in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Dream On Baby KTB Selection66/100Dream On Baby is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with three seconds and a third from his last four starts.
- 2Run For Mahler55/100Run For Mahler has shown some ability, finishing second here on his only visit to Tramore and winning once from six starts at this trip.
- 3Fraher Field53/100Placed third here over further on his only visit to Tramore and has shown enough on good ground to be competitive.
- 4Paul's Dream52/100Paul's Dream has a solid record on good ground with three wins from six starts and has won twice over today's 2m trip from nine attempts.
- 5Thisistheway51/100Thisistheway arrives with modest recent form and has been off the track since recording a fifth of 14.
- 6Kimy51/100Modest performer who has won over this trip in the past but is stepping back up in distance after his last run over 1m4f.
- 7Ma Belle Etoile49/100Ma Belle Etoile has shown moderate form of late with a pair of placed efforts from seven runs on good ground.
- 8Splashing Out46/100Splashing Out has won once from three starts at Tramore and holds a solid record on good ground with two wins from four runs.
- 9Blue Nasturtium46/100Blue Nasturtium showed fair pace when finishing fourth on debut over 1m4f here last month.
- 10Goodie Girl45/100Goodie Girl has shown very little in a long career and was well beaten on her most recent start.
- 11Silas Marner42/100Silas Marner is a limited performer who has struggled for form in recent starts and now steps up from 1m4f to 2m for the first time in a while.
The contenders
Dream On Baby KTB Fit 66/100
Dream On Baby is a fair performer who has been consistent of late, registering three seconds and a third from his last four starts. He has placed both times at Tramore and acts on good ground with two wins from seven starts, though he now drops back in trip from 2m6f to 2m where his record is zero from five. Emmet Mullins holds a 21% strike rate at the track from 52 runs while Miss M O'Sullivan, who takes the ride, boasts a 20% strike rate and an A/E of 1.37 from 49 rides here. The trainer and jockey combination shows 2/19 (11%) with an A/E of 0.48. First-time headgear is now applied to this front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently. The KTB Fit score of 66 marks him out as the clear selection.
Run For Mahler KTB Fit 55/100
Run For Mahler has shown some ability, finishing second here on his only visit to Tramore and winning once from six starts at this trip. He steps back up in distance from 1m4f with first-time headgear now applied, which could help him settle better from his usual held-up position. C Byrnes holds a 15% strike rate at Tramore from 92 runs while the 7yo remains only partially exposed. The trainer and jockey combination shows 1/26 (4%) with an A/E of 0.70. He has won once and placed three times from five runs on good ground. The KTB Fit score of 55 makes him the second highest rated in the field.
Fraher Field KTB Fit 53/100
Fraher Field was placed third here over further on his only visit to Tramore and has shown enough on good ground, where he is two from four in the frame without winning, to be competitive. He drops back to a trip he has won at before though his recent form is modest with a latest eighth. The yard of John E & Thomas Kiely have a 13% strike rate at this track from 16 runs while Miss A B O'Connor, in the saddle, has a 9% strike rate and A/E of 0.64 from 34 rides here. Usually held up, he produces his effort late. The KTB Fit score is 53.
Paul's Dream KTB Fit 52/100
Paul's Dream has a solid record on good ground with three wins from six starts and has won twice over today's 2m trip from nine attempts. He showed only modest form when fourth on his sole visit to Tramore and is now dropping back in distance after his last run over 2m1f. Anthony Mullins holds a 13% strike rate at this track from 283 runs while Miss J Townend, who rides, has an excellent 36% strike rate and A/E of 1.11 from 45 rides here. The trainer and jockey combination shows 3/11 (27%) with an A/E of 1.89. A hold-up performer who usually produces his effort late, he carries a KTB Fit score of 52.
Thisistheway KTB Fit 51/100
Thisistheway arrives with modest recent form and has been off the track since recording a fifth of 14. He has shown ability on good ground with a win and two places from three runs and has also won over today's trip. The yard of Yvonne Latta holds a 17% strike rate at Tramore from six runs while Miss Georgie Benson takes the ride with a 0% strike rate and A/E of 0 from eight rides here. Usually held up, he produces his effort late. The KTB Fit score is 51.
The rest of the field
KimyKTB Fit 51/100
Kimy is a modest performer who has won over this trip in the past but is stepping back up in distance after his last run over 1m4f. He has course experience with a win from three starts at Tramore and holds a solid record on good ground with one win and four places from eight runs. Thomas Mullins has a 13% strike rate from 63 runs here while jockey Ms K M Ryan has limited experience at the track. The KTB Fit score is 51.
Ma Belle EtoileKTB Fit 49/100
Ma Belle Etoile has shown moderate form of late with a pair of placed efforts from seven runs on good ground. She drops back to a trip she has won at twice from 12 attempts though her two runs here produced no better than fourth. First-time headgear is now tried while Henry De Bromhead's 15% strike-rate at Tramore from 573 runs offers some encouragement. The KTB Fit score is 49.
Splashing OutKTB Fit 46/100
Splashing Out has won once from three starts at Tramore and holds a solid record on good ground with two wins from four runs. He drops back to 2m having scored three times at the trip from 20 attempts yet arrives off a long absence with first-time headgear applied. Eoin Griffin's modest 5% strike rate at the track adds a note of caution. The KTB Fit score is 46.
Blue NasturtiumKTB Fit 46/100
Blue Nasturtium showed fair pace when finishing fourth on debut over 1m4f here last month. The step up to 2m poses a fresh question while the small sample makes it hard to gauge true ability or ground preference. K J Condon holds a 14% strike rate at Tramore from 63 runs. The KTB Fit score is 46.
Goodie GirlKTB Fit 45/100
Goodie Girl has shown very little in a long career and was well beaten on her most recent start. She drops back to 2m having failed to make the frame in her only previous try at the trip while Dermot A McLoughlin's modest 3% strike rate at Tramore from 66 runs offers little encouragement. She has handled good ground in the past but that is about the limit of the positives on what is her first run at this track. The KTB Fit score is 45.
Silas MarnerKTB Fit 42/100
Silas Marner is a limited performer who has struggled for form in recent starts and now steps up from 1m4f to 2m for the first time in a while. He has been placed twice from five runs on good ground and twice from eleven starts at this trip without winning either. Sabrina J Harty holds a 12% strike rate from 33 runs at Tramore while the jockey is making her debut at the track. The KTB Fit score is 42.
KTB verdict
Dream On Baby looks the one to beat. A fair performer with three seconds and a third from his last four starts, he has placed both times at Tramore, acts on good ground and is now fitted with first-time headgear. The Emmet Mullins and Miss M O'Sullivan combination adds further appeal at a track where both have strong records. The main dangers are likely to come from those who can benefit if the strong pace collapses late, with Run For Mahler, who has course form, and the hold-up performers Paul's Dream and Thisistheway all capable of figuring.
KTB Selection Dream On Baby
This is the narrative read of the 8:18 Tramore. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Tramore racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit score?
Dream On Baby is the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 66.
How many confirmed front-runners are there and what is the expected pace shape?
There are two or more habitual front-runners and the pace shape is strong with high confidence, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Dream On Baby, Run For Mahler, Ma Belle Etoile and Splashing Out are all wearing first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Tramore among those represented?
Emmet Mullins has a 21% strike rate at Tramore from 52 runs.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Tramore in this race?
Miss J Townend has a 36% strike rate at Tramore from 45 rides.
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