9:00 Windsor
This Class 5 handicap over 1m31y at Windsor on good to firm ground brings together an even field of eleven three-year-olds, most of them modest performers still seeking to define their level. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Ziggy's Avenger heading the numbers on 57, followed closely by Too Hot To Tango on 54 and Court Of Stars on 50. Recent form is mixed, several runners are stepping up in trip or class, and the lack of course form for the majority adds an extra layer of uncertainty to proceedings.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even tempo with no obvious front-runner dominating, though several hold-up performers could mean the race is decided from mid-pack or off the pace. Ziggy's Avenger is likely to be held up from a wide draw, while Court Of Stars and Upsomdowns are drawn low and could track the pace. The key question is whether the step up to a mile will expose limitations in those dropping back or stretching out, particularly on ground that remains largely unproven for much of the field.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ziggy's Avenger KTB Selection57/100Modest performer who got off the mark over this trip at Yarmouth last time having shaped as though he needed the run on his two previous starts.
- 2Too Hot To Tango54/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning in ten starts this year.
- 3Court Of Stars50/100Court Of Stars is a modest performer who has shown some consistency with placed efforts on his last two starts over 7f.
- 4Zipwire48/100Modest performer who has been busy this year and showed his best form when winning over this trip earlier in the season.
- 5Upsomdowns48/100Modest performer who has shown little progress since his placed effort on debut.
- 6Twilight Glow45/100Modest performer who has shown little since a placed debut on debut and now steps up to 1m for the first time.
- 7Flyta45/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on his last two starts including a placed effort when stepped up to this trip last time.
- 8Espona Bay44/100Modest performer who has been consistent of late with form figures of 2-2431 and a recent win over 7f.
- 9The Bureau Club37/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts to date with a best effort of fourth on debut.
- 10Little Chief36/100Little Chief shaped with some promise when fourth on debut at Kempton but has failed to build on it in two subsequent runs.
- 11Claytons Kolatonic36/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four runs this year.
The contenders
Ziggy's Avenger KTB Fit 57/100
Ziggy's Avenger is a modest performer who got off the mark over this trip at Yarmouth last time having shaped as though he needed the run on his two previous starts. He steps up in class here while being drawn wide, and the yard's modest record at the track offers little encouragement. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Windsor from 560 runs with an A/E of 0.87, though the jockey Hector Crouch brings a solid 14% strike rate from 258 rides at the venue with an A/E of 1.07. He has had just one run on good to firm ground with no win or place, and this is his first visit to Windsor. Recent form figures read 8-0831 and he carries a KTB Fit Score of 57.
Too Hot To Tango KTB Fit 54/100
Too Hot To Tango is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning across ten starts this year. He drops back to 1m having been placed once at the trip from two attempts, and both the yard and jockey have solid records here. The trainer posts an 11% strike rate at Windsor from 496 runs with an A/E of 0.88, while Tom Marquand has a 15% strike rate from 681 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.9. He has had one run on good to firm with no win or place, and this is his first visit to Windsor. Recent form figures read -32336 and he has a KTB Fit Score of 54.
Court Of Stars KTB Fit 50/100
Court Of Stars is a modest performer who has shown some consistency with placed efforts on his last two starts over 7f. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in his only previous run at 1m, and the small sample on this ground leaves suitability open to question. The yard has a 9% strike rate at Windsor from 35 runs with an A/E of 0.66, while Billy Loughnane posts a 15% record from 81 rides here with an A/E of 0.88. He has been placed once from one run on good to firm and this is his first visit to the track. Recent form figures read 04-122 and he holds a KTB Fit Score of 50.
Zipwire KTB Fit 48/100
Zipwire is a modest performer who has been busy this year and showed his best form when winning over this trip earlier in the season. He drops back from 1m2f having failed to fire last time though he has looked limited on good to firm ground in two attempts. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate at Windsor from 481 runs with an A/E of 0.87, while the jockey is 9% from 35 rides here with an A/E of 0.66. Recent form figures read 1-1235 and he is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 48.
Upsomdowns KTB Fit 48/100
Upsomdowns is a modest performer who has shown little progress since his placed effort on debut. He was well held on his only previous visit to Windsor and has failed to build on a respectable return run last time. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track, the former with a 6% strike rate from 203 runs and an A/E of 0.93, the latter 7% from 111 rides with an A/E of 0.8. He has had one run on good to firm with no win or place, has course form of eighth on his only start here, and his trip stats show only a placed effort at this distance. Recent form figures read 346-28 and he has a KTB Fit Score of 48.
The rest of the field
Twilight GlowKTB Fit 45/100
Twilight Glow is a modest performer who has shown little since a placed debut and now steps up to 1m for the first time. The longer trip is an unknown that could suit or expose further limitations while the wide draw in stall 11 adds another complication, and both trainer and jockey have modest records at Windsor that offer little encouragement.
FlytaKTB Fit 45/100
Flyta is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his last two starts including a placed effort when stepped up to this trip last time. The yard's poor 2% strike rate at Windsor from 62 runs with an A/E of 0.22 is a clear negative while the jockey has a solid record here, and as a lightly raced sort with only five runs he faces a fresh question stepping up in trip again.
Espona BayKTB Fit 44/100
Espona Bay is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with form figures of 2-2431 and a recent win over 7f. He steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question while he showed little on his only previous run here when sixth, and the trainer has a 6% strike rate from 32 runs at Windsor.
The Bureau ClubKTB Fit 37/100
The Bureau Club is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts to date with a best effort of fourth on debut. He steps up to 1m today having failed to make the frame at that trip on his last two outings, and while the jockey has a solid 13% strike rate from 432 rides at Windsor the trainer's small sample here with 0% from four runs makes his record impossible to judge.
Little ChiefKTB Fit 36/100
Little Chief shaped with some promise when fourth on debut at Kempton but has failed to build on it in two subsequent runs. He steps up markedly in trip today as a modest performer who remains lightly raced, and the stable's modest record at Windsor adds little encouragement.
Claytons KolatonicKTB Fit 36/100
Claytons Kolatonic is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four runs this year. He has failed to trouble the judge in three starts at this trip and the yard’s modest strike rate at Windsor offers little encouragement, while the jockey has had too few rides here to draw any firm conclusions.
KTB verdict
Ziggy's Avenger is the KTB Selection. He got off the mark over this trip at Yarmouth last time after shaping as though he needed his two prior runs, and although he steps up in class from a wide draw the jockey's solid course record provides some confidence. The selection's recent improvement gives him the edge on the numbers in a field where most are modest and several have trip or ground questions to answer. The main dangers are Too Hot To Tango, who has been consistent and benefits from a yard and jockey with good track records, and Court Of Stars, who brings recent placed form though the step up in trip and small-sample ground stats leave some doubt.
KTB Selection Ziggy's Avenger
This is the narrative read of the 9:00 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Ziggy's Avenger has the highest KTB Fit Score of 57.
How many runs has Ziggy's Avenger had on good to firm ground?
Ziggy's Avenger has had 1 run on good to firm ground with no win or place.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Windsor for the yard of Too Hot To Tango?
Hughie Morrison has an 11% strike rate at Windsor from 496 runs with an A/E of 0.88.
Which principals have no course form on record at Windsor?
Ziggy's Avenger, Too Hot To Tango, Court Of Stars and Zipwire have no course form on record at Windsor.
What is the recent form of the KTB Selection Ziggy's Avenger?
Ziggy's Avenger's recent form figures read 8-0831.
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