6:15 Ffos Las
This Class 5 restricted maiden fillies’ stakes over the minimum 5f at Ffos Las brings together a small but largely inexperienced field of six two-year-olds. The race is run on good ground and forms part of a Carmarthenshire Hunt card that includes a GBB race element for Bands C and D. KTB’s Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Past Passion on 58, with Leading Raya, Nasserein and Cavan Lady all within striking distance on 53, 51 and 46 respectively, underlining how open the form picture remains with so few runs on the board.
How the race shapes up
With only two of the six runners having shown any real early pace on debut, the race is expected to be run at no more than an average gallop. Past Passion and Nasserein are likely to track the leaders from their middle draws, while Cavan Lady and Defiant Dream could be handy enough from stalls two and one. The key question is whether the drop back to the minimum trip will suit those stepping down from 6f, and whether any of the debutantes can find the necessary speed to challenge the more experienced fillies in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Past Passion KTB Selection58/100Placed second on debut over this trip then ran to a similar level when seventh at Newbury last time.
- 2Leading Raya53/100Leading Raya has only one run to her name so the form picture remains thin.
- 3Nasserein51/100Nasserein showed fair pace on debut over 5.5f and now drops back to the minimum trip having already tried 5f once without success.
- 4Cavan Lady46/100Cavan Lady showed some promise when third on her only start so far.
- 5Defiant Dream43/100Defiant Dream showed little at a big price on debut over 6f.
- 6Tango Hotel39/100Tango Hotel has shown ordinary form in two runs at this trip so far, finishing fourth then fifth without suggesting he is ahead of the average maiden.
The contenders
Past Passion KTB Fit 58/100
Past Passion has already shown her ability with a second on debut over this trip followed by a similar level of performance when seventh at Newbury last time. The Jonathan Portman yard brings a solid 16% strike rate at Ffos Las from 45 runs, while Callum Hutchinson posts an 18% record from 50 rides at the track. She is dropping in class here and has placed once from two starts on good ground, though she has yet to win. With only two career starts the form must be treated with caution, yet she sets a clear standard on what she has shown so far. From draw three she should be able to track the early pace and is the one to beat.
Leading Raya KTB Fit 53/100
Leading Raya has only one run to her name so the form picture remains thin. She drops back from 6f to 5f today which asks a fresh question of her. The Mark Usher yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Ffos Las from 64 runs, but this is offset by the booking of Rose Dawes who boasts a 33% record from a small sample of six rides at the track. She is also dropping in class. With no experience on good ground she remains unproven in the conditions, leaving her with plenty to prove on just the one piece of form.
Nasserein KTB Fit 51/100
Nasserein showed fair pace on debut over 5.5f and now drops back to the minimum trip having already tried 5f once without success. The Archie Watson yard holds a solid 17% strike rate at Ffos Las from 77 runs while Pierre-Louis Jamin posts an 11% record from his nine rides here. She is dropping in class and remains unproven on good ground. With only one run on the board and limited data overall this remains very much a watching brief, though her debut effort suggests she could be competitive if the drop in trip suits.
Cavan Lady KTB Fit 46/100
Cavan Lady showed some promise when third on her only start so far. The Richard Hughes yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Ffos Las from 68 runs while Finley Marsh is operating at 9% from 100 rides here. She is dropping in class and remains unproven on good ground. With just one run on the board and limited data overall this is very much a watching brief, but her placing on debut gives her a foothold in the race and she cannot be entirely dismissed from draw two.
The rest of the field
Defiant DreamKTB Fit 43/100
Defiant Dream showed little at a big price on debut over 6f. Dropping to 5f is a fresh question while first-time headgear is also tried. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate here from 64 runs and the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 22 rides at the track. She is dropping in class and remains unproven on good ground.
Tango HotelKTB Fit 39/100
Tango Hotel has shown ordinary form in two runs at this trip so far, finishing fourth then fifth without suggesting he is ahead of the average maiden. The yard's modest record at Ffos Las adds little confidence, while the 5lb claimer is operating on too few rides here to draw any conclusion. First-time headgear is now fitted on a horse with very little to go on overall. She has one run on good without placing and is dropping in class.
KTB verdict
Past Passion sets the clearest standard on her two starts to date and is taken to land this restricted maiden. The selection has already shown she can handle the minimum trip and benefits from a yard and jockey with strong records at Ffos Las. Her main dangers are likely to come from the debutantes and lightly-raced fillies, with Cavan Lady’s promise on debut and Nasserein’s fair pace on her first outing making them the most obvious threats. Leading Raya and the remainder of the field have more to prove on limited evidence.
KTB Selection Past Passion
This is the narrative read of the 6:15 Ffos Las. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ffos Las racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer-jockey combination at Ffos Las?
Past Passion, with the trainer on 16% strike rate and A/E 1.12 from 45 runs and the jockey on 18% strike rate and A/E 1.56 from 50 rides.
How many of these runners are proven on good ground?
Only Past Passion and Tango Hotel have raced on good ground, with Past Passion placing once from two starts and Tango Hotel showing no win or place from one run.
Which runners are dropping back in trip to 5f?
Leading Raya is dropping back from 6f, while Nasserein is returning to 5f after a run over 5.5f.
How many of the field are wearing headgear for the first time?
Two runners, Defiant Dream and Tango Hotel, are fitted with first-time headgear.
What is the pace profile of the race?
The race is likely to be run at no more than an average gallop, with only two runners having shown real early pace on debut.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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