7:38 Leopardstown
The 7:38 at Leopardstown is a 0-60 handicap over 1m1f on good to firm ground, featuring a maximum field of 25 runners where the KTB Fit scores sit in a relatively tight band between 57 and 30. This points to a race full of limited performers, many with placed form at the track but precious few winning chances on recent evidence. The KTB numbers highlight that course experience, the ability to handle the ground and any first-time headgear could prove influential in what looks an open but modest contest.
How the race shapes up
With a field this large and a good number of runners who tend to race prominently or in mid-division, the pace shape is likely to be on the strong side early on. Several wide-drawn horses such as Slaney Swagger, William F Browne and Max Meridius will need to find a position without using up too much energy, while those drawn lower like Shelbourne Flyer from stall 1 and Not Simple from stall 3 could look to secure a handy spot. The key question is whether the leaders can dictate matters or whether the race will be won from off the pace as the big field stretches out up the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Slaney Swagger KTB Selection57/100Limited horse who has shown some ability here, finishing second on his only visit to Leopardstown.
- 2William F Browne52/100Limited performer who has shown bits of ability here without winning in four runs at Leopardstown.
- 3Medieval Night49/100Medieval Night is a limited horse who has shown his best form at this track, finishing placed on two of his three starts here.
- 4Burford Beauty48/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs this season after a long break.
- 5Max Meridius47/100Limited horse who has shown little in 12 starts and finished fifth on his only previous visit here.
- 6Anchors Away47/100Limited performer who has struggled to make an impact, finishing no better than ninth in five starts this year.
- 7Mullacurry Maid47/100Mullacurry Maid has shown little in four runs to date and sits in the limited category on the figures.
- 8Shelbourne Flyer46/100Shelbourne Flyer has shown fair placed form at this track and brings solid recent efforts including a second last season.
- 9Yquem46/100Limited horse who showed improved form when winning over this trip on good to firm at this track last time.
- 10Morning Approach45/100Morning Approach is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with figures of 0-0050.
- 11Nibras Rainbow45/100Limited sort who has been placed on his last two visits to Leopardstown and is 2 from 7 at this trip.
- 12Famous Enough44/100Limited performer who has shown bits of ability here without winning in four runs at Leopardstown.
- 13Not Simple44/100Limited performer who has shown very little in recent starts and makes his first visit to Leopardstown.
- 14Milverton43/100Limited performer who has struggled this year and arrives with a recent string of modest efforts.
- 15Shahada Ace42/100Shahada Ace has shown little since early promise with recent form reading 8-6990 and looks limited on the balance of his ratings.
- 16Jazz Dreamers41/100Limited performer who has struggled in both runs at Leopardstown and showed little spark when finishing seventh last time.
- 17Alto Sax41/100Limited horse who has shown the odd flash of ability but remains winless after 30 starts.
- 18Sayfa Fad41/100Limited performer who has shown bits of ability at this track, finishing second once from five runs here.
- 19Folk Warrior37/100Limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest form in eight starts and arrives here dropping in trip.
- 20Lady Crossing35/100Limited performer who has shown very little in ten runs and finished ninth on her only visit to this track.
- 21Master Garvey32/100Master Garvey is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability at this track without winning in five runs here.
- 22Half Nutz31/100Half Nutz is a limited performer who has been placed three times from six runs at Leopardstown without winning.
- 23Rushford31/100Limited performer who has struggled this year with a string of poor efforts including three finishes in the 0s.
- 24La Campanella31/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and was well held when eighth on her only previous visit to Leopardstown.
- 25Quarry Stone30/100Quarry Stone has shown very little in seven runs to date and sits right at the bottom of the ratings for a limited performer.
The contenders
Slaney Swagger KTB Fit 57/100
Slaney Swagger is a limited horse who has shown some ability here, finishing second on his only visit to Leopardstown. He has placed on good to firm and at this trip though without winning either, and his recent form has been poor. The trainer records a solid 20% strike rate at the track while the jockey is operating at just 3%. From a wide draw in stall 19 he will need to settle early but his placed course form gives him a foothold in a race where many bring limited claims.
William F Browne KTB Fit 52/100
William F Browne is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability here without winning in four runs at Leopardstown. Placed twice at today's trip and handled good to firm ground last season, but the recent form of 97-037 suggests he is struggling to find his best. First-time headgear is now applied while stepping back up in distance. The trainer's 5% strike rate at the track and the jockey's 13% record here offer mixed signals, yet the headgear could spark improvement from a wide draw.
Medieval Night KTB Fit 49/100
Medieval Night is a limited horse who has shown his best form at this track, finishing placed on two of his three starts here. He steps up in trip today having been placed twice over this distance without winning, and he has handled good to firm ground competitively on his one run. The trainer has a 6% strike rate from 282 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey is on 7% from 168 rides at the course. His course placings make him one of the more interesting runners in a field short on solid recent form.
Burford Beauty KTB Fit 48/100
Burford Beauty is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs this season after a long break. Trainer at Leopardstown has a 6% strike rate from 440 runs while jockey Gary Carroll is on 7% from 621 rides here so neither brings strong local form. Steps up to 1m1f for the first time today having been unproven on good to firm ground as well. Connections will hope the return to handicap company and the new trip can unlock more, but he has a bit to prove on balance.
Max Meridius KTB Fit 47/100
Max Meridius is a limited horse who has shown little in 12 starts and finished fifth on his only previous visit here. First-time headgear is reached for now but the yard's modest 8% strike rate at Leopardstown and the jockey's 4% record at the track offer no encouragement. Trip and ground look no better than fair for him on what he has produced so far. From stall 25 he faces a stiff task in a big field, though the headgear may at least help him settle better.
The rest of the field
Anchors AwayKTB Fit 47/100
Anchors Away is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact, finishing no better than ninth in five starts this year. Dropping back from 1m3f to an untried 1m1f poses a fresh question while a wide draw in stall 17 adds to the difficulties. Unproven on good to firm ground and a poor run here last time complete a picture of a horse with plenty to find.
Mullacurry MaidKTB Fit 47/100
Mullacurry Maid has shown little in four runs to date and sits in the limited category on the figures. She was well held when fifth over 7f here on return and now steps up in trip for the first time which asks a fresh question. The yard operates at a 5% strike rate from 94 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey is on 6% from 663 rides here.
Shelbourne FlyerKTB Fit 46/100
Shelbourne Flyer has shown fair placed form at this track and brings solid recent efforts including a second last season. The limited class read and step up to 1m1f for the first time pose fresh questions while the yard’s modest 10% strike rate at Leopardstown adds no strong home advantage. No experience on good to firm ground leaves that side unproven.
YquemKTB Fit 46/100
Yquem is a limited horse who showed improved form when winning over this trip on good to firm at this track last time. That sole course success from one run is a clear positive and he has also won at this distance. Trainer holds an 11% strike rate here from 66 runs while jockey is operating at 8% from 1201 rides.
Morning ApproachKTB Fit 45/100
Morning Approach is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with figures of 0-0050. He has won once from nine runs at Leopardstown and holds a 1-4 record on good to firm ground so the track and conditions look fine. The yard and jockey both have modest records here and he steps up in trip today which adds an unknown element.
Nibras RainbowKTB Fit 45/100
Nibras Rainbow is a limited sort who has been placed on his last two visits to Leopardstown and is 2 from 7 at this trip. He acts on good to firm but has never won on it. The yard and jockey both operate at a 5% strike rate here.
Famous EnoughKTB Fit 44/100
Famous Enough is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability here without winning in four runs at Leopardstown. He has placed on good to firm and at today's trip but his recent form is ordinary and the wide draw in stall 23 is far from ideal. Trainer strikes at 8% here while the jockey's 10% rate is respectable.
Not SimpleKTB Fit 44/100
Not Simple is a limited performer who has shown very little in recent starts and makes his first visit to Leopardstown. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track and the yard's 4% strike rate from 47 runs offers no encouragement. Drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried while his sole run on good to firm ground produced no reward.
MilvertonKTB Fit 43/100
Milverton is a limited performer who has struggled this year and arrives with a recent string of modest efforts. First time headgear is now tried as he steps up in trip having shown little at 1m, though the yard does have a solid strike rate here. Jockey record at the track is poor and the horse remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Shahada AceKTB Fit 42/100
Shahada Ace has shown little since early promise with recent form reading 8-6990 and looks limited on the balance of his ratings. He steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact in one previous try at this distance while the trainer and jockey both have modest records at Leopardstown. The horse is unproven on good to firm ground and makes his first appearance here so plenty of unknowns remain.
Jazz DreamersKTB Fit 41/100
Jazz Dreamers is a limited performer who has struggled in both runs at Leopardstown and showed little spark when finishing seventh last time. Drops back to a trip he has won at before though that success is now some way back and the wide draw in stall 15 is another negative on this good to firm ground. Trainer records a modest 8% strike rate from 89 runs here.
Alto SaxKTB Fit 41/100
Alto Sax is a limited horse who has shown the odd flash of ability but remains winless after 30 starts. Placed on his only previous try at this trip and has gone well at Leopardstown before yet drops back from 1m4f with no experience of good to firm ground. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates here.
Sayfa FadKTB Fit 41/100
Sayfa Fad is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability at this track, finishing second once from five runs here. Steps up in trip today having been placed at 1m1f without winning, though he is unproven on good to firm ground. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Leopardstown.
Folk WarriorKTB Fit 37/100
Folk Warrior is a limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest form in eight starts and arrives here dropping in trip. First run at Leopardstown adds an unknown element while the yard's 4% strike rate from 90 runs at the track offers little encouragement. Unproven on good to firm ground and the jockey's 8% record from 578 rides here is also modest.
Lady CrossingKTB Fit 35/100
Lady Crossing is a limited performer who has shown very little in ten runs and finished ninth on her only visit to this track. Trainer has a modest 4% strike-rate here from 52 runs while the 5lb claimer is operating at a fair 10% from 70 rides. Steps up in trip on ground she has never tried and with that recent form line there are too many negatives.
Master GarveyKTB Fit 32/100
Master Garvey is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability at this track without winning in five runs here. He has been placed on good to firm ground and at today's trip though his recent form is patchy and he now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 14 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey operates at a 5% strike rate from 64 rides here.
Half NutzKTB Fit 31/100
Half Nutz is a limited performer who has been placed three times from six runs at Leopardstown without winning. He has shown some competitiveness on good to firm ground and at this trip but his recent form has been patchy and the yard is struggling at this track with a zero per cent strike rate from 27 runs. The 10 lb claimer is hard to assess here with only two rides at the course.
RushfordKTB Fit 31/100
Rushford is a limited performer who has struggled this year with a string of poor efforts including three finishes in the 0s. Steps up in trip today having looked stretched at a mile last time and his sole previous try at this distance brought no joy. Jockey has a modest 8% strike rate from a huge sample at Leopardstown while the yard has too few runs here to judge.
La CampanellaKTB Fit 31/100
La Campanella is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and was well held when eighth on her only previous visit to Leopardstown. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track and the jockey's complete lack of success here from 56 rides add to the negatives. She steps up in trip with no experience of good to firm ground so there are too many unknowns.
Quarry StoneKTB Fit 30/100
Quarry Stone has shown very little in seven runs to date and sits right at the bottom of the ratings for a limited performer. The stable's poor record at Leopardstown offers no encouragement and nor does the jockey's blank score from his 11 rides here. Stepping up to 1m1f asks a fresh question while the going remains an unknown on this small sample.
KTB verdict
Slaney Swagger is the KTB Selection. He brings the best fit in a race of limited performers, with placed form at the track on his only start here and the ability to handle good to firm ground. His recent form is modest yet the trainer's 20% strike rate at Leopardstown provides encouragement, and in a contest where many rivals have plenty to prove he can put his course experience to good use. The main dangers are Medieval Night, whose two placed efforts at the track make him a solid each-way alternative, and Yquem, who arrives on the back of a course-and-distance success on good to firm. William F Browne with first-time headgear and Burford Beauty stepping up in trip are others who could feature if the race falls their way.
KTB Selection Slaney Swagger
This is the narrative read of the 7:38 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
Slaney Swagger finished second on his only visit to Leopardstown while Medieval Night has been placed on two of three starts here.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
William F Browne, Max Meridius and Milverton are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse won over this course and distance on its most recent start?
Yquem showed improved form when winning over this trip on good to firm at this track last time.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Leopardstown for the yard of the selection?
The trainer of Slaney Swagger records a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.69 from five runs.
Which runners are completely unproven on good to firm ground?
Burford Beauty, Anchors Away, Mullacurry Maid, Shelbourne Flyer, Not Simple, Milverton, Shahada Ace, Alto Sax, Sayfa Fad, Folk Warrior, Lady Crossing and La Campanella are all unproven on good to firm.
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