3:30 Navan
The 3:30 at Navan is a competitive 5f handicap for three-year-olds on good to firm ground, with a field of ten runners where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The Right One heads the KTB rankings on 56, closely followed by All Hail, Boston Max and Cashel Blue all on 55, suggesting a race with little between the principals on paper. Recent form is mixed, several runners arrive in first-time headgear, and with most unproven on the surface the going adds an extra layer of uncertainty.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a strongly-run sprint, with several prominent racers and a couple of front-runners likely to contest the lead early. All Hail from stall one and Boston Max drawn in three are both expected to be forward, while The Right One can track from a handy draw in five. The key question is whether the pace collapses or sets up for a closer, given that a few of the field prefer to come from off the speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1The Right One KTB Selection56/100
- 2All Hail55/100
- 3Boston Max55/100
- 4Cashel Blue55/100
- 5Love Bomb47/100
- 6White Smoke47/100
- 7Another Nice'day46/100
- 8Lumiere Des Etoile46/100
- 9Amerilis43/100
- 10Mini Cotai38/100
The contenders
The Right One KTB Fit 56/100
The Right One tops the KTB Fit ratings on 56 and is the selection. A 3-year-old with recent form figures of 3240-1, he showed his ability when breaking his maiden last time out. The yard has a 6% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.93 from 124 runs while Ronan Whelan has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.76 from 351 rides. He has been placed once from one run on good to firm and ran once at the course when fifth. First-time headgear is now applied and he is expected to be prominent from his draw in five.
All Hail KTB Fit 55/100
All Hail is rated 55 on the KTB Fit scale. This 3-year-old has form figures of 082-8 and showed placed form when second on his only previous run at Navan. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.04 from 328 runs and Ben Coen has a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.79 from 251 rides. He has yet to race on good to firm so the surface remains unproven. Drawn in stall one he is likely to be on the pace and that early position could be an asset in a strongly-run sprint.
Boston Max KTB Fit 55/100
Boston Max also sits on a KTB Fit of 55. His recent form reads 00-112 and he arrives in excellent order having won his last two starts. Gordon Elliott has a 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.9 from 1452 runs while Chris Hayes has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.71 from 727 rides. The colt has no experience of good to firm ground and no course form on record. First-time headgear is now fitted and from draw three he should be prominent in a race where pace looks to be on.
Cashel Blue KTB Fit 55/100
Cashel Blue is another on 55 in the KTB Fit. This 3-year-old has form figures of 7051 and showed his ability with a win last time. The trainer has a 12% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.05 from 196 runs and W J Lee has an 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.9 from 551 rides. He has never raced on good to firm so the ground is an unknown. He has one run at the course when fifth and from a wide draw in nine he will need to be ridden to get a good position.
Love Bomb KTB Fit 47/100
Love Bomb is rated 47 on the KTB Fit. A 3-year-old with form figures of 047080 he has been struggling for consistency of late. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.82 from 333 runs and Leigh Roche has an 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 1 from 325 rides. He has no experience of good to firm ground and no course form. First-time headgear is now applied and from the widest draw in ten he will need to settle and come from off the pace.
The rest of the field
White SmokeKTB Fit 47/100
White Smoke is rated 47 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 54-904. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.89 from 76 runs while the jockey has a 0% strike rate here with an A/E of 0 from 9 rides. He has no experience of good to firm ground and has one run at the course when fifth.
Another Nice'dayKTB Fit 46/100
Another Nice'day is rated 46 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 50-006. First-time headgear is now fitted. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.99 from 21 runs and the jockey has a 50% strike rate here with an A/E of 8.87 from 2 rides. He has no experience of good to firm ground and has two runs at the course when eighth and eleventh.
Lumiere Des EtoileKTB Fit 46/100
Lumiere Des Etoile is rated 46 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 6045-0. First-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from 40 runs and the jockey has a 3% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.63 from 492 rides. He has no experience of good to firm ground and no course form on record.
AmerilisKTB Fit 43/100
Amerilis is rated 43 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 6-4926. First-time headgear is now fitted. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from 6 runs and the jockey has a 3% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.51 from 118 rides. She has one run on good to firm when unplaced and no course form on record.
Mini CotaiKTB Fit 38/100
Mini Cotai is rated 38 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 765290. First-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.6 from 328 runs and the jockey has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.96 from 104 rides. He has no experience of good to firm ground and has one run at the course when twelfth.
KTB verdict
The Right One is the KTB Selection. He tops the Fit ratings, showed clear ability when winning last time, and the first-time headgear could sharpen him further while his prominent run-style looks ideal given the expected pace. All Hail, Boston Max and Cashel Blue are the main dangers, each rated just a point behind on Fit and bringing their own strengths whether that be course placings, recent wins or strong trainer form at Navan. The race should be run at a good clip which will test the unproven ones on the ground and those coming from further back.
KTB Selection The Right One
This is the narrative read of the 3:30 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on good to firm but has course placings?
All Hail has no runs on good to firm but finished second on his only previous run at Navan.
Who is the selection and what is its KTB Fit score?
The Right One is the selection with a KTB Fit of 56.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
The Right One, Boston Max and Love Bomb are all wearing first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Navan among those represented?
Gordon Elliott has a 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.9 from 1452 runs.
What is the expected pace shape and its implication?
The pace shape is strongly-run with several forward runners, which should suit those with prominent run-styles such as All Hail and Boston Max.
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