2:47 Naas
This Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap over 5f 205y at Naas on good ground brings together an 11-runner field where most runners are rated in the fair-to-modest bracket. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Amiata on 65, with Red Evolution next on 59 and then a cluster around the mid-40s to mid-50s, suggesting a competitive race in which course form, trip suitability and trainer trends will carry weight. Overall the numbers point to a race that may be decided by how well the principals handle an uncontested lead up front and whether any of the hold-up performers can bridge the gap on good ground.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse is expected to secure an uncontested lead with little pressure from the rest of the field. Most of the field, including all five principals, are hold-up types who usually produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any of them can close effectively enough to reel in the front-runner over this stiff 5f on good ground. Spodo Komodo is the only prominent runner and could press forward, but the shape still favours the uncontested leader making it a stiff task for those racing from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Amiata KTB Selection65/100Amiata is a fair 3-year-old with a solid course record at Naas, where she has won one of her four starts.
- 2Red Evolution59/100Red Evolution is a fair performer who has been below form on his last two starts after a solid placed effort at the start of the season.
- 3Gavoo54/100Fair performer who has run well at this track before but is still winless after ten starts.
- 4Moltophino48/100Fair performer who has placed three times from five runs at Naas without winning.
- 5Smoke Them Out48/100Smoke Them Out is a fair performer who has shown consistent competitiveness on good ground, placing twice from nine starts, and has a solid course record here w…
- 6Gotta Catch'em All48/100Modest performer who has won both starts at this trip and landed his only previous visit to Naas.
- 7Leveraging48/100Fair performer who showed his best when winning a 5f maiden at this track last season.
- 8Spodo Komodo47/100Fair performer who ran well when second over C&D on his penultimate start.
- 9Clonmacash41/100Clonmacash is a modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent months without winning.
- 10Flaming Rib40/100Modest performer who has won five times at this trip but has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 11Lohoobb40/100Lohoobb is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing second twice from four attempts.
The contenders
Amiata KTB Fit 65/100
Amiata is a fair 3-year-old with a solid course record at Naas, where she has won one of her four starts. She has shown consistent form this year, including a win and a fourth in her last two runs, and handles good ground well with one win and two places from four attempts. The step up in trip today raises a question but she has already won at this distance. From draw 9 she is likely to be held up and produce her effort late, a run-style that could be tested by the uncontested lead up front. The trainer has a 16% strike rate at Naas with an A/E of 0.96 from 768 runs while Colin Keane brings a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.95 from 752 rides. Recent form of -55141 underlines her competitiveness and she emerges as the KTB Selection.
Red Evolution KTB Fit 59/100
Red Evolution is a fair performer who has been below form on his last two starts after a solid placed effort at the start of the season. He has already run once at Naas, finishing fourth, while the trainer holds a 12% strike rate here from 262 runs. Dropping back to 5f is a new question today though he has shown placed form at the trip before, and first-time headgear is now applied. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 2, he will need to find a way to close on what is likely to be an uncontested leader. The combination of trainer M D O'Callaghan and jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle shows a 23% strike rate with an A/E of 1.42 and a small positive LSP. His recent form reads 21-407 and he remains capable on his best days.
Gavoo KTB Fit 54/100
Gavoo is a fair performer who has run well at this track before but is still winless after ten starts. Dropping back to 5f is a plus as he has already won over the trip, though the first-time headgear suggests connections are looking for extra help. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Naas from 208 runs is another negative. Held up and usually producing his effort late from draw 4, he faces the same challenge as the other closers against a likely clear leader. Trainer and jockey combined show a 13% strike rate with an A/E of 1.03 while his placed efforts on good ground and course form of 2nd and 4th add some encouragement. Recent form of 1-4925 reflects a horse that can be competitive without quite getting the job done.
Moltophino KTB Fit 48/100
Moltophino is a fair performer who has placed three times from five runs at Naas without winning. He drops back to 5f having won at the trip earlier in his career though his last two efforts were poor. First-time headgear is now applied. Usually held up and producing his effort late from the outside draw of 11, he will be among those asked to close on a clear leader. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Naas with an A/E of 1.59 from a small sample while Chris Hayes has a 9% strike rate at the track. His going record shows one win from 12 on good with five places and course form includes three placings. Recent form of 50-979 indicates he needs to bounce back.
Smoke Them Out KTB Fit 48/100
Smoke Them Out is a fair performer who has shown consistent competitiveness on good ground, placing twice from nine starts, and has a solid course record here with a second and a fifth from two runs. He steps up in trip today having won three times from ten starts at this distance, though his recent form of 160203 suggests he can be inconsistent. The trainer's modest 2% strike rate from 277 runs at Naas is a clear negative. Usually held up, though with medium confidence on the run-style, from draw 10 he will be another looking to come from off the pace. The jockey's 11% strike rate at Naas with a strong A/E of 2.31 from nine rides offers a positive note in an otherwise uphill assignment.
The rest of the field
Gotta Catch'em AllKTB Fit 48/100
Gotta Catch'em All is a modest performer who has won both starts at this trip and landed his only previous visit to Naas. Recent form has been patchy but he did win two of his last three starts and clearly handles good ground. First-time headgear is now added while the trainer's modest 6% strike rate at the track is worth noting. Usually held up from draw 1, his recent form reads 769611.
LeveragingKTB Fit 48/100
Leveraging is a fair performer who showed his best when winning a 5f maiden at this track last season. Dropping back to his winning trip looks a plus but he was well held on reappearance and needs to improve on that effort. Trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Naas from a large sample. He is usually held up from draw 3 with no runs on good ground and recent form of 0961-0.
Spodo KomodoKTB Fit 47/100
Spodo Komodo is a fair performer who ran well when second over C&D on his penultimate start. Dropping back from 7f to a trip he has already won over looks a sensible move though he was well held on his latest outing. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Naas adds a note of caution. He is the sole front-runner in the field and his recent form reads 431-02.
ClonmacashKTB Fit 41/100
Clonmacash is a modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent months without winning. He has run just once at Naas and his record on good ground is ordinary with only one win from 15 starts. First-time headgear is now tried on a horse that has won at today's trip but looks vulnerable again from stall 8. Recent form is 535437.
Flaming RibKTB Fit 40/100
Flaming Rib is a modest performer who has won five times at this trip but has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has run only once at Naas and finished eighth, while the yard's 7% strike rate from 306 runs at the track offers little encouragement. First-time headgear is now fitted on good ground where he has a solid record of four wins from 14 starts. Recent form reads 40-548.
LohoobbKTB Fit 40/100
Lohoobb is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing second twice from four attempts. The yard's record at Naas is poor at 2% from 130 runs, though W J Lee brings a solid course record of his own. With only seven career runs the going remains an unknown. Usually held up from draw 6 with recent form of 4-5252.
KTB verdict
Amiata stands out as the KTB Selection on the basis of her fair level, solid course record at Naas where she has already won, and proven ability on good ground. She has shown consistent form this season and, despite the step up in trip, has already won at this distance, making her well equipped to handle the likely uncontested lead if she can produce her effort late enough. The main dangers are Red Evolution, who brings placed form at the trip and first-time headgear, and Gavoo, who has run well at the track and drops back to a winning distance. Moltophino and Smoke Them Out add depth from the hold-up brigade while the likes of Gotta Catch'em All and Spodo Komodo cannot be entirely dismissed on their best efforts.
KTB Selection Amiata
This is the narrative read of the 2:47 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Amiata the KTB Selection?
She is a fair 3-year-old with a solid course record at Naas where she has won one of four starts, has shown consistent form this year including a win and a fourth in her last two runs, and handles good ground well while having already won at this distance.
How is the race likely to be run?
A lone leader is expected to secure an uncontested lead with little pressure, making it a stiff task for the majority of hold-up performers to close the gap.
Which horse is the only front-runner?
Spodo Komodo is the sole front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
What are the trainer's strike rates at Naas for the top two in the KTB Fit rankings?
G M Lyons has a 16% strike rate at Naas with an A/E of 0.96 from 768 runs; M D O'Callaghan has a 12% strike rate with an A/E of 0.9 from 262 runs.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Red Evolution, Gavoo, Moltophino, Gotta Catch'em All, Clonmacash and Flaming Rib are all fitted with first-time headgear.
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