1:45 Curragh
This 7f juvenile fillies race at the Curragh on good to firm ground features an 18-strong field where experience is at a premium. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Ibelieveicanfly heading the numbers on 56. Several lightly raced or debutant runners make up the remainder, underlining how much remains unknown about their true levels on this straight track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with only thin evidence of a confirmed front-runner. Sword Of State holds the most forward run-style on limited evidence and could attempt to make it or race prominently from stall 16, though the wide draw may complicate matters. Most of the principals, including the selection, are held-up types who will be produced late, so the key question is whether the race will develop enough pace to allow closers to operate effectively on this good to firm surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ibelieveicanfly KTB Selection56/100Placed twice from three starts including a second over this trip at the track last time.
- 2Alpine Wedding52/100Placed third on debut here over this trip then ran to a similar level when fifth at Leopardstown.
- 3Voice Of You52/100Lightly raced colt who shaped okay when fifth on debut over this trip.
- 4Big Bessy51/100Big Bessy is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 5Torvella50/100Torvella is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
- 6Sword Of State49/100Won a maiden over this trip on debut then ran no sort of race when stepped up in class at this track last time.
- 7Rathbran Lady49/100Rathbran Lady is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on.
- 8Exceptionally49/100Exceptionally has shown little in two starts so far, finishing third on debut then well held over 1m at this track.
- 9Popped48/100Popped is a first-time runner from the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard which operates at a 9% strike rate from 223 runs at the Curragh.
- 10Speckles48/100Speckles showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut here over this trip.
- 11Admired Beauty48/100Admired Beauty showed promise when second on debut here over this trip on her only start to date.
- 12Green Sparkle45/100Green Sparkle showed little on debut when finishing ninth over this trip at the Curragh.
- 13Suomenlinna45/100Suomenlinna is a newcomer from a yard that operates at an 11% strike rate from over 1300 runs at the Curragh.
- 14Chattering Classes45/100Chattering Classes is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 9% strike rate from 1431 runs at the Curragh.
- 15Miss Hong Kong44/100Miss Hong Kong is a newcomer from the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard.
- 16Siege Of Tyre44/100Siege Of Tyre has shown little in two starts to date, finishing eighth on debut and then again last time out.
- 17Katiraya44/100Katiraya showed little on her sole start to date when finishing eighth.
- 18Darlene43/100Darlene is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
The contenders
Ibelieveicanfly KTB Fit 56/100
Ibelieveicanfly brings the strongest profile into the race having been placed twice from three starts, most recently finishing second over this trip at the Curragh. The yard and jockey combination operates at a high level here, with Aidan O'Brien posting a 19% strike rate from thousands of runs at the track and Ryan Moore showing a 30% record. First-time headgear is now applied to a horse whose form remains modest on a small-sample profile, though the placed efforts at this venue add encouragement. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be suited if the race develops a genuine pace. Her course record reads 4th and 2nd with no win to date.
Alpine Wedding KTB Fit 52/100
Alpine Wedding has shown placed form on both starts, finishing third on debut here over this trip before running to a similar level when fifth at Leopardstown. The form looks modest and the wide draw in stall 15 adds difficulty on this straight course. Trainer P Twomey and jockey W J Lee both have established records at the Curragh, though the small sample for this combination means much remains guesswork. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has been competitive on good to firm ground without winning. Her sole course visit resulted in a placed effort with no win.
Voice Of You KTB Fit 52/100
Voice Of You shaped with some promise when finishing fifth on debut over this trip, though he remains a lightly raced colt with only one piece of form to go on. The small sample means little is known about his true level or how he will handle good to firm ground, on which he is unproven. Trainer M C Hickey has no previous runners at the Curragh while jockey Gary Carroll operates at a modest 7% strike rate from a big sample of rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late on limited evidence, he will need to improve to figure. He has no course form on record.
Big Bessy KTB Fit 51/100
Big Bessy is a newcomer with no racecourse experience, so pedigree and sales background will decide her chance. The yard has a modest 3% strike-rate at the Curragh from 31 runs while Colin Keane has a solid 13% record from over 1200 rides here. With low data confidence any judgement remains tentative at this stage. She has no course win on record and the wide draw in stall 17 adds another layer of difficulty. By Inns Of Court, her overall profile carries limited information.
Torvella KTB Fit 50/100
Torvella is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on, leaving pedigree and sales background as the main pointers. The yard's 7% strike-rate from 391 runs at the Curragh shows they can get one ready first time, though the low data confidence means any assessment is tentative at best. Trainer and jockey Andrew Slattery combine with a 9% record from 1376 runs together. She has no course win on record and is by Torquator Tasso, whose progeny have shown a 0% overall win rate from a tiny sample. Stall 1 could at least offer a positive.
The rest of the field
Sword Of StateKTB Fit 49/100
Sword Of State won a maiden over this trip on debut then ran no sort of race when stepped up in class at this track last time. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Curragh from a big sample offers little encouragement and stall 16 looks no help either on what is still very limited evidence.
Rathbran LadyKTB Fit 49/100
Rathbran Lady is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here but the data confidence remains low so any conclusions are tentative. Mulvany operates at a 6% strike rate from 279 runs at the Curragh while Joyce has his 3 lb claim.
ExceptionallyKTB Fit 49/100
Exceptionally has shown little in two starts so far, finishing third on debut then well held over 1m at this track. Dropping back to 7f asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 18 is far from ideal on this straight course. Trainer at Curragh holds a strong 19% strike rate from thousands of runs but the jockey is operating at a modest 6% here.
PoppedKTB Fit 48/100
Popped is a first-time runner from the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard which operates at a 9% strike rate from 223 runs at the Curragh. The 2-year-old cost a useful sum at the sales and carries a pedigree that suggests he should handle this trip on good to firm ground. With only pedigree and connections to go on the level of ability remains completely unknown.
SpecklesKTB Fit 48/100
Speckles showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut here over this trip. The yard has a solid 19% strike-rate at the Curragh from a huge sample of runners. Both the 5lb claimer and the small sample size mean this lightly-raced colt is hard to assess with any confidence.
Admired BeautyKTB Fit 48/100
Admired Beauty showed promise when second on debut here over this trip on her only start to date. The filly has a placed run at the course and trip but remains lightly raced with only one piece of form to go on. Bolger has a 9% strike-rate at Curragh from a huge sample while McDonogh sits on 8%.
Green SparkleKTB Fit 45/100
Green Sparkle showed little on debut when finishing ninth over this trip at the Curragh. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate from a big sample here while the jockey operates at 7% from 318 rides. With only one run on the board and no meaningful going or trip data, this remains very much an unknown.
SuomenlinnaKTB Fit 45/100
Suomenlinna is a newcomer from a yard that operates at an 11% strike rate from over 1300 runs at the Curragh. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien stable knows the track well enough, though the A/E of 0.84 shows they are slightly under-performing here. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background which have yet to be tested.
Chattering ClassesKTB Fit 45/100
Chattering Classes is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 9% strike rate from 1431 runs at the Curragh. The low data confidence means the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background, with no racecourse evidence available. Connections are capable but the debut nature and modest trainer course record make this a watching brief.
Miss Hong KongKTB Fit 44/100
Miss Hong Kong is a newcomer from the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard. The trainer's modest 9% strike-rate at Curragh from a big sample is worth noting, as is jockey Gavin Ryan's 5% record here from even more rides. With no racecourse form and only low data confidence, the assessment rests entirely on her sales and pedigree background.
Siege Of TyreKTB Fit 44/100
Siege Of Tyre has shown little in two starts to date, finishing eighth on debut and then again last time out. The step up to 7f asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 13 is no help on this track. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here and the yard's recent form offers little encouragement.
KatirayaKTB Fit 44/100
Katiraya showed little on her sole start to date when finishing eighth. The Weld yard has a modest 9% strike rate at the Curragh from a huge sample and Hayes is similarly on 7% here. With only one run on the clock and limited data overall this is very much a watching brief.
DarleneKTB Fit 43/100
Darlene is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The trainer has an 8 percent strike rate from 50 runs at Curragh. Pedigree and sales background are the only other pointers available in what remains a low-confidence profile.
KTB verdict
Ibelieveicanfly stands out as the KTB Selection. She has already shown placed form at this track over the trip and now receives the benefit of first-time headgear from a yard and jockey that both excel at the Curragh. Her held-up style should be suited if the tentative pace materialises into a proper test. The main dangers are likely to come from Admired Beauty, who showed promise when second here on debut, and Alpine Wedding, who has placed form at the venue but faces the challenge of stall 15. Several debutants add uncertainty to the outcome.
KTB Selection Ibelieveicanfly
This is the narrative read of the 1:45 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course form among the principals?
Ibelieveicanfly, who has been placed twice at the Curragh including a second over this trip last time.
How many of the principals are debutants?
Two of the principals are debutants: Big Bessy and Torvella.
What is the trainer strike rate at the Curragh for the yard of the selection?
Aidan O'Brien has a 19% strike rate at Curragh from 4427 runs.
Which runner is the only one with a confirmed front-running style?
Sword Of State tends to make the running or race on the pace on limited evidence.
What is the going record for the selection?
Ibelieveicanfly has had one run on good to firm with no win or place.
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