4:09 Leicester
The 4:09 at Leicester is a Class 5 fillies' handicap over an extended mile on good to firm ground, featuring a compact field of five where the KTB Fit Scores point to a fairly tight contest at the top. Cancelled tops the ratings on 66 with a course-and-distance success to its name, while the three-year-olds Spiritoftheblues and Kaori follow on 57 and 52 respectively, both showing recent placed form. The race lacks an obvious front-runner, which adds a layer of tactical importance on a track where the yard and jockey stats carry extra weight.
How the race shapes up
With no horse obviously wanting the lead, the pace shape suggests a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the field, including the top three, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late off what is likely to be a modest gallop. The key question is whether any of the prominent racers can seize an uncontested position early or whether the race will collapse in the final furlong, rewarding those delivered with perfect timing from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Cancelled KTB Selection66/100Cancelled is a fair handicapper who has won both starts at this trip and on this track, including a clear success here last time out.
- 2Spiritoftheblues57/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with placed efforts on his last three starts including over this trip.
- 3Kaori52/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning.
- 4Tamzan49/100Modest performer who has shown consistent form this year and ran creditably when second over course and distance on his only visit here.
- 5Venetian Sky47/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at a lower level without progressing.
The contenders
Cancelled KTB Fit 66/100
Cancelled is a fair handicapper who has won both starts at this trip and on this track, including a clear success here last time out. He possesses a solid record on good to firm ground, with two wins from four starts, and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition after a mixed bag of recent form that ended with a win in the -43541 sequence. The yard continue in reasonable form at Leicester, boasting an 18% strike rate and A/E of 1.07 from 11 runs, while Kevin Stott knows the place well with a 16% strike rate and A/E of 0.9 from 74 rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the five-year-old is drawn in stall four and looks to hold all the aces on these terms. The combination of course winning form and the addition of headgear for the first time makes this a big day for the Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill stable.
Spiritoftheblues KTB Fit 57/100
Spiritoftheblues is a modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with placed efforts on his last three starts, including over this trip. He has been placed once from two runs at Leicester but still lacks a win anywhere, with the 8-7232 form figures underlining steady rather than sparkling progress. Trainer David O'Meara has a solid 15% strike rate at the track from 192 runs and an A/E of 0.91, while jockey Mark Winn boasts a 36% strike rate and A/E of 2.55 from a small but effective 11 rides here. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the three-year-old is drawn in stall two and steps out on good to firm ground where he has been competitive without winning in three attempts. The yard and jockey combination adds some appeal, yet the absence of a victory remains the central concern.
Kaori KTB Fit 52/100
Kaori is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning, as the 33-635 figures suggest. She finished third on her only previous run here and now steps up in trip today having last been seen over 7f, with first-time headgear now applied. The yard are in solid form at this track, recording a 23% strike rate and A/E of 1.01 from 87 runs, while Jack Callan has a 29% strike rate and A/E of 1.98 from 17 rides at Leicester. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the three-year-old is drawn widest in stall five and has yet to win or place in three runs on good to firm. The placed course form offers some hope, but the step up in distance and lack of a win make this a stiffer task.
The rest of the field
TamzanKTB Fit 49/100
TAMZAN is a modest performer who has shown consistent form this year and ran creditably when second over course and distance on his only visit here. Dropping in class and back in trip after his latest run over 1m2f, he has already won at today's distance and is prominent in his running style, usually racing handily. The trainer holds a solid 22% strike rate at Leicester from 115 runs and an A/E of 1.14, while the three-year-old has been competitive without winning in three starts on good to firm.
Venetian SkyKTB Fit 47/100
VENETIAN SKY is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at a lower level without progressing, as the 0-3445 figures indicate. Stepping up in trip today having last run over 7f, with only one previous try at this distance that brought no success, the three-year-old is held up in his running. William Haggas has an 18% strike rate from 219 runs at Leicester and an A/E of 0.77, while the yard and jockey are dropping in class; he has no course form on record and showed little on his sole start on good to firm.
KTB verdict
Cancelled looks to hold all the aces in a race that could develop into a tactical battle from a steady pace. The selection has already won twice at this trip and track, including a clear-cut success here last time, boasts a strong record on good to firm, and now tries first-time headgear for a yard that knows Leicester well. Spiritoftheblues and Kaori bring recent placed form and course experience but both remain winless, while Tamzan and Venetian Sky are dropping in class yet face questions over whether they can raise their game sufficiently. The main dangers are likely to come from those delivered late off what should be a modest gallop, but Cancelled has the strongest blend of course, distance and ground credentials.
KTB Selection Cancelled
This is the narrative read of the 4:09 Leicester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leicester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won twice at this trip and track?
Cancelled has won both starts at this trip and on this track, including a clear success here last time out.
How many of the field are wearing headgear for the first time?
Two horses are wearing first-time headgear: Cancelled and Kaori.
Which runner is dropping in class from a higher level?
Both Tamzan and Venetian Sky are dropping in class.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at Leicester among the riders in this race?
Mark Winn has a 36% strike rate at Leicester with an A/E of 2.55 from 11 rides.
What is the pace shape for this Leicester handicap?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
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