7:57 Ballinrobe
This 16-runner maiden hurdle at Ballinrobe over 2m6½f on good ground looks a competitive affair with plenty of lightly raced sorts and several yard/jockey combinations that know the track. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Keep Em Quite heading the numbers on 62, followed by a cluster in the low-to-mid 50s. Most of the field step up or down in trip, adding layers of unknowns to a race that lacks a clear established profile.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with medium confidence and no obvious front-runner. Several runners, including Gainsville, Go To The Moon and Likeyouhaveplenty, like to race prominently or handy, but the majority are held-up types who produce their effort late. This should create a race where those ridden close to the pace may hold an edge, posing the key question of whether any prominent runner can dictate or whether the closers will be able to time their runs effectively off a steady gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Keep Em Quite KTB Selection62/100Useful performer who has shown consistent placed form without quite landing a big one.
- 2Kilmond Knight53/100Kilmond Knight has shown very little so far with a recent sequence of P-U07 and remains lightly raced overall.
- 3Western Shores53/100Useful sort who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three starts to date, finishing fifth or sixth each time.
- 4Scotty Joe50/100Scotty Joe showed fair promise when winning a maiden point last year but has been well held in both completed handicap starts since.
- 5Barton Sky47/100Barton Sky has a patchy recent record of P/2P-5 and only two runs in the last year so the form is hard to weigh up with any confidence.
- 6Gainsville47/100Gainsville has shown some promise in a light career with placed efforts on his last two completed starts though he was well held on return last time.
- 7Go To The Moon46/100Lightly raced with just two completed starts this year and a recent pulled-up effort.
- 8Derby Rock43/100Derby Rock is a fair sort who has struggled to make an impact in recent starts and was well beaten on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe.
- 9Secret Moon43/100Secret Moon has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing well down the field on both occasions.
- 10Room For One More42/100Lightly raced 5-year-old with just two runs this year and a modest recent form line of 6-9.
- 11Rumi Rock41/100Rumi Rock has shown very little in three runs to date, finishing well beaten on each occasion including when sixth of 15 on his only visit here.
- 12Walkingmayotomilan41/100Lightly raced with a modest recent form line of 32P0-0 and only two runs in the last year.
- 13Hey Sir40/100Hey Sir has shown some ability on his better days but his recent form of 26-376 suggests he is struggling to put it all together.
- 14Likeyouhaveplenty39/100Likeyouhaveplenty has shown very little in three starts so far with a pulled-up effort and two tailed-off finishes.
- 15Boomerang Breeze39/100Boomerang Breeze has shown little in two starts to date, finishing ninth and then last.
- 16Three County Star37/100Fair performer who has been struggling of late with a string of modest efforts including a pulled-up last time.
The contenders
Keep Em Quite KTB Fit 62/100
Keep Em Quite is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form without quite landing a big one. He now drops back from 3m to a trip he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Cian Collins has a 10% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 1.09 from 30 runs, while jockey Danny Gilligan operates at 19% with an A/E of 1.11 from 59 rides at the track. Both bring solid local records even though the horse has no course form on record and remains unproven on good ground.
Kilmond Knight KTB Fit 53/100
Kilmond Knight has shown very little so far with a recent sequence of P-U07 and remains lightly raced overall. He has already been tried over this trip without success and his two runs here produced a tenth and an unseated. The 6-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, though evidence is limited. Trainer David Richard Barry holds a 20% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 1.96 from 15 runs while jockey Alan O'Sullivan sits on a 4% strike rate with an A/E of 0.48 from 24 rides at the track. The combination brings mixed local form.
Western Shores KTB Fit 53/100
Western Shores is a useful sort who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three starts to date, finishing fifth or sixth each time. He now steps up in trip for the first time, an unknown that could suit or expose him. First-time headgear is fitted. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Gordon Elliott has a 14% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.79 from 459 runs while Jack Kennedy rides the track at 18% with an A/E of 0.96 from 120 rides, so the yard and rider bring proven local know-how even though the horse has no course form and three runs on good have brought no win or place.
Scotty Joe KTB Fit 50/100
Scotty Joe showed fair promise when winning a maiden point last year but has been well held in both completed handicap starts since. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer P J Rothwell holds a 9% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.94 from 316 runs while jockey Tiernan Power Roche is operating at 12% with an A/E of 1.18 from 25 rides at the track. The horse has no course form on record and one run on good brought no win or place.
Barton Sky KTB Fit 47/100
Barton Sky has a patchy recent record of P/2P-5 and only two runs in the last year so the form is hard to weigh up with any confidence. He drops back from 3m to a trip he has already tried without success. The 8-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, though evidence is limited. Trainer John Joseph Hanlon has a poor 1% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.16 from 140 runs, a clear negative, while jockey Daniel King offers some encouragement with a 14% strike rate and A/E of 1.22 from 72 rides at the track. The horse has no course form and one run on good brought no win or place.
The rest of the field
GainsvilleKTB Fit 47/100
Gainsville has shown some promise in a light career with placed efforts on his last two completed starts though he was well held on return last time. The yard has an 11% strike rate from 142 runs at Ballinrobe while Darragh O'Keeffe matches that figure from 175 rides here. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead. Stepping up in trip is a fresh question for this lightly-raced 6-year-old and the small overall sample means his ability remains hard to pin down.
Go To The MoonKTB Fit 46/100
Go To The Moon is lightly raced with just two completed starts this year and a recent pulled-up effort. Steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of a horse that has shown little so far. First-time headgear is reached for. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 93 runs.
Derby RockKTB Fit 43/100
Derby Rock is a fair sort who has struggled to make an impact in recent starts and was well beaten on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe. He has never won or placed on good ground from seven attempts and drops back in trip today having been out of the frame when tried at this distance before. First-time headgear is now fitted. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
Secret MoonKTB Fit 43/100
Secret Moon has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing well down the field on both occasions. The yard’s 1% strike rate from 140 runs at Ballinrobe offers no encouragement. This lightly-raced 5-year-old steps up in trip today with the small-sample data making any firm conclusions risky. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
Room For One MoreKTB Fit 42/100
Room For One More is a lightly raced 5-year-old with just two runs this year and a modest recent form line of 6-9. The small sample means there is little to go on and the longer trip is an unknown that asks a fresh question. Mullins has a solid 24% strike rate here from nearly 400 runs while Hayes is operating at 6% from 103 rides.
Rumi RockKTB Fit 41/100
Rumi Rock has shown very little in three runs to date, finishing well beaten on each occasion including when sixth of 15 on his only visit here. The lightly-raced 5-year-old steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question. Trainer Edward F Power has a modest 14% strike rate from seven runs at Ballinrobe while jockey Phillip Enright sits on a 4% strike rate from 275 rides at the track. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
WalkingmayotomilanKTB Fit 41/100
Walkingmayotomilan is lightly raced with a modest recent form line of 32P0-0 and only two runs in the last year. Steps up in trip today to a distance he has not tried, which asks a fresh question of him, while first-time headgear is also applied. Trainer has an 8% strike rate from 61 runs at Ballinrobe and the jockey's record here is too small a sample to judge. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
Hey SirKTB Fit 40/100
Hey Sir has shown some ability on his better days but his recent form of 26-376 suggests he is struggling to put it all together. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of him and with only five career runs he remains lightly raced overall. The trainer has failed to land a winner from 15 attempts at Ballinrobe while the jockey operates at a 7% strike rate here. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
LikeyouhaveplentyKTB Fit 39/100
Likeyouhaveplenty has shown very little in three starts so far with a pulled-up effort and two tailed-off finishes. The yard has a modest 0% strike rate from seven runs at Ballinrobe while the jockey is operating at a low 2% strike rate from 41 rides here. Stepping up markedly in trip is an unknown at this stage and with such a poor recent record the overall picture remains very limited on low confidence data. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
Boomerang BreezeKTB Fit 39/100
Boomerang Breeze has shown little in two starts to date, finishing ninth and then last. The step up from 2m1f to 2m6½f asks a fresh question of a horse with only two career runs. Trainer Timothy Doyle holds a 9% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 151 runs while jockey Mr D Doyle is operating at 4% from 25 rides here. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
Three County StarKTB Fit 37/100
Three County Star is a fair performer who has been struggling of late with a string of modest efforts including a pulled-up last time. Has never won or placed on good ground from four attempts and is now 0-3 at this trip. Trainer is still seeking a first Ballinrobe winner from seven runs here while the jockey has a modest 7% strike rate at the track. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
KTB verdict
Keep Em Quite is the KTB Selection. He brings the highest Fit score on the back of consistent placed form and benefits from a trainer and jockey who both have solid records at Ballinrobe. The drop back in trip poses a question but his ability gives him a strong chance in a race where the pace is likely to be tactical. Main dangers include Western Shores with the first-time headgear and local know-how from the Elliott/Kennedy combination, while Gainsville and Room For One More represent respected yards that could improve for the longer trip.
KTB Selection Keep Em Quite
This is the narrative read of the 7:57 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping back in trip from 3m?
Keep Em Quite and Barton Sky are both dropping back from 3m.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four runners are wearing first-time headgear: Western Shores, Go To The Moon, Derby Rock and Walkingmayotomilan.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Ballinrobe in this field?
W P Mullins has a 24% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 398 runs.
Who are the two most prominent runners in terms of run-style?
Gainsville and Go To The Moon are the two most prominent, usually racing handily on or close to the lead.
Which horse has the highest official rating implied by its recent placed form?
Keep Em Quite has shown consistent placed form in its recent starts of 3505-5.
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