7:15 Roscommon
The 7:15 at Roscommon is a 7f111y handicap for a field of 18 on good ground. It features a strong pace likely to test the runners late on, with several horses coming into the race in consistent form but without recent wins. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the principals all rated in the low-to-mid 50s, underlining a competitive contest where course experience, trip suitability and the application of first-time headgear could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace is expected to be strong, potentially setting up for those racing from off the pace. Cool Azul, Spodo Komodo and Venetian Star are all likely to be prominent or make the running, while the majority of the field, including the top two in the KTB rankings, are hold-up types who will be looking to come from behind. The key question is whether the pace will collapse in the closing stages, which would play into the hands of the hold-up horses such as Earls, Mehman and Engines On.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Earls KTB Selection55/100Fair sort who has been knocking on the door of late with three straight seconds.
- 2Mehman53/100Fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, finishing in the first three four times from his last six starts.
- 3Cool Azul53/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year before landing a 6f maiden last time.
- 4Summer Island51/100Summer Island is a fair performer with a solid recent record of 631215 that includes two wins in the last six starts.
- 5Engines On50/100Engines On is a fair performer who has won three times at today's trip but arrives in poor form having been well beaten on his last three starts.
- 6Spodo Komodo49/100Fair performer who has shown mixed form this year, including a placed effort at this trip.
- 7Contrary To Law49/100Fair performer who has already won over today's trip and showed his best form when landing a 7f handicap at Naas last month before running respectably in a stro…
- 8Sagasti49/100Modest performer who has been placed three times over today's trip without winning.
- 9Dragon Of Malta48/100Fair performer who has been around a bit and has shown his best at this track with a second and two fifths from four runs here.
- 10Thenandnow48/100Fair performer who has been in and out this year, showing his best when third at Leopardstown last time.
- 11Flaming Rib46/100Modest performer with a solid record on good ground including four wins from 15 starts.
- 12Java Wood46/100Modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has looked limited on his last few starts.
- 13Mercurial44/100Modest performer who has run well here without winning, finishing second twice from three starts at Roscommon.
- 14Red Hugh O'Donnell44/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best when winning at this trip earlier in the season.
- 15Tokyo Treasure42/100Tokyo Treasure has shown fair form in recent starts, finishing second last time out after a string of consistent placed efforts.
- 16Perfect Base40/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing third here on his only visit.
- 17Venetian Star40/100Modest performer with a string of placed efforts but no win in 11 starts.
- 18Dolly Hello35/100Modest performer who has shown bits of ability on her five starts to date without ever looking like winning.
The contenders
Earls KTB Fit 55/100
Earls is a fair sort who has been knocking on the door of late with three straight seconds. He has won three times from six starts at Roscommon and also has a solid record at today's trip, though he is dropping back from a mile. First-time headgear is now tried on ground he handles. The nine-year-old is held up and produces his effort late, which looks ideal given the expected strong pace. Gavin Cromwell has a 12% strike rate at the track from 189 runs while Gary Carroll is 12% from 254 rides here. The recent form figures of 002223 underline his consistency in this grade.
Mehman KTB Fit 53/100
Mehman is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, finishing in the first three four times from his last six starts. He steps up in trip today having placed at this distance before, while first-time headgear is now tried after a string of ordinary efforts. The trainer holds a solid 10% strike rate here from 31 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the seven-year-old should be suited by the strong pace that is anticipated. P J F Murphy and Gavin Ryan combine with a 9% record from 124 runs together.
Cool Azul KTB Fit 53/100
Cool Azul is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year before landing a 6f maiden last time. Steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also an unknown. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate at Roscommon from a big sample. The three-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace and will be right at the sharp end in a race where the pace is likely to be strong. W J Lee takes the ride for trainer A Oliver, who have a 14% record from 407 runs in partnership.
Summer Island KTB Fit 51/100
Summer Island is a fair performer with a solid recent record of 631215 that includes two wins in the last six starts. She has won twice on good ground from seven attempts and has scored three times at today's trip from 12 runs, though she drops back from a mile last time. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from nine runs at Roscommon while the jockey is making his first appearance at the track. Typically settling in midfield, the four-year-old will need to be well placed to take advantage if the leaders go too hard. Dylan Browne McMonagle partners her for Miss Natalia Lupini.
Engines On KTB Fit 50/100
Engines On is a fair performer who has won three times at today's trip but arrives in poor form having been well beaten on his last three starts. He has only run once at Roscommon and finished seventh, while the trainer has a 0% strike rate from seven runs here. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps back up to 7½f on ground where he has been competitive without winning. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the six-year-old could be well suited by the anticipated strong pace. Chris Hayes rides for John Andrew Kinsella.
The rest of the field
Spodo KomodoKTB Fit 49/100
Spodo Komodo is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year, including a placed effort at this trip. Steps up from 6f today having already been placed twice over this distance without winning. Trainer has a modest 9% strike rate from 32 runs at Roscommon. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and will be prominent in a race with a strong pace likely.
Contrary To LawKTB Fit 49/100
Contrary To Law is a fair performer who has already won over today's trip and showed his best form when landing a 7f handicap at Naas last month before running respectably in a stronger race at the Curragh. Steps up in distance for the first time today which poses a fresh question, though the pedigree and previous win at this range suggest it should be within range. Trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at Roscommon from 121 runs while the jockey is equally at home here. Usually held up and produces effort late.
SagastiKTB Fit 49/100
Sagasti is a modest performer who has been placed three times over today's trip without winning. First-time headgear is tried after two modest efforts, though the yard's solid 14% strike-rate at Roscommon offers some encouragement. Lightly raced on good ground and making his debut here so plenty remains unknown. Usually held up and produces effort late.
Dragon Of MaltaKTB Fit 48/100
Dragon Of Malta is a fair performer who has been around a bit and has shown his best at this track with a second and two fifths from four runs here. He steps up in trip today having won at this distance before but his recent form is ordinary and the first-time headgear is an unknown. Trainer strikes at 9% here from 22 runs while the 7lb claimer has limited course experience. Usually held up and produces effort late.
ThenandnowKTB Fit 48/100
Thenandnow is a fair performer who has been in and out this year, showing his best when third at Leopardstown last time. He steps up in trip today having already placed over this distance without winning, while his record on good ground is respectable but winless. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Roscommon from a big sample. Usually held up and produces effort late.
Flaming RibKTB Fit 46/100
Flaming Rib is a modest performer with a solid record on good ground including four wins from 15 starts. Steps up to 7½f for the first time in a while having failed to win in seven previous attempts at the trip and now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer holds a 10% strike rate at Roscommon from 143 runs while this is the horse's first run at the track. Usually held up and produces effort late.
Java WoodKTB Fit 46/100
Java Wood is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has looked limited on his last few starts. Drops back from a mile today having shown no spark on good ground in five previous attempts. Trainer has no recorded runners at Roscommon while the horse makes his first appearance here. Usually held up and produces effort late.
MercurialKTB Fit 44/100
Mercurial is a modest performer who has run well here without winning, finishing second twice from three starts at Roscommon. Placed three times from nine runs on good ground and has form at today's trip though he steps up from 6.5f today. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard holds a 15% strike rate at the track from 26 runs. Usually held up and produces effort late.
Red Hugh O'DonnellKTB Fit 44/100
Red Hugh O'Donnell is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best when winning at this trip earlier in the season. First-time headgear is now tried after a string of ordinary efforts and he has no form on this track or on good ground. Trainer has a 0% strike rate from 11 runs here. Usually held up and produces effort late.
Tokyo TreasureKTB Fit 42/100
Tokyo Treasure has shown fair form in recent starts, finishing second last time out after a string of consistent placed efforts. He steps up in trip today having already been placed at this distance without winning, while first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has only had two runners at Roscommon so the sample is too small to judge, and with just five career runs the horse remains lightly raced overall. Typically settles in midfield.
Perfect BaseKTB Fit 40/100
Perfect Base is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing third here on his only visit. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance before, though the first-time headgear is an unknown and the yard is currently 0-9 at Roscommon. Recent form has been patchy and he was well beaten on his latest start. Usually held up and produces effort late.
Venetian StarKTB Fit 40/100
Venetian Star is a modest performer with a string of placed efforts but no win in 11 starts. Steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance before, while his record on good ground shows two placed efforts from seven runs. Trainer has too small a sample at Roscommon to judge and this is the colt's first run here. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Dolly HelloKTB Fit 35/100
Dolly Hello is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on her five starts to date without ever looking like winning. She drops back from a mile to a trip where she has been placed twice, though the wide draw in stall 14 will not help. Trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 93 runs at Roscommon. Usually held up and produces effort late.
KTB verdict
Earls is the KTB Selection. A fair sort who has been knocking on the door with three straight seconds, he has won three times from six starts at Roscommon and possesses a solid record at today's trip. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition on ground he handles, and his hold-up style should be favoured if the strong pace collapses late. The main dangers are Mehman, another consistent hold-up performer now fitted with first-time headgear, and Cool Azul, who brings maiden-winning form and the speed to be prominent early. Summer Island and Engines On are the next most interesting on KTB ratings.
KTB Selection Earls
This is the narrative read of the 7:15 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Roscommon?
Earls has won three times from six starts at Roscommon.
How does the expected pace shape influence the race?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which of the principals is making its first appearance at Roscommon?
Summer Island has no course form on record.
How many of the top five in the KTB Fit rankings are wearing first-time headgear?
Four of the top five principals are wearing first-time headgear: Earls, Mehman, Cool Azul and Engines On.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Roscommon among those with significant runners?
M D O'Callaghan has a 14% strike rate at Roscommon from 43 runs.
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