2:35 Navan
A competitive 19-runner handicap over 5f at Navan on good ground forms part of the Racing Festival card. The KTB Fit scores suggest a race with limited overall quality, headed by Irish Rumour on 69, with the next four principals clustered between 63 and 53. Most of the field sits in the low-to-mid 50s or below, underlining the modest standard and the likelihood that any horse showing a return to form could take advantage.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting an uncontested lead that will be difficult for closers to reel in late. The vast majority of runners, including all five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, meaning the race is likely to develop into a test of whether any of them can bridge the gap to the uncontested front-runner. The key question is whether the leader can get an easy enough time up front or if the bunch of closers can find the necessary pace to close the gap in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Irish Rumour KTB Selection69/100
Irish Rumour is a limited class performer who has won over this trip and at this track from four runs. Her recent form is patchy yet she has been competitive on good ground before and drops back to 5f which should suit. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.31 from 23 runs, while the jockey boasts a 67% strike rate at the track from a small sample of three rides with an A/E of 9.17. She is usually held up and produces her effort late, though the confidence in that read is only medium. Overall she looks to have the best chance in a modest field.
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2Glen Breeze63/100
Glen Breeze is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on his last four starts and finished a remote 14th when he tried this track previously. He drops back to 5f today having looked stretched at longer trips lately and holds a modest strike rate on good ground with one win from six runs and three places. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.56 from 57 runs, while the jockey has a 13% strike rate here with an A/E of 2.18 from eight rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that assessment.
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3Rosato62/100
Rosato is a limited performer who has won both starts at Navan yet has struggled to land a blow in recent runs. He drops back to 5f having been out of the frame both previous attempts at the trip while his record on good ground shows placed efforts without a win from six runs. The trainer holds a 14% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.63 from 14 runs, and the jockey has an 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.81 from a large 609 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
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4Asdana55/100
Asdana is a limited performer who has shown the odd flash of ability but remains winless after 17 runs. She has been placed once from four starts at this track and has a win and three places from six runs on good ground, while the trip is also in her favour. The trainer operates at a modest 9% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.85 from 343 runs, though the jockey has a solid 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.05 from 37 rides and the yard-jockey combination shows a 40% strike rate from ten runs with an A/E of 2.79. She is usually held up and produces her effort late with high confidence.
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5Surpass And Shine53/100
Surpass And Shine is a limited performer who has struggled this year with two poor efforts after a long break. He has won twice at this trip but only modest form on good ground overall with two wins from ten runs and three places, and was well beaten on his only previous visit to Navan. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.91 from 310 runs, while the jockey has a 5% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.73 from 59 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
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6Agostino52/100
Agostino is a limited performer who has been running to a similar level for some time without winning. He drops back to his winning trip today having been competitive on good ground in the past though he has never won on it. The trainer is still seeking a first Navan winner from 15 attempts while the jockey has a solid record here with a 9% strike rate and A/E of 1.03 from 11 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
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7Step Back In Time51/100
Step Back In Time is a limited performer who has won four times at Navan from 14 runs and also has two wins from 18 starts at this trip. He has shown very little in recent starts with a string of poor efforts mixed in with the odd placed run. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.91 from 62 runs while the jockey's record is more modest at 6% with an A/E of 0.74 from 452 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
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8Steel Magnolia51/100
Steel Magnolia is a limited filly who has been consistent enough to place seven times from 18 starts without winning often. She showed her best form when second over this trip at the Curragh last time and has a placed effort from her only run at Navan. The yard and jockey both have modest records at the track while she has won once on good ground from seven attempts. She is usually held up and produces her effort late with high confidence.
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9Ballysax Lil' Mick46/100
Ballysax Lil' Mick is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark in his last three runs. He has placed once from three starts at Navan and holds a win on good ground though his overall record at this trip is modest. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.29 from 23 runs offers no encouragement. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence.
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10One Cool Bear46/100
One Cool Bear is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and has failed to win in 14 starts. He showed little at this track on his only visit and has been beaten on all eight runs on good ground. The drop to 5f is an unknown and the yard's modest 5% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.73 from 319 runs adds little encouragement. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence.
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11Lethimfly45/100
Lethimfly is a limited horse who has shown very little in two runs at this track and arrives on the back of a string of poor efforts. He drops back to 5f having won at the trip earlier in his career but the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.49 from 298 runs offers no encouragement. The jockey is more positive with a 14% record here with an A/E of 0.83 from 582 rides though that is still some way below his overall level. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
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12Simmering Seas45/100
Simmering Seas is a limited performer who has been placed without winning on his last four starts. He drops back to 5f today having shown some ability at the trip earlier in the year while the good ground looks fine on his placed efforts from two of six runs. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.31 from 34 runs is a negative. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
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13Jackandthefox41/100
Jackandthefox is a limited performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, finishing in the frame in two of his last five starts. He has run only once at Navan and was well beaten, while his record on good ground shows a couple of placed efforts but no victory. The trainer holds a solid 13% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.31 from 23 runs and the jockey is experienced at the track though with a 5% strike rate and A/E of 0.76 from 502 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence.
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14Caffu Zafeen41/100
Caffu Zafeen is a limited performer who has struggled for form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has run just once at Navan and finished well beaten while showing only modest placed form on good ground from six attempts. He drops back to 5f today having failed to make the frame in three previous tries at the trip. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
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15Monastere40/100
Monastere is a limited performer who has shown just one win in ten starts and was well held when last seen. He has run okay on good ground with a win and two places from four attempts but has never won at this trip. The trainer has a modest record at Navan with 0% from 51 runs while the claiming jockey has a solid enough 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.1 from 54 rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence.
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16Cleopatra Dream40/100
Cleopatra Dream has shown very little in three starts and sits in the limited category on what is a small sample. Dropping back from a mile to an untried 5f poses a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 16 adds another unknown on a track where both trainer and jockey have minimal meaningful data. Everything here needs treating with real caution given the low confidence figures. She is usually held up and produces her effort late with medium confidence.
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17The Love Machine36/100
The Love Machine is a limited sort who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark in recent starts. He has won over course and distance but that success came in much weaker company and he has failed to place in five runs on good ground. The trainer is still seeking a first Navan winner from 15 attempts while the jockey has a solid record here with a 9% strike rate and A/E of 1.12 from 115 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
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18Lismacbryan33/100
Lismacbryan is a limited performer who has shown little spark in three runs at Navan and arrives on the back of a string of poor efforts. First-time headgear is now tried in a bid to spark some improvement but the yard's 2% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.45 from 64 runs offers little encouragement. The jockey has a fair 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.96 from 109 rides but this looks a stiff task on the balance of what the horse has produced so far. She is usually held up and produces her effort late with medium confidence.
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19Kidd31/100
Kidd is a limited performer who has shown little in three starts to date. Dropping back to 5f today after a poor 8th over 7f here last time, he has no standout positives on the figures. The trainer operates at a 4% strike rate at Navan from 393 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 19 rides at the track. He has shown nothing on his two runs on good ground.
KTB verdict
Irish Rumour is the KTB Selection. She is a limited class performer who has won over this trip and at this track from four runs, and drops back to 5f which should suit while having been competitive on good ground before. The trainer's solid record at Navan and the jockey's small-sample strike rate add to the appeal in what is a modest race. The main dangers are likely to come from Rosato, who has won both starts at the track, and Asdana who has shown the odd flash of ability and is well suited by the trip and going, though both would need to improve on recent efforts to overturn the selection.
KTB Selection Irish Rumour
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:26 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Irish Rumour | 11/2 | Bet Victor |
| Glen Breeze | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Rosato | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Asdana | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Surpass And Shine | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Agostino | 14/1 | BetTom |
| Step Back In Time | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Steel Magnolia | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Ballysax Lil' Mick | 12/1 | William Hill |
| One Cool Bear | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Lethimfly | 20/1 | BetMGM |
| Simmering Seas | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Jackandthefox | 20/1 | BetMGM |
| Caffu Zafeen | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Monastere | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Cleopatra Dream | 28/1 | Bet Victor |
| The Love Machine | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Lismacbryan | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Kidd | 50/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 2:35 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
Rosato has won both starts at Navan.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
All five principals are held up and produce their effort late.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Navan among those with principals?
Charles Weld has a 14% strike rate at Navan.
Which horse in the full field is the only front-runner?
Monastere tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many horses in the field have course-and-distance form as a winner?
Irish Rumour and The Love Machine have won over course and distance.
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