4:20 Navan
A 24-runner handicap over 1m2f10y at Navan on good ground marks the return of the jumps at the track later in the month. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched in the low-to-mid 50s for the leading principals, underlining the modest level of the contest and the likelihood that several runners will need to improve on recent form to figure. With a lone leader likely to enjoy an uncontested advantage, the race shape will place a premium on those who can close effectively from off the pace.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to one clear front-runner with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. The vast majority of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late. The key question is whether any of the closers can bridge the gap to the uncontested leader on this good ground, or if the advantage will prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Katherine KTB Selection57/100
Katherine is a modest performer with a long career behind her and recent form that has been poor. She drops back from 2m4f to 1m2f today having failed to trouble the judge in her only previous run at the distance. The trainer records a 5% strike rate from 20 runs at Navan while the jockey has no recorded rides here. With a KTB Fit of 57 she tops the ratings in a modest event. Her run-style is held up, producing her effort late, which aligns with the shape that may favour those coming from off the pace if the leader is allowed too easy a time. Drawn in stall 1 she has no course form on record.
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2Alto Sax54/100
Alto Sax is a limited class performer who has been in and out this year but showed his best when second over C&D on his only visit to Navan. He steps back up to a trip he has won twice from seven starts, which looks a plus on good ground where he is 3-13. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey's solid 14% record here from a small sample. His KTB Fit of 54 places him second in the numbers. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be hoping the uncontested lead sets up a race in which closers can be effective. He has been placed over course and distance.
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3Wipeawayyourtears53/100
Wipeawayyourtears is a limited performer who has shown ability on the Flat but failed to build on earlier promise when well held last time. He drops back in trip having been placed at this distance without winning and now tries first-time headgear. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at Navan, with the yard at 12% and the rider at 9%. Rated 53 on KTB Fit he sits third among the principals. His run-style is held up with a late effort, fitting the race shape that may suit those coming from off the pace against an uncontested leader. He has a going record of one win from four on good.
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4Pallatine Hills52/100
Pallatine Hills is a modest performer whose recent record of 50-605 suggests he is struggling to find his best form. He steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact in two previous tries at this distance while his record on good ground is just one placed effort from seven starts. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Navan from 45 runs while the jockey is operating at 6% from 84 rides here. With a KTB Fit of 52 he is fourth in the order. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right given the shape and the uncontested lead likely to be set. He has no course form on record.
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5Albatala51/100
Albatala is a modest performer who won a handicap over this trip last year but has been largely out of form since. Dropping back from 2m1f looks the right move and he has placed on good ground before, yet his only run here was poor. The trainer's modest record at Navan offers little encouragement despite the jockey's respectable strike rate. His KTB Fit of 51 makes him the last of the principals. Held up and usually producing his effort late, he fits the profile of those who will be hoping to close on the clear leader in what is likely to be a steadily run affair. He was tenth on his sole visit to the course.
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6Nephin Mountain49/100
Nephin Mountain is a limited performer who has won once from six starts on good ground and showed his only success at this track came over shorter. He steps up to an untested 1m2f today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate from a big sample at Navan and the 7lb claimer add little encouragement from the yard or saddle.
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7Make The Tide49/100
Make The Tide is a limited performer who won over a mile here on debut in June but has failed to build on it in five subsequent runs. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of a horse that has shown its best form over shorter. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Navan without setting the track alight.
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8Mare Crisium49/100
Mare Crisium is a limited filly who has not managed a win or place in eight starts and looks up against it from stall 14. She has shown some ability at this track when fifth on her only visit and is dropping back in trip after a recent 1m6f run, though she has failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at this distance. The yard holds a solid 12% strike rate at Navan while Foley is a regular here with an 11% record. She is the only front-runner in the field.
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9Kingcharles47/100
Kingcharles is a limited performer who has shown little in five starts to date and finished well down the field in both runs at this track. He steps up in trip today having looked stretched at a mile last time. Trainer holds a 9% strike rate here from 70 runs while the jockey is operating at 5% from over 500 rides.
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10Neon Eyes47/100
Neon Eyes is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability in six starts without winning. Dropping back in trip to 1m2f poses a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 21 is far from ideal. Trainer has a 9% strike rate from 480 runs at Navan and the jockey is 6% from 452 rides here.
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11God Knows46/100
God Knows is a limited performer who has struggled badly of late with a string of poor efforts. He drops back in trip to a distance he has won at before and has a solid record on good ground with two wins and five places from 11 runs. Trainer is 0-6 at the course while the jockey is operating at a 3% strike rate here from 30 rides.
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12Jazz Forever45/100
Jazz Forever is a limited performer who has shown occasional spark at this track without winning. Placed twice on good ground from 12 starts and has a win at today's trip on his record, though his last two efforts were poor and he now drops back from 1m6f. First-time headgear is tried while both trainer and jockey have modest but established records here.
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13African Affair45/100
African Affair is a limited performer who has been well beaten on all three starts to date including when twelfth of 14 over this trip on this track. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Navan offers little encouragement and neither does the jockey's 3% record here. Trip looks about right but there is not much else to like.
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14Cause I Like You44/100
Cause I Like You is a limited performer who has been in and out of form all year and now steps up in trip for the first time. Navan is a first-time visit and the yard's modest 5% strike rate here adds little encouragement, though the jockey's 8% record is respectable. Goes well enough on good ground but the overall profile suggests he will struggle to be competitive from stall 24.
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15Giselles Defence42/100
Giselles Defence is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and finished no better than fifth on his last six starts. He has won at today's trip in the past but steps up in distance from 1m today having shown little at this track on his only previous visit. The trainer's record at Navan is poor.
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16Oh I Do Declare42/100
Oh I Do Declare is a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts to date. The yard's modest record at Navan offers no encouragement and neither does the wide draw in stall 22. Trip has been tried once without success and there is not enough evidence yet to judge going suitability.
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17Chloe's Boy41/100
Chloe's Boy is a limited performer who has shown very little in five runs to date. Dropping back from 1m6f to 1m2f poses a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 13 is another negative. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Navan offers little encouragement.
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18Calamint40/100
Calamint is a limited performer who has shown bits of form this year, including a second at this track and another placing over today's trip. He drops back from 2m having looked stretched at the longer distance last time, though the wide draw in stall 18 adds difficulty. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Navan and the jockey's 3% record here suggest this will be tough.
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19Miss Ivor37/100
Miss Ivor is a limited filly who has shown very little in six starts this year and looks up against it from the widest draw. The step up to 1m2f is an unknown that could help or hinder. Trainer is 0-11 at Navan while the jockey has a solid 9% strike rate here from a small sample.
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20Churchill Gale35/100
Churchill Gale is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in 12 starts and arrives here off the back of modest form figures. He has never won or placed on good ground and has failed to trouble the judge in two runs at this trip. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 4% strike rate at Navan.
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21Haeret In Pectore35/100
Haeret In Pectore is a limited performer who has shown little since a modest debut effort and looks vulnerable again from a wide draw. He has failed to trouble the judge in three starts at this trip and the small overall sample makes going preferences hard to pin down. Trainer holds a 9% strike rate at Navan from a large number of runners.
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22Bang Po32/100
Bang Po is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has shown little at this track or on good ground and is stepping up in trip today having failed to make an impact over this distance before. The trainer's record at Navan is modest.
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23De Songbird32/100
De Songbird is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in six starts and whose recent form of 760770 offers little encouragement. He steps up markedly in trip today having last been seen over 6f, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has a modest 3% strike rate at Navan from a large sample while the jockey is still seeking her first success at the track from 13 rides.
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24Capall Cuain32/100
Capall Cuain has shown very little in three starts to date and carries the limited tag. First-time headgear is now applied as he steps up markedly in trip to a distance that asks a fresh question. The trainer has too small a sample at Navan to judge while the jockey's 6% strike rate from 190 rides here is modest.
KTB verdict
Katherine is the KTB Selection. She tops the Fit ratings at 57 in a race where the principals are closely matched on the numbers and the modest level is evident throughout. Her held-up style should suit if the uncontested lead sets up a race in which closers can be effective, and the drop back in trip from 2m4f is taken as a positive move. Main dangers are Alto Sax, who showed his best when second over C&D, and Wipeawayyourtears who tries first-time headgear having been placed at this distance before.
KTB Selection Katherine
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:26 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Katherine | 60/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Alto Sax | 13/2 | BetTom |
| Wipeawayyourtears | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Pallatine Hills | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Albatala | 7/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Nephin Mountain | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Make The Tide | 2/1 | Bet365 |
| Mare Crisium | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Kingcharles | 33/1 | BoyleSports |
| Neon Eyes | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| God Knows | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Jazz Forever | 33/1 | BetTom |
| African Affair | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Cause I Like You | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Giselles Defence | 22/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Oh I Do Declare | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Chloe's Boy | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Calamint | 12/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Miss Ivor | 80/1 | BetTom |
| Churchill Gale | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Haeret In Pectore | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Bang Po | 60/1 | Dragon Bet |
| De Songbird | 66/1 | BetTom |
| Capall Cuain | 80/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 4:20 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the pace shape described as a lone leader with high confidence?
The supplied pace shape states lone leader with high confidence, indicating one clear front-runner with little to pressure it and an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
Which horse is the only front-runner in the field?
Mare Crisium is the only horse whose run-style is listed as front-runner, tending to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the top five principals have course form at Navan?
Two of the top five principals have course form: Alto Sax has been second once and Albatala has been tenth once; Katherine, Wipeawayyourtears and Pallatine Hills have no course form on record.
Which horses in the field are wearing first-time headgear?
Wipeawayyourtears, Jazz Forever and Capall Cuain are all wearing first-time headgear.
What is the trainer strike rate at Navan for the yard of the KTB Selection?
The trainer of Katherine, Adrian Sexton, records a 5% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.21 from 20 runs.
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