4:18 Yarmouth
This Class 6 handicap over 1m6f17y at Yarmouth on good to soft ground features a field of ten modest performers, most of whom have been in and out of form recently. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Cloudy Rose heading the list on 64, just ahead of Argentum on 61 and Daaris on 58. Several runners have placed efforts at the track or over the trip without winning here, and the official figures cluster around the 70-72 RPR mark, suggesting a competitive but unspectacular race.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner enjoying an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Dissident is the only confirmed front-runner and should take them along from the start, while Argentum is likely to race prominently just in behind. The remainder of the field, including the selection Cloudy Rose, are held up or settle in mid-division, meaning the race could be won or lost from off the pace if the leader gets an easy time of it.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Cloudy Rose KTB Selection64/100Modest performer who has run creditably on her last two starts here without threatening to win.
- 2Argentum61/100Modest performer who has been below form of late and was well held when last of six over 1m4f on his most recent start.
- 3Daaris58/100Modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark and has won four times over this trip.
- 4Beggarman57/100Modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark and showed a bit more spark when fourth at this track last month.
- 5Smokey Malone57/100Smokey Malone is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed his ability when finishing second and third over C&D earlier in the sea…
- 6Captain Robert53/100Modest performer who has been consistent of late with three placed efforts from his last five starts.
- 7Urban Warrior53/100Modest performer who has shown little on the balance of his five starts.
- 8Dissident47/100Dissident is a modest performer who has not won for a long time and arrives with a recent string of ordinary efforts.
- 9Star Of Jupiter47/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, placing on both starts this year and showing he handles good to soft ground.
- 10High Favour46/100High Favour has shown very little in four runs for this yard since leaving Jim Bolger, finishing well beaten each time including on his most recent start in a f…
The contenders
Cloudy Rose KTB Fit 64/100
Cloudy Rose is a modest performer who has run creditably on her last two starts here without threatening to win. She stays this trip well enough having won over it and has shown she can be competitive on good to soft ground. The yard’s solid record at the track offers some encouragement but she still looks vulnerable to anything progressive. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has figures of RPR 72 and TS 65 to her name. Trainer John Berry has an 11% strike rate at Yarmouth with an A/E of 1.06 from 203 runs, while jockey Gina Mangan is 10% at the track with an A/E of 1.63 from 29 rides. She has been placed twice from seven starts on good to soft and has three previous runs here without placing.
Argentum KTB Fit 61/100
Argentum is a modest performer who has been below form of late and was well held when last of six over 1m4f on his most recent start. He steps up in trip for the first time today having failed to get involved on his only previous try at this distance. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 22 runs at Yarmouth while the horse is unproven on good to soft ground. Racing prominently and usually on or close to the lead, he has an RPR of 71. Trainer Matt Crawley has a 9% strike rate at Yarmouth with an A/E of 1.16, and jockey Warren Fentiman boasts a 20% strike rate here with an A/E of 2.69 from five rides. He has one previous run at the course when third.
Daaris KTB Fit 58/100
Daaris is a modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark and has won four times over this trip. He has shown his best at Yarmouth with two placed efforts from as many starts here though neither was a win and he has been below form on his last two outings. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate at the track while the jockey is 0-6 here. Typically settling in midfield, he brings figures of RPR 72 and TS 66. Trainer Kevin Frost has a 9% strike rate at Yarmouth with an A/E of 0.91 from 44 runs, and jockey Jack Mitchell has a 16% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.1 from 416 rides. He has been placed once from three starts on good to soft and has two placed efforts from two runs at the course.
Beggarman KTB Fit 57/100
Beggarman is a modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark and showed a bit more spark when fourth at this track last month. He has won twice at today's trip and is 1-6 on good to soft, though his recent efforts at 2m suggest the shorter distance is worth trying. Hughie Morrison's 10% strike rate from 61 runs at Yarmouth offers no strong pointers either way. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has an RPR of 71 and TS of 66. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Yarmouth with an A/E of 0.72, while jockey Rob Hornby is 16% at the track with an A/E of 1.16 from 50 rides. He has one previous run here when second.
Smokey Malone KTB Fit 57/100
Smokey Malone is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed his ability when finishing second and third over C&D earlier in the season. He drops back from two miles to a trip he has won over five times from 19 starts, though he is 0-2 on good to soft ground. The yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Yarmouth from 30 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has an RPR of 70 and TS of 52. Trainer Julia & Shelley Birkett have a 17% strike rate at Yarmouth with an A/E of 1.48 from 30 runs, and jockey Dylan Hogan is 9% here with an A/E of 0.85 from 219 rides. He has three previous runs at the course including a second and a third.
The rest of the field
Captain RobertKTB Fit 53/100
Captain Robert is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with three placed efforts from his last five starts. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has won at from four attempts while his record on good to soft reads a competitive placed effort from two starts. James Fanshawe has a solid 14% strike rate at Yarmouth from a large sample.
Urban WarriorKTB Fit 53/100
Urban Warrior is a modest performer who has shown little on the balance of his five starts. He shaped okay when fourth over this trip on AW in January and again when fourth here over 1m2f three weeks ago, but the return to 1m6f asks a fresh question and the Topspeed figure of 55 suggests he is not progressing. Dropping in class, the trainer holds a 10% strike rate from 580 runs at Yarmouth while the jockey is 0-1 at the track from his sole ride.
DissidentKTB Fit 47/100
Dissident is a modest performer who has not won for a long time and arrives with a recent string of ordinary efforts. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him while the yard's modest record at Yarmouth offers little encouragement. Good-to-soft ground looks fine on his limited evidence.
Star Of JupiterKTB Fit 47/100
Star Of Jupiter is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, placing on both starts this year and showing he handles good to soft ground. He drops back from 2m to a trip where he has placed once before though he remains winless in 19 starts overall. The trainer's modest record at Yarmouth offers little encouragement on what is the horse's first run here.
High FavourKTB Fit 46/100
High Favour has shown very little in four runs for this yard since leaving Jim Bolger, finishing well beaten each time including on his most recent start in a first-time hood at Lingfield. He drops back from 2m to an untried 1m6f today which asks a fresh question of him. The modest RPR of 61 reflects a limited level of ability so far.
KTB verdict
Cloudy Rose is the KTB Selection. She has run creditably on her last two starts over the course without quite threatening to win, stays the trip well enough and has shown she can be competitive on good to soft ground, with the yard’s solid record at Yarmouth adding a layer of encouragement. The race looks likely to be run with an uncontested lead which could make things tough for hold-up performers like her, yet she remains the most solid on the balance of what she has shown here. The main dangers are the consistent Captain Robert who drops back in trip, and Daaris who has a good record of placing at the track and has won four times over the distance.
KTB Selection Cloudy Rose
This is the narrative read of the 4:18 Yarmouth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Yarmouth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Dissident is the only confirmed front-runner and should take them along from the start.
How many wins has Smokey Malone recorded over this trip?
Smokey Malone has won over this trip five times from 19 starts.
What is Daaris's course record at Yarmouth?
Daaris has two placed efforts from two starts at Yarmouth, though neither was a win.
Which runner has the strongest trainer strike rate at the track among the principals?
Smokey Malone's yard has a 17% strike rate at Yarmouth from 30 runs.
Has Cloudy Rose won over this distance before?
Cloudy Rose stays this trip well enough having won over it.
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