6:40 Kempton (AW)
A competitive Class 5 handicap over 1m at Kempton on standard to slow ground serves as a London Mile Series qualifier, with a field of 14 runners where the KTB Fit scores point to a tight contest at the top. Silca Bay heads the ratings on 69 with a recent win and strong course record, while Havana Touch, Lady Manzor and Billy Mill all sit in the low 60s and bring solid AW form. The numbers suggest a race that could be decided by how the muddling pace shape unfolds and which runners handle the tactical nature best.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner in a muddling and tactical pace shape, the race is likely to be run at a steady gallop early on, suiting those who can settle close to the pace or in mid-division and produce their effort at the right time. Prominent runners such as Island Hero may try to get a soft lead, while the majority of the field, including several hold-up types like Lady Manzor, Criminal and Celestias Comet, will be looking to come from off the pace once the tempo lifts. The key question is whether the race develops into a sprint for the line or if those positioned prominently can dictate matters from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Silca Bay KTB Selection69/100Silca Bay is a fair performer who arrives in solid form having won his latest start.
- 2Havana Touch63/100Havana Touch is a fair handicapper who has won twice at this track from nine runs and also has a win on standard to slow ground from nine attempts.
- 3Lady Manzor63/100Useful performer who has won once and placed three times from five starts on standard to slow going here.
- 4Billy Mill61/100Billy Mill is a fair handicapper who has run to form on his last three starts and looks sure to go well again from stall 7.
- 5Hour By Hour60/100Fair performer on his best days but has failed to fire on his last five starts and was well held on his only previous visit to this track.
- 6Criminal60/100Criminal has a solid recent record with an RPR of 89 that marks him as fair at this level and he has shown up well at Kempton in the past with a placed effort f…
- 7I Am Me58/100I Am Me is a fair performer on his figures and arrives in decent nick with three straight placed efforts including a recent third here.
- 8Bold Suitor55/100Bold Suitor arrives in solid nick with recent form of 43-421 and an RPR of 87 that matches his fair level.
- 9American State55/100American State is a fair performer on his best days and arrives in solid form having won twice on the AW this year.
- 10Celestias Comet54/100Celestias Comet is a fair performer who has shown consistent form of late and has already placed over this trip.
- 11My Boy Harry53/100My Boy Harry is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 85 and has won over this trip as well as at Kempton.
- 12Just Typical50/100Just Typical is a fair handicapper who has won five times over this trip from 20 attempts and arrives here off a mark that looks manageable on his best RPRs.
- 13Island Hero50/100Island Hero has shown fair ability with an RPR of 82 and placed once at this trip from four starts.
- 14Freddie's Star46/100Modest performer who showed ability when third over C&D in December but has run poorly in two starts since.
The contenders
Silca Bay KTB Fit 69/100
Silca Bay is a fair performer who arrives in solid form having won his latest start. He has a strong record at this track with three wins from nine runs and has also won three times from nine starts on standard to slow ground. The 7lb claimer helps offset a wide draw in stall 13 though the yard's modest strike rate here tempers expectations. Oliver Carmichael takes the ride for Eve Johnson Houghton, whose trainer-jockey combination shows a positive A/E of 1.48. Dropping in class looks a plus and his recent form of 4-4041 underlines his competitiveness at this level with an RPR of 88. Typically settling in midfield, he should be well placed to take advantage of the tactical pace shape.
Havana Touch KTB Fit 63/100
Havana Touch is a fair handicapper who has won twice at this track from nine runs and also has a win on standard to slow ground from nine attempts. He has posted an RPR of 86 and shown consistency this year with two wins from his last six starts though his Topspeed figure of 68 suggests he does not always produce his best at this trip. Trainer John Butler has a 10% strike rate from 806 runs here while David Egan is on 12% from 543 rides at the track. Their combined record reads 21 wins from 165 rides with an A/E of 1.23. Settling in midfield from draw 8, he should be suited by the muddling pace and remains a major player on his AW record.
Lady Manzor KTB Fit 63/100
Lady Manzor is a useful performer who has won once and placed three times from five starts on standard to slow going here. She has been consistent in recent months without progressing beyond her RPR of 90 and is now trying the 1m trip for the first time after placing over it without winning. Trainer Amanda Perrett holds a 12 percent strike rate from 741 runs at Kempton while Kieran Shoemark is 10 percent from 772 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will be hoping the race develops a strong pace to run at from her draw in stall 9. Her recent form of -86444 shows steady placed efforts and she holds a TS of 74.
Billy Mill KTB Fit 61/100
Billy Mill is a fair handicapper who has run to form on his last three starts and looks sure to go well again from stall 7. He has won twice at Kempton from 21 runs here and the trainer’s 10% strike rate from 722 rides at the track is in line with market expectations. The jockey’s 9% record from 294 rides at Kempton is slightly below par while the horse himself is only modestly effective at this trip having been placed without winning in eight of 22 attempts. Saffie Osborne takes the mount for Rod Millman, whose trainer-jockey figures read 8/41 with an A/E of 1.50. His recent form of 866322 and TS of 77 mark him out as a consistent threat in mid-division.
Hour By Hour KTB Fit 60/100
Hour By Hour is a fair performer on his best days but has failed to fire on his last five starts and was well held on his only previous visit to this track. The trainer has had too few runners here to form any reliable view while the jockey’s modest strike rate at Kempton does little to lift confidence. Trip and ground look suitable enough on paper yet the recent form leaves him with plenty to prove. Adam Kirby’s yard shows a 40% strike rate with Charles Bishop from a small sample of 10 rides. Drawn in stall 1 and usually held up, he has an RPR of 85 to his name but his form figures of 4788-0 tell a story of recent underperformance.
The rest of the field
CriminalKTB Fit 60/100
Criminal has a solid recent record with an RPR of 89 that marks him as fair at this level and he has shown up well at Kempton in the past with a placed effort from three runs here. The drop back to 1m is an unknown after his last run over 1m2f and he has failed to win in two previous tries at the trip. Richard Hughes posts a 13 percent strike rate from 621 runs at the track while William Buick is operating at 22 percent from 1126 rides.
I Am MeKTB Fit 58/100
I Am Me is a fair performer on his figures and arrives in decent nick with three straight placed efforts including a recent third here. He has won on this track and on standard to slow ground though his overall strike rate is modest and the trainer and jockey both show below-par records at Kempton. Stall ten is no help on a track where the draw can matter.
Bold SuitorKTB Fit 55/100
Bold Suitor arrives in solid nick with recent form of 43-421 and an RPR of 87 that matches his fair level. He has won over this trip in the past though steps back up from 7f today while his record on standard to slow is just one win from six runs. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 12 runs at Kempton and Georgia Dobie is 6% from 176 rides here.
American StateKTB Fit 55/100
American State is a fair performer on his best days and arrives in solid form having won twice on the AW this year. He has placed here once from a single run at Kempton and has won three times over today's 1m trip. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate at the track from a big sample is a negative while the jockey's record is more respectable.
Celestias CometKTB Fit 54/100
Celestias Comet is a fair performer who has shown consistent form of late and has already placed over this trip. He has run well here without winning, finishing second on his latest visit to Kempton, and has handled standard to slow ground. The yard have a solid 17% strike rate at the track from a large sample while the 7 lb claimer is unproven here.
My Boy HarryKTB Fit 53/100
My Boy Harry is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 85 and has won over this trip as well as at Kempton. He showed his ability when landing a similar race on his penultimate start but ran no sort of race last time and the yard's 5% strike rate at the track is a concern. Luke Morris has a solid 9% record here from a huge sample yet the combination needs everything to fall right from stall five.
Just TypicalKTB Fit 50/100
Just Typical is a fair handicapper who has won five times over this trip from 20 attempts and arrives here off a mark that looks manageable on his best RPRs. He has been largely consistent through a busy career but showed only modest form when fifth on his most recent start and was well held on his sole previous visit to this track. The yard and jockey both operate at a 10% strike rate here with solid A/E figures.
Island HeroKTB Fit 50/100
Island Hero has shown fair ability with an RPR of 82 and placed once at this trip from four starts. He returns from a long absence in first-time headgear while carrying a career record of just four runs in the last year. The trainer holds an 11 percent strike rate at Kempton from 323 runs and the jockey an 8 percent record from 1066 rides here.
Freddie's StarKTB Fit 46/100
Freddie's Star is a modest performer who showed ability when third over C&D in December but has run poorly in two starts since. First-time cheekpieces are now tried from a wide draw and the yard's modest 8% strike-rate at Kempton offers little encouragement. Trip and ground both remain unproven on this small sample.
KTB verdict
Silca Bay stands out as the KTB Selection on a Fit rating of 69 and with the best combination of recent form, course record and class drop. A winner last time out from an RPR of 88, his three wins from nine starts at Kempton and identical record on standard to slow ground make him ideally suited to the conditions, with the 7lb claimer a useful asset from stall 13. The muddling pace shape should play to his midfield run-style. Main dangers are headed by Havana Touch, who has won twice here and brings strong consistency, alongside Lady Manzor with her useful RPR of 90 and placed course form, and the in-form Billy Mill from a good draw.
KTB Selection Silca Bay
This is the narrative read of the 6:40 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Kempton?
Silca Bay with three wins from nine runs.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The muddling and tactical pace with no obvious front-runner should suit those ridden close to the pace or in midfield.
What recent form does the selection bring into the race?
Silca Bay has recent form figures of 4-4041, including a win on his latest start.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at the track among those with meaningful data?
Adam Kirby with a 33% strike rate from three runs.
Who is the only horse wearing first-time headgear?
Island Hero in first-time headgear.
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